15 Dec=Tropical Depression Update /due By Sat Am-Leyte- Northern Sebu

[Call me bubba]

ISSUED AT : 5:00 AM 15 DECEMBER 2011VALID BEGINNING : 5:00 AM TODAY UNTIL 5:00 AM TOMORROWSYNOPSIS: AT 2:00 AM TODAY, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACEDATA AT 1,100 KM EAST OF MINDANAO (7.0°N, 136.0°E) WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KPH NEAR THECENTER. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 KPH./////////////////////////////////////////////////////////http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisory.htmlCURRENT STORM INFORMATIONTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu December 15 2011Location of Center: 7.2º N Lat 135.6º E LonDistance 1: 66 km East of P.A.R.Distance 2: 121 km East of Koror, PalauDistance 3: 376 km SW of Yap, FSMDistance 4: 1,033 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur, PHDistance 5: 1,147 km ESE of Surigao City, PHMaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the centerPeak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)Towards: Palau & Philippine SeaCPA [ETA] to Leyte: Saturday Early Morning [2-3AM PhT]12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical StormSize (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind ProfileMax Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ftPossible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Dec 153-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*27W (Pre-SENDONG) is expected to continue moving generally WNW for the next 3 days...with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning and pass very close to Palau Island before noon today. It will then make landfall over Leyte by early Saturday morning...crossing Northern Cebu, the northern tip of Negros & Panay thru Saturday afternoon. 27W will be in the vicinity of Northern Palawan-Calamian Group Area by early morning Sunday.Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 27W (Pre-SENDONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and 27W could become a Typhoon before making landfall on Saturday.The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming a strong Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves WNW across the warm Philippine Sea [2AM DEC 16: 8.7N 130.8E @ 85kph].SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a minimal Typhoon as it bears down the Gulf of Leyte...prepares to make landfall [2AM DEC 17: 10.4N 125.6E @ 120kph].SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a TS after crossing Central & Northern Visayas...in the vicinity of Calamian-Northern Palawan Area [2AM DEC 18: 11.3N 120.2E @ 100kph].