New President

[davewe]

I found it interesting to see the enthusiasm among Filipinos - the desire and hope for change. My wife was a very passionate Duterte supporter and when we were in Cebu and Dumaguete last month I was pleasantly surprised at all the excitement surrounding his candidacy.

That being said we all know that social change moves glacially. It is absolutely true that he changed many things for the better in Davao but that change occurred over decades, not months. So anyone who expects all their pet peeves to be resolved in the short term is kidding themselves. That doesn't happen anywhere.

As to the original question, I wouldn't expect anything to impact expats significantly - well except for the bars closing at 1:00 :)

[Larry45]

Duterte only has 6 years to implement his program, so he can't afford to "move slowly" and build social change like he did in Davao with his mayoral dynasty.  And that's part of the worry, that he's forced to make radical changes to accomplish any of his goals in such a short time.  But I'm all for law and order, and establishing some discipline among society here.  An improved and prosperous Philippines is good for everyone, except the bottom feeding sexpat who feasts on the low hanging fruit.  A safer and more prosperous Philippines would attract higher quality tourists and expats, and maybe we can finally be viewed by the locals in a better light.  Time will tell.
 

[MikeSwede]

16 minutes ago, Larry45 said:

Duterte only has 6 years to implement his program, so he can't afford to "move slowly" and build social change like he did in Davao with his mayoral dynasty.  And that's part of the worry, that he's forced to make radical changes to accomplish any of his goals in such a short time.  […] A safer and more prosperous Philippines would attract higher quality tourists and expats, and maybe we can finally be viewed by the locals in a better light.  Time will tell.
 

You more or less wrote just what we made as a conclusion home here. Time is hard pressed and the list is way longer than for just a mayoral electorate.

God bless and may Philippines win.

[robert k]

9 hours ago, markpa said:

I guess the wait and see is with all politicians, he talks big, but I do believe some of the things he said hes done, hes done. I wish he would raise the quota from 50 to say 100 on immigration. I don't see him allowing migrants from Syria or any Muslims being allowed to come there. at 5% Muslims there already and a 3rd world country, The P.I. can't do it. With the new us bases being opened up there, I wonder where he stands on that. Like you said wait and see.Thanks.Mark

Muslims don't need the quota. Some of the terrorists are from Indonesia and I doubt they had their passport stamped. The Philippines can not stop every small boat.

[Hey Steve]

On ‎5‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 10:32 PM, Larry45 said:

Yep, "wait and see mode" here too.  I'm excited about any noise pollution ordinances, especially a fireworks ban.  And wife is obviously happy about potentially getting a 100% raise with her teaching job.  But the issue that concerns me is the patriotic, nationalistic fervor that he evokes in the masses.   It will only take one sound bite of this loose cannon saying anything derogatory about expats before it's open season on us.  Most Filipinos already view us in an opportunistic manner and tolerate us as potential benefactors, but I can envision a Duterte Philippines where the xenophobia and discrimination is much worse. I'm not being negative here, just realistic.  And I hope I'm wrong.   

This has been the tone-more or less- of discussion between my wife and I take too, Larry. His SONA in July will be interesting as many people tend to embrace fully comments from such a charismatic leader. Reactions to his speech could be very favorable too-rather than unfavorable depending on how he phrases his words on any issues related to expats-even indirectly related. I remain optimistically guarded.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Hey Steve

[markpa]

On ‎5‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 7:31 PM, Tukaram (Tim) said:

I do know some expats that are looking for other countries already, just in case.  Also, I have had a few locals ask me if I am leaving because of him. 

I am on a 'wait and see' mode also.  For the most part I don't think it will matter who's backside warms the throne. At our level what really changes?  As long we keep a good exchange rate for the money, and they don't go all anti-foreigner, I don't foresee any real issues.

I don't care for his curfew idea for kids - I see curfews as a lazy way to be authoritarian.  I do like the noise pollution ban idea, and the no alcohol after 1 AM is not bad either.  A lot of countries have alcohol hours.  

 

 

I agree with you look at when Marcos was in power, he P.I. had a very big influx of expats thben, hey it was 65 to 1 but oh well. I think he said now it was going to be 2A.M. The curfew on kids,most places have those usually 10 P.M. But I think those are to break up gang activity. The whole thing is expats will not be effected in any way. Thanks, Mark

[Methersgate]

K's extended family voted Roxas/Robredo. They live in Mindanao and are farmers and teachers mostly. One cousin who works in a call centre voted Duterte and was told of the error of her ways. I am myself a strong supporter of the Liberals as are most (not all) of my Filipino and Filipina friends. Obviously as a foreigner I am cautious about voicing my opinions.

I think that Duterte's popularity will peak with his SONA and will crash at Christmas. Here is why:

1. He has made wild promises on public sector pay. 75k within three years for the cops, a doubling of pay for teachers, and so on. These folks will want to pick up their thirteenth month at Christmas under the promised pay deals. Where will the money come from?

2. Look at his cabinet. Villar ( property developer) at The Department of Public Works and Highways? The Ampatuans' lawyer as Presidential Spokesman (the Press feel they have been kicked in the face). The people are either his old chums from Mindanao or they are GMA people (see below)...

3. He will never get his Federalism and Parliament proposals past the Congress.

4.Then we have the economic illiteracy of Duterte's proposal to establish a steel industry - but this may not be political illiteracy- his campaign was part funded by the Jacintos...

5. Where DOES he stand on China? Planting flags from jet skis one minute and selling the South Chin Sea for a railway line at the next.

6. Before Christmas he is going to have to implement those pay rises and he is going to have to release GMA. The pay rises will stoke inflation and the borrowing to pay for them will wreck the Philppines' credit rating (more inflation).

7. Then, releasing GMA - which he has already agreed to) will be tricky...

So where does this leave us?

Not in a good place. Duterte dislikes foreigners - he makes great play of his anti-Americanism - and will need to find some scapegoats when the economy falls apart and he hasn't solved all crime in six months. 

I wonder where he may look?

 

f

Edited May 20, 2016 by Methersgate

[mogo51]

These posts are all hypethetical and based on assumptions.  Only time will tell what will happen.  The people spoke loud and clear, so he has a mandate.

Edited May 20, 2016 by mogo51

[frozenmystic28]

2 hours ago, Methersgate said:

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Methersgate said:

The Ampatuans' lawyer as Presidential Spokesman (the Press feel they have been kicked in the face)

His a defense lawyer? what do you expect him to do if they hire him? it his job after all.

Edited May 20, 2016 by frozenmystic28

[Methersgate]

4 hours ago, frozenmystic28 said:

 

 

His a defense lawyer? what do you expect him to do if they hire him? it his job after all.

What I expect has nothing to do with it. I was just pointing out the reaction of journalists including the National Press Club to the appointment of Sal Panelo as Presidential Spokesman. In that capacity he has to deal with the Press...