Call me bubba Posted June 15, 2012 Posted June 15, 2012 Weather Issued at: 5:00 a.m., 15 June 2012 (click here to download 5 a.m., 24-Hour Weather Forecast and Extended Weather Outlook for Selected Cities) At 4:00 a.m. today, Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 620 km east southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.3°N, 132.0°E) with maximum sustained winds of 100 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 130 kph. It is forecast to move west northwest at 15 kph. Southwest monsoon affecting Luzon. Metro Manila 24°C to 31°C Moderate to Strong Southwest Manila Bay: Moderate to Rough SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BUTCHOY” ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 15 JUNE 2012 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today) TROPICAL STORM “BUTCHOY” HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION. Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “BUTCHOY” was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 510 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.3°N, 131.0°E). Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140 kph. Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph. Forecast Positions: Tropical Storm “BUTCHOY” is expected to be at 280 km East Northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar by tomorrow morning. It will be at 380 km East Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora by Sunday morning and by Monday morning, it will be at 320 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has slowed down further as it strengthens to Category 2 Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. The typhoon is anticipated to make a sharp turn towards the northwest or north-northwest within the next 06 to 24 hours. Outermost Rainbands now spreading across the eastern coast of Northeastern Mindanao particularly Siargao Islands. GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Western Mindanao beginning today and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous. Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 15 2012 Location of Eye: 10.3º N Lat 131.2º E Lon Distance 1: 626 km ENE of Surigao City Distance 2: 649 km ESE of Borongan City Distance 3: 686 km ESE of Tacloban City Distance 4: 760 km ESE of Catarman, N.Samar Distance 5: 835 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes Distance 6: 839 km SE of Sorsogon City Distance 7: 874 km SE of Legazpi City Distance 8: 894 km SE of Caramoan, CamSur Distance 9: 916 km SE of Iriga City Distance 10: 945 km SE of Metro Naga/CWC MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts) Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts) Towards: Philippine Sea NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh) Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa) Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2 Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average] Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri June 15 http://www.typhoon20...h/advisory.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05W/05W_floater.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Peterson Posted June 15, 2012 Posted June 15, 2012 BUBBA! Do you think all this will affect my 7 am flight from Manlia to Dumagute on Saturday next? 30th or am I thinking to far ahead.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted June 15, 2012 Posted June 15, 2012 Thanks for the update, Bubba. :tiphat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Old55 Posted June 15, 2012 Forum Support Posted June 15, 2012 Thank you Bubba! :tiphat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnMyWay Posted June 15, 2012 Posted June 15, 2012 Do you think all this will affect my 7 am flight from Manlia to Dumagute on Saturday next? 30th or am I thinking to far ahead.? Jack, here is a website with some tracking maps that show it far to the north in a few days, so you should be fine. If anybody knows a good website for typhoon tracking, please pass it along. I used a few good ones for hurricane tracking in Florida, but I have not found a real good one for Asian typhoons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call me bubba Posted June 15, 2012 Author Posted June 15, 2012 (edited) Update 16 june (not able to post the maps) GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has accelerated north-northwestward during the past 12 hours...now a major Category 3 Typhoon. Outermost rainbands spreading across Eastern Visayas & Eastern Bicol. Weather Issued at: 5:00 a.m., 16 June 2012 (click here to download 5 a.m., 24-Hour Weather Forecast and Extended Weather Outlook for Selected Cities) At 4:00 a.m. today, Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 480 km east northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (12.2°N, 130.5°E) with maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140 kph. It is forecast to move north northwest at 15 kph. Southwest monsoon affecting Luzon. Metro Manila 24°C to 31°C Moderate to Strong Southwest Manila Bay: Moderate to Rough :unsure: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL STORM “BUTCHOY” (GUCHOL) ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 16 JUNE 2012 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today) TROPICAL STORM “BUTCHOY” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW MOVING IN A NORTH NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “BUTCHOY” was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 480 km East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (12.2°N, 130.5°E). Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140 kph. Movement: Forecast to move North Northwest at 15 kph. Forecast Positions: Tropical Storm “BUTCHOY” is expected to be at 420 km Northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar tomorrow morning and at 430 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, it is expected to be at 490 km Northeast of Basco,Batanes. CURRENT STORM INFORMATION Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 15 2012 Location of Eye: 12.5� N Lat 130.2� E Lon Distance 1: 531 km ENE of Borongan City Distance 2: 584 km ENE of Tacloban City Distance 3: 608 km East of Catarman, N.Samar Distance 4: 661 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes Distance 5: 675 km ESE of Sorsogon City Distance 6: 708 km ESE of Legazpi City Distance 7: 708 km ESE of Caramoan, CamSur Distance 8: 744 km ESE of Iriga City Distance 9: 768 km ESE of Metro Naga/CWC Distance 10: 810 km ESE of Daet, CamNorte MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts) Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts) Towards: Philippine Sea NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh) Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa) Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3 Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) [Average] Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] Wunder TrackMap (for Public): http://www.typhoon20...h/advisory.html http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ Edited June 15, 2012 by Call me Bubba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted June 16, 2012 Posted June 16, 2012 BUBBA! Do you think all this will affect my 7 am flight from Manlia to Dumagute on Saturday next? 30th or am I thinking to far ahead.? Hello Jack P, Current trajectory models or forecast has this particular typhoon tracking along the eastern coast of Luzon. Heading north, northwest and if it does make landfall, it may hit the northern tip of Luzon. After that, they usually proceed more north west towards Taiwan. Unless, there is another one building up behind this one, I think your flight on June 30th should be OK. I'm sure every international pilot will make sound decisions and divert if necessary. Worst case scenario would be a delay on your arrival to Manila. May I suggest for peace of mind, both you and your family track your flight using any near real time flight tracker. Just Google international flight tracker and choose which one will work for you and your wife. Respectfully -- Jake 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Peterson Posted June 16, 2012 Posted June 16, 2012 BUBBA! Do you think all this will affect my 7 am flight from Manlia to Dumagute on Saturday next? 30th or am I thinking to far ahead.? Hello Jack P, Current trajectory models or forecast has this particular typhoon tracking along the eastern coast of Luzon. Heading north, northwest and if it does make landfall, it may hit the northern tip of Luzon. After that, they usually proceed more north west towards Taiwan. Unless, there is another one building up behind this one, I think your flight on June 30th should be OK. I'm sure every international pilot will make sound decisions and divert if necessary. Worst case scenario would be a delay on your arrival to Manila. May I suggest for peace of mind, both you and your family track your flight using any near real time flight tracker. Just Google international flight tracker and choose which one will work for you and your wife. Respectfully -- Jake Late arrival in Manila will be Ok as I have a 10 Hour Layover, it is the Domestic Flight, I was More concerned about but thanks for the thought, I will keep my eye on things. So nice to have this information Feed :) Cheers Bubba :thumbsup: Jack P. :tiphat: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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