Plane Missing

[Jollygoodfellow]

The airline has identified the co-pilot as the one who gave the last verbal command ("All right, good night") from the plane some minutes after the 1st communication system had been turned off. So much for the "pilot incapacitating the co-pilot" theory.   

 

And here they say the plane had already changed course.

 

 

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was already 12 minutes into its diverted course when the plane's co-pilot calmly signed off to ground control before the plane vanished, it has been revealed by a US official.

 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2014/03/19/13/39/mh370-pilot-sign-off-12-minutes-into-new-flight-path

[Americano]

Pan-pan vs Mayday international distress calls:

 

Three calls of pan-pan in radiotelephone communications, is used to signify that there is an urgency on board a boat, ship, aircraft, or other vehicle but that, for the time being at least, there is no immediate danger to anyone's life or to the vessel itself. When there is immediate danger to anyone's life or to the vessel the distress signal Mayday should be used.

[Thomas]

Now it's found. Crashed far west of Perth, Australia, "in the middle of nowhere" far from any airport. I haven't heared of any reason it went there.

[Markham]

Now it's found. Crashed far west of Perth, Australia, "in the middle of nowhere" far from any airport. I haven't heared of any reason it went there.

No, it has not been found, however the search and rescue operation being led and coordinated by Australia is now a search and recovery operation.

 

Inmarsat engineers spent the weekend analysing satellite "ping" data from several weeks' worth of 777 flights made by Malaysia Airlines and applied doppler effect  physics in their calculations as to where the ill-fated plane went. They can say, with a high degree of certainty, that flight MH370 maintained a flight level of over 30,000 feet and flew south, probably due south. Aircraft compasses are magnetic and the further south you travel from the Equator down the Australian west coast, the greater the magnetic deviation westwards (35 degrees around Perth).

 

The Australians have a highly-developed and very competent search-and-rescue capability and I find it reassuring that it will be the Australians - and not the Malaysians - who will be conducting the investigation into the loss of this airplane.

 

There are doubtless some rather worried Lloyds of London investors (the so-called "names") who will shortly have to pay-up on a number of insurance policies. Around US$150 million will be paid to the leasing company that owned the plane, Rolls Royce will get a few tens of millions of Dollars for the engines (RR do not sell their engines, only lease them) and compensation totalling few hundred million Dollars will be paid to the relatives of the 239 passengers and crew and the owners of the freight. Malaysia Airlines will get a token payment towards the costs of the search operation, about $4 million, but the airline will have to cover the remaining cost of that operation - which could cost upwards of $50 million.

Edited March 24, 2014 by Markham

[Dave Hounddriver]

They can say, with a high degree of certainty, that flight MH370 maintained a flight level of over 30,000 feet and flew south,

 

Before I went to bed last night, CNN was broadcasting that there was a high degree of certainty that the plane had dropped to 12,000 feet and thus could not make that distance due to increased fuel consumption at that altitude.

 

I wonder whose 'degree of certainty' is higher?

[Markham]

 

They can say, with a high degree of certainty, that flight MH370 maintained a flight level of over 30,000 feet and flew south,

 

Before I went to bed last night, CNN was broadcasting that there was a high degree of certainty that the plane had dropped to 12,000 feet and thus could not make that distance due to increased fuel consumption at that altitude.

 

I wonder whose 'degree of certainty' is higher?

 

Whenever I read or hear any claims made by the press, I check what members of aviation forums that are populated by professionals - including B777 pilots - are saying. In many cases such claims are unceremoniously debunked and many comment that of all the media outlets, CNN and the Daily Mail are the worst offenders.

 

Inmarsat engineers know that handshake signals between its satellite, serving the Indian Ocean, and the aircraft were made at hourly intervals with the last being completed at 8.11am Malaysian Time (UTC+8). Inmarsat has also revealed that there was an "incomplete" handshake at 8.19am, therefore they are very confident in being able to state that the aircraft was under power and airborne certainly until 8.11am - the company is still investigating that final, "incomplete" handshake.

 

Apparently a B777 flying at about 450 knots and at 35,000 feet will continue to be airborne for around 100kms after it runs out of fuel. This aircraft does not nose dive but will steadily descent and eventually "belly-flop". Because of the uncertainty of its exact airspeed, whilst under power, and the fact that there are heavy seas and quite strong ocean currents, the search area is enormous. As the spokesman for the Australian Maritime Search Authority commented, "we haven't found the haystack yet".

[Dave Hounddriver]

 

They can say, with a high degree of certainty, that flight MH370 maintained a flight level of over 30,000 feet and flew south,

 

Before I went to bed last night, CNN was broadcasting that there was a high degree of certainty that the plane had dropped to 12,000 feet and thus could not make that distance due to increased fuel consumption at that altitude.

 

I wonder whose 'degree of certainty' is higher?

 

 

 

Today on CNN:  Piers Morgan had a 777 pilot on his show and they pointed out that the multi-nation search had just picked up and left the area they were searching where there was a 'high degree of certainty' of finding the plane and are now searching a different area.  Its in the same sea but so far from the last search area that you could put Great Britain in between the two search areas (Piers Morgan's words).

 

So the 777 pilot suggested that the captain of the airplane had a major problem, dropped to 12,000 feet, headed to the mainland, set the autopilot, and passed out. The area they are searching now is where the plane would have gone down when it ran out of fuel if that pilot is correct.

[Markham]

The search area was moved to the north east because the Malaysians came up with "credible evidence" that the plane was flying faster than was originally thought and, because more fuel would have been used (due to the increased speed), it didn't fly as far or for as long. I guess this "credible evidence" was drip-fed them by one of their neighbours (Indonesia?) whose military radar may have been tracking the flight - how come it took 3 weeks for this to be known?!

 

But that falls down because the plane definitely handshaked with the Inmarsat satellite at 0811 GMT therefore it was still under power at that time. And Inmarsat scientists have established that the plane was on the so-called 40 degree arc (the angle between the point on the earth's surface directly below the satellite, the satellite and the plane was 40 degrees).

 

So if it was flying faster then either Malaysia Airlines discovered it was carrying more fuel than they originally stated or the increased speed was the result of the plane benefiting from a strong tail wind. If anything, the search area should be further from Australia along that 40 degree arc, rather than closer!

[Markham]

One of the more accurate reports CNN has made:

 

 

Who knew?