Pi Population Bomb: Retreat Or Dig In ?

[manofthecoldland]

   Perhaps you've heard the lyrics...."Shall I go, or shall I stay?"

   My fellow ex-pat wasn't exactly singing it the other day when he dropped by for a cold one at the beach resort where a few of us spend frequent afternoons on sunny, breezy days.... but it was playing in his head. He had his 3-4 year old son with him. 

   He had left the states after selling his small business to retire here with his c. 40yr old Filipina bride five years ago. He had been enthusiastic, optimistic and happy as witnessed by his old wordpress.com blog re his housebuildng and new son.

   Having done his homework, he chose one of the nearby, high-end gated developments and imported both designer, materials and specialty construction crew all the way from MNL to fulfill his dream and build to very high standards.

   His wife was very happy here, for obvious reasons, but now the one thing that was wearing on him was his concern for his little boy.... their only child... his best bud and the apple of his eye.

   He had been simmering awhile. 

   Today he laid the population grenade on the table, saying, "The population here will double within the next 20 years. I don't want my son growing up here. I want to take him camping and hunting and on road trips, but thats not available here.  I want to take him fishing, but there aren't any fish to be caught here. I want him to go to a really great school, but they don't have the standards I want for him. There's no one to play with him in the sub-division and no park. Things will only get worse."

   What do you say to a nice guy when he tells you this?

   His wife wasn't onboard yet with the idea of leaving her perfect life here. He had work to do on that score.

   Since he's still short of early social security benefits, if he goes back he'll have to work a couple of years, but he's still fully capable and willing. He has offers for work and would have no problem providing for his family back in the states. He's the third guy here in as many years, who I know of that started a second family late in life and decided to pull up stakes for the sake of his children's future. They don't see a good future here for their children due to ...... circumstances that will probably not change, but more likely get worse.

   Population growth was the nexus of his reasoning, but I'm sure his unstated reasons were the many other social factors that he saw as a threat to a successful future for his son here.

   

   When I got home, I went to www.worldometers.info to check his stated population 'fact'.

   I'm happy to report that he was wrong... on the numbers.

 

Philippines population facts:

1955 population:     22 million        Fertility rate:  7.42

1970    "                  35   "                  "          "      6.54

2000    "                  78   "                  "          "      3.9

2016    "                 102   "                 "          "      3.0

 

Population forecast

 

2020                       108 million

2025                       116

2030                       123

2050                       148

 

   This country has quintupled in pop. number since I was born, and tripled + since my wife was, but it isn't expected to double again in quite a while.

 

   Do you think he'll be pleased with my findings?  Or perhaps it would be better to keep my trap shut.

 

FYI:   There is a good locked thread on-site, entitled "Over Population", Oct. 31, 2011. Some of the contributors fell off the active list. Hope they're still alive and doing well, even if living somewhere else.

 

   This is a great place to live in retirement in the post-family raising stage of life, but for others who are starting second families, there are many other things to consider and weigh before digging in.

 

   Your thoughts, experiences and solutions?

[chris49]

Your thoughts, experiences and solutions?

 

My kids went to college in the USA. I paid some of it, and the balance was scholarships, grants, and my younger girl had 2 years paid by the Navy, then used the GI Bill.  She paid the Navy with 6 years of service. So there are ways.

 

My kids got the higher level HS Education attending British Schools in Riyadh and later in Colombo, Sri Lanka, So for me, the key to the whole thing is the relative strength of the HS Education...it's weaker here and generally in the provinces it's weaker.  But that's not to say a Private HS under the new 6 years (up from 4) curriculum, is significantly weaker than a US Public School.

 

As in your friends case, he did go for the high end living, where it might have been wiser to scale that down and provide more for his son's education. The fact that he's going back might be the result of poor planning more than anything. And did he have medium and long term plans, or only short term?

 

I now have 2 small kids and I'm geared up for the best local education available.  Because I'm past retirement, that's my only option, but I am comfortable with it  The US Passport and having siblings in the USA makes it possible for them to move on later.

[robert k]

I don't think anyone has population numbers I would trust for the Philippines.

[Jack Peterson]

I don't think anyone has population numbers I would trust for the Philippines.

  :hystery:  maybe 10 more in that short space of time Born  :thumbsup:

[Dave Hounddriver]

 What do you say to a nice guy when he tells you this?

 

I would seriously consider it myself at some point in time.

 

I have noticed that the kids who have the brightest future in Philippines are either from influential families, from rich families, marry into rich families, or follow the OFW trail.  This does not sound like a bright future for any kid of mine because I am far from rich.  If I had one here I would seriously consider moving to a place where he/she would have a brighter future.  Philippines is all about Me.  I am happy here.  But I am not filipino and have trouble putting Me first when there is a young one involved.

[Methersgate]

Well, I am NOT now in the Philippines. The reason for leaving was indeed the education of my children, and their career prospects 

 

I have two sons and a stepson, spaced seven years apart. My 21 year old son was born in Manila but grew up in the UK, he is a merchant navy cadet so he is in a career which he could have followed had he stuck with Filipino citizenship, but he has the advantage of dual nationality and perhaps a better all round education. The 14 year old was born in the UK and wants to be a doctor; he is certainly better off in the UK education system. The seven year old is enjoying his first year in the British system and loves it; his mother is sure that he is doing better here.    

[ITGeek]

Here are some interesting statistics compiled by Deagle in forecasting countries populations and GDP changes over next 10 years:

http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx

Interesting how US is forecast to only have 67 million people in 2025, while Philippines is to remain about same.  The US GDP also falls, while Philippines GDP increases almost 50%.  Who would guess Philippines economy will outpace the US.  Leaves me wondering what happens to the US to have 200 million population reduction.

 

As with anything on the internet, take it with a grain of salt...

Edited February 16, 2016 by ITGeek

[robert k]

I would not discard a man on the spot personal observation so lightly. Possibly the population of the country may not double by 2025 but the population of the city (here?) he lives in could? Without some serious investment, even modest increases in population could overstress the seriously overworked system.

[Kuya John]

Sounds like your friend has a touch of home sickness

Every child is a blessing, education wise the US would be the best option

but that would mean putting any retirement plans on hold for the next 10 years a least!

Hard decision to make only he can make it.

[Hey Steve]

Who knows for sure what the projected population will be by 2025 as that report said. I take it with a grain of salt. One factor is the OFW card that (who knows for now) can play out. World events in HK and Middle East could force a heck of a lot of OFW's home-there's no guarantee there-which would further stress the economy in the Philippines.