Heavy Rains Expected As ‘Glenda’ Enters Ph

[Medic Mike]

Tropical storm Glenda (international name Rammasun) is expected to bring heavy to intense rains over a wide swath of Luzon, including Metro Manila, in the next three days after it entered the Philippine area of responsibility late Sunday night.

Rains will be felt beginning late this evening,  according to the Philippine Atmospherics, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

Pagasa warned that the Bicol region and Quezon province will experience intense rains beginning Tuesday, as Tropical Storm Glenda moves towards Central Luzon.

Southern and central Luzon including Metro Manila will also experience rains and gusty winds beginning Tuesday, and the weather is expected to turn stormy by Tuesday evening until Wednesday.

In a news conference Sunday night, PAGASA officials also warned of floods and landslides in Central Luzon (Region 3) and some areas of Ilocos (Region 1) and Cagayan Valley (Region 2) as a result of Tropical Storm Glenda.

Tropical Storm Glenda is sure to make landfall, according to weather forecaster Jori Luiz.

He said that if the storm maintained its current path, it would make landfall over Aurora, Quezon.

However if there were changes in the path, the storm could hit land over Isabela or Cagayan, or somewhere over Bicol, he said.

“We’re forecasting heavy rains will occur when Tropical Storm Glenda hits land,” said chief weather forecaster Robert Sawi.

The storm is expected to exit over Zambales or Bataan on Thursday.

The storm’s effect will be felt Monday morning over Zambales, Bataan, Cavite and Batangas, while the rest of Luzon will begin to experience rains by Monday night, according to Luiz.

He said Mindanao and parts of Eastern Visayas would experience rains beginning Monday night, with the storm enhancing the southwest monsoon.

Luiz said Tropical Storm Glenda would bring intense rains over Bicol region by Tuesday night.

Dr. Vicente Malano, Pagasa chief, said the storm would likely dump “intense rains” at 20 millimeters per hour.

Located east of the Bicol region and moving westwards, Tropical Storm Glenda has been tracked to enter the Philippine area of responsibility past 10 p.m. Sunday.

As it neared the country Sunday, Tropical Storm Glenda packed sustained winds at 65 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour.

Pagasa said the storm might intensify into a typhoon upon entering the Philippine area of responsibility.

Pagasa chief hydrologist Sonia Serrano said the storm would hopefully bring up the water levels in the country’s dams, including the Angat Dam which supplies Metro Manila’s water needs. She said all dams have been below normal levels.

http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/35864/heavy-rains-expected-as-glenda-enters-ph

[Medic Mike]

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

CEBU City’s disaster council activated all its barangay-based disaster response groups as tropical storm Glenda entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Although Cebu City will not be directly hit by the storm, Cebu City Councilor Dave Tumulak said that officials will keep monitoring the weather since rain and strong winds may be felt. Tumulak chairs the Cebu City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (CCDRRMC).

“Glenda will be felt in Northern Cebu but it will be very minimal,” said bureau chief Oscar Tabada of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pag-asa) in Mactan.

Light to moderate and at times heavy rains with strong winds will continue to occur in Metro Cebu today, Tabada said.

Even as Glenda approached, the Archdiocese of Cebu took some steps toward the creation of “parish response teams” that will prepare for and react to calamities.

During a seminar on disaster preparedness in the St. Pedro Calungsod Chapel in the South Road Properties, Cebu Archbishop Jose Palma approved the creation of groups within parishes as a way to respond to calamities.

“Disaster preparedness should be part of our lives,” the archbishop said.

As of yesterday, 20 Kaoshioung buses were on standby in Cebu City to ferry stranded passengers in case of heavy rains and floods.

Classes proceeded as usual.

“We will wait for the assessment of CCDRMC. If there is a need for the cancellation of classes, then we will do it,” Cebu City Mayor Michael Rama said.

As of 5 p.m. yesterday, Glenda was located 500 kilometers from Legazpi City, Albay. It has maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 140 kph.

Glenda is expected to leave the Philippine area of responsibility by Thursday morning.

Signal No. 1 was raised in Romblon, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Southern Aurora, Northern Quezon including Polilo Islands and Metro Manila in Luzon, and Eastern Samar, Samar and Biliran Island in Visayas.

Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Masbate including Burias, Sorsogon, Albay, Marinduque and southern part of Quezon in Luzon and Northern Samar in the Visayas are under signal No. 2.

Signal No. 3 was also raised in Catanduanes.

Meanwhile, Fr. Socrates Saldua, chairman of the Archdiocesan Commission on Service, told reporters that the commission and Smart Communications organized the disaster preparedness seminar yesterday.

About 400 priests and lay people participated.

Saldua said they are proposing the creation of a 100-member response team in parishes that would help their communities cope with calamities.

“We are more ready when it comes to disasters compared to before. We now listen to advisories and prepare ourselves for the worst case scenario,” Saldua added.

For Fr. Lyndon Ruiz, parish priest of the Sacred Heart of Jesus Parish in Sitio Tankong, Barangay Mojon in Bantayan, told Sun.Star Cebu that typhoon Yolanda in November last year taught a lesson that his parishioners learned.

He added that parishes, especially smaller ones, should strengthen the participation of their parishioners to help communities in times of trouble, such as calamities.

 

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2014/07/15/rainy-weather-seen-glenda-arrives-353916

[Call me bubba]

thanks MEDIC MIKE for the news, :no:

here is the latest from the TYPHOON2000.ph web site this may be more helpful as it includes a map of the projected path and landfall

the PAGASA web site is not accessing from my location

 

http://typhoon2000.ph/update.html

 

TYPHOON RAMMASUN (GLENDA) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014
Next Update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 July 2014

Typhoon RAMMASUN (GLENDA) continues to strengthen while still over the Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Bicol-Samar Area...threat to Bicol Region and Northern Samar increases. The potential landfall area of this storm shall be over Albay-Southern Camarines Sur this evening, July 15.

Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Typhoon VERA (BEBENG) which crossed the Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Metro Manila on July 14, 1983.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Central Luzon and Northern Visayas particularly the eastern coastal areas should closely monitor the development of TY Rammasun (Glenda).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.

BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, AND SOUTHERN QUEZON:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced beginning Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more...and up to Typhoon Force Winds of more than 120 kph near the center of Rammasun. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, CAVITE, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES AND PANGASINAN:  Heavy to extreme rains of 100 mm or more will be experienced beginning Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening...with Tropical Storm Force Winds of 65 kph or more. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against strong winds, storm surges, flashfloods and landslides.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the west-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.8N 126.3E)
About: 185 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 285 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 200 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 90 kilometers from the center
Past Movement: West @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Bicol Region

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Rammasun (Glenda) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours

...and will continue its track through 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, it shall turn more to the northwest.

On the forecast track, the typhoon will enter the warm waters of the Albay Gulf Tuesday afternoon...making landfall over Northeastern Albay by Tuesday evening (approx. 7-9 PM)...

and crossing the Southern part of Camarines Sur between 9 PM to 12 AM.

 

Rammasun (Glenda) will be traversing Southern Quezon and Metro Manila Wednesday morning and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by early Wednesday evening.

By Thursday afternoon, the typhoon shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving across the South China Sea towards Southern China.

Rammasun will maintain its strength during the next 24 hours

...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm by 48 hours after traversing Bicol and Southern Luzon.

It will then regain strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas through 72 hours.

Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph (Category 2 Typhoon) by Friday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Crossing the Southern part of Quezon...starts to weaken...about 180 km southeast of Metro Manila [2AM JUL 16: 13.8N 122.5E @ 150kph].

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippine Sea...about 265 km northwest of Subic, Zambales [2AM JUL 17: 15.9N 118.1E @ 110kph].

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR...regains Typhoon intensity while traversing the South China Sea...about 525 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM JUL 18: 17.7N 114.0E @ 165kph].

 

 

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

 

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/weather-bulletin-update

 

 

here are 2 other satellite photos that can help understand the "storm"

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/largec.html?area=1&element=0&mode=UTC

Edited July 15, 2014 by Pittman apartments Sgn

[MacBubba]

It is a little disconcerting to be so far away from our beach house in Marinduque.  I hope she holds up well.

[OnMyWay]

The storm has gotten stronger.  Now a signal 3 as it hits the islands southeast of Manila, then it is supposed to be a 2 when it head to a Manila, then back to 1 in our area, Subic Bay.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2014/Typhoon-Rammasun

 

We are getting the first heavy rain bands at 4 pm.

 

Manila could have some major flooding but the good thing is, the storm is moving reasonable fast at 10 mph.  If it slows down over Manila that would be very bad.

 

Stay safe!

[earthdome]

An hour ago we had heavy rain from the first band. The power blinked off for a few seconds.

Edited July 15, 2014 by earthdome

[Jack Peterson]

:unsure: Here in South Western Dumaguete, it has been raining most of the day, we had a lot of Wind Yesterday, Did a little damage to the Wooden homes up the road aways, the Barangay I am living in is fairly open on the outskirts but sheltered in the Centre. We tend to only , get High winds from the main roads. Biggest problem really is that the Banana trees, get so Waterlogged, they just keep falling all around us

 

My Harvest, has been 50% down this Year.

 

 

JP :tiphat:

[jon1]

It looks to me like the landfall will be just southeast of Legaspi. If you haven't already prepared now is the 11th hour. Things like charge up your phones (with load also), put ice in the freezer to keep your food viable during the power outages, stow anything that can blow around, stock up on water for drinking, batteries for flashlights etc.

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0914.gif

 

Based on the above advisory they are forecasting 80KTS sustained and 100KTS gusts (92mph - 115mph) when it passes thru Subic Bay at 2pm tomorrow afternoon.

Edited July 15, 2014 by jon1

[Medic Mike]

The Cebu City government has placed on standby its disaster personnel, Kaoshiung buses and heavy equipment for quick response in case of landslides and flooding.

The state weather bureau said that Tropical Storm Glenda will not directly pass Central Visayas and Cebu but may bring rains as it pulls the southwest monsoon or habagat to the region.

Barangay disaster brigades have been activated in case there is a need to evacuate danger zone occupants.

“We are monitoring the movement of Glenda because it can bring a lot of rain clouds and rain,” said City Councilor Dave Tumulak.

Twenty Kaoshiung buses are standing by to evacuate flood and landslide victims as needed.

Heavy equipment units were also placed at the South Road Properties and an extension site in the mountain barangay of Taptap.

Metro Cebu may experience light to moderate rains in the next two days, according to Jomar Eclarinal, weather specialist at the Mactan station of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa),

He said they are on the lookout for thunderstorms that may develop as Glenda strengthens the habagat.

As of 5 p.m. yesterday, Glenda intensified and continues to move westward to the Bicol Region.

“Glenda will make landfall somewhere in Virac, Catanduanes on Tuesday morning,” said Eclarinal.

It packs winds of 110 kph and gusts up to 140 kph.

http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/35997/glenda-skips-cebu-but-expect-rains

[jon1]

Here is a nice satellite loop of this storm.  http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shphil.html

 

It packs winds of 110 kph and gusts up to 140 kph.

 

This really concerns me. Why are the numbers of the Philippines media so far off of what JTWC, NOAA and Japan are predicting at landfall (100KTS=115MPH=185KmPH Sustained, 125KTS=143MPH=231KmPH)?