Brown Lives Matter? Not So Much...

[Methersgate]

Sorry, Robert but the steel mill idea is so economically daft that it really must be a cover for corruption.

Duterte wants to build a steel industry at a time when the British steel industry - built and paid for with modern equipment - is closing down because the world is awash with unwanted Chinese steel. China itself has laid off two million - that's TWO MILLION steel workers in the past year - from modern plants.  Duterte wants to build a new steel plant with the necessary port and power... with what money? And why?

Be it noted that Yao (Pacific Steel) and Jacinto (former owner of National Steel) were amongst his campaign backers.

Here's my take on what will happen...

Duterte will announce a big increase in infrastructre spending.. up to 5% of GDP

One or both of his steel industry backers will buy a complete, mothballed, Chinese steel plant, cheap... (they are giving them away..) Incidentally I work for a Chinese shipping company and we move entire factories all the time...

"To encourage the new industry" a tariff will be imposed on imported steel, and preference given to "Filipino steel" (we have been here before, by the way - take another look at "The Pretenders" - written in 62...) 

What a nice deal that will be..

The Philippines has a little iron ore and a little low grade coking coal but the access and the quality is so poor that even when the ore and coal prices were double what they are today these were barely exploited for export. I'm in the business of hauling coal, iron ore and steel across oceans -at this very moment I have two ships discharging Chinese steels in the UK and another with iron ore... I know what is viable and what isn't because we have to adapt our fleet to the conditions... Phlippines steel - isn't!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2016 by Methersgate

[Methersgate]

4 hours ago, robert k said:

I think Duterte sees the need for industry that will mean jobs, better jobs. Do people need more hand outs? Or do they need jobs that will lift them higher than handouts ever could? And people working better jobs pay taxes. Might even slow some of the drain of the best and brightest. Hopefully it will cut imports, eventually. What the Philippines produces right now doesn't need the kind of support and ancillary business support that heavy industry would spawn.

Ask yourself, what does the Philippines produce? Rice, produce and booze? The Philippines assembles vehicles for foreign brands and the profits do not stay in the Philippines. Honda motorcycle parts are made in China and assembled in the Philippines. The jobs are rice for today, period.

One of the ways to determine the wealth of a country is how much steel it has per person and it is oddly accurate. Maybe not so odd when you consider all the things made from steel. If Duterte wants to build a steel mill, I'm in favor of it.

If Duterte wants to allow foreigners to own, as he has suggested, up to 60% of a business, I'd be in favor of that. If Duterte is willing to bring in foreign power companies if the present ones do not become better, I'd be in favor of that. If Duterte would allow foreign companies to compete with domestic internet providers if they don't mend their ways and improve their service, I would be in favor of that. If these changes are made, I think it would stimulate business. I think it would make investment in the Philippines more attractive. I think it would mean jobs. I think it would be a good start and much better than a handout.

If Duterte can manage half of what he says he wants, I think it would be an amazing start.

So would I. Alas, I think that  this is all going to end in tears. Look at his list of promises. An end to crime and drugs in six months. Police salaries raised to 75k for a PO1 (currently on 14k) within three years. Teachers salaries doubled. A new Constitution. Open competition in the utilities.

Frankly, this looks like the sort of list that expats come up with quite early in their time in the Philippines - we all go through that stage, don't we? We reckon we know what needs to be fixed and if we were dictator we could do it... (Along with "shoot all the priests..." Etc!).

But it's way more complex than that.

I would like to point out that Aquino did in fact create jobs - over a million fewer Filipinos are working overseas now than were doing so in 2010, and the BPO business has expanded hugely. Corruption was eliminated in the CAAP and the Philippines was restored to first world status in the airline business - there are many other examples..

The restraints on foreign ownership to 40% are not what inhibits foreign direct investment - if you want to make an investment, you will find a way. Makati is full of charming educated Filipinos who do nicely as dummies for foreign corporations. What inhibits investment is the uncertainty of the legal system, the corruption in the administration, the cost of power, and the awful infrastructure. Oh, and the lack of competition law... the reason Telstra pulled out of the mobile phone market was that they found that Globe and Smart were planning all sorts of methods that would be illegal in most countries to head them off...

Edited May 22, 2016 by Methersgate

[Methersgate]

I think this chap might be upset if he were told that corruption is part of his culture:

 

http://www.thedailypedia.com/2015/04/he-cant-even-buy-lunch-for-the-day-a-penniless-airport-guarda-penniless-airport-guard-returns-the-p-5-million-worth-of-cash-found-chooses-to-return-the-p-5-million-worth-of-cash-found/

[robert k]

6 hours ago, Methersgate said:

I think this chap might be upset if he were told that corruption is part of his culture:

 

http://www.thedailypedia.com/2015/04/he-cant-even-buy-lunch-for-the-day-a-penniless-airport-guarda-penniless-airport-guard-returns-the-p-5-million-worth-of-cash-found-chooses-to-return-the-p-5-million-worth-of-cash-found/

Really? In one post you indict the legal system and in the next you use the example of one honest man to say the culture of corruption doesn't exist?

[scott h]

In my opinion, we are getting bogged down with definitions and semantics:

Simple Definition of culture

• : the beliefs, customs, arts, etc., of a particular society, group, place, or time

• : a particular society that has its own beliefs, ways of life, art, etc.

• : a way of thinking, behaving, or working that exists in a place or organization (such as a business)

Source: Merriam-Webster's Learner's Dictionary

 

Regardless of ones definition of culture, I think we can all agree that corruption is a problem at all levels public and private, and until it is mitigated or eliminated "real" progress will be slow and difficult.

[Methersgate]

1 hour ago, robert k said:

Really? In one post you indict the legal system and in the next you use the example of one honest man to say the culture of corruption doesn't exist?

Robert, I think we may be at cross purposes here.

What I said was: "I think this chap might be upset if he were told that corruption is part of his culture:"

I didn't say that the culture of corruption didn't exist. What I am saying is that quite a number of Filipinos are not part of it, so we cannot say that it is built into their national culture, in the way that "mano po" or bagoong is. Which means that corruption can be defeated, which it could not be if it were integral to Filipino society. 

Indeed, many Filipino writers describe the rise of corruption as a fairly recent thing.

A recent example of the defeat of corruption in a Government agency has been the cleaning out of the CAAP, resulting in the lifting of the EU and US bans on Filipino carriers. 

 

 

[Methersgate]

6 minutes ago, scott h said:

In my opinion, we are getting bogged down with definitions and semantics:

Simple Definition of culture

• : the beliefs, customs, arts, etc., of a particular society, group, place, or time

• : a particular society that has its own beliefs, ways of life, art, etc.

• : a way of thinking, behaving, or working that exists in a place or organization (such as a business)

Source: Merriam-Webster's Learner's Dictionary

 

Regardless of ones definition of culture, I think we can all agree that corruption is a problem at all levels public and private, and until it is mitigated or eliminated "real" progress will be slow and difficult.

Well said, Scott. I agree entirely.

[robert k]

Little is ever done to solve a problem until it is admitted that a problem exists. I freely admit that there is a culture of corruption in America, certainly in politics, law and business, that does not mean all Americans are corrupt. Because the truth offends someone, doesn't make the truth any less true. Even if everyone on the planet agreed that what is true is not true, it would not change what IS. When you fight corruption, if you can't even admit the truth, which is being honest, you are circling the drain already.

There is a mural in Dumaguete with the words. Be Honest. Even if others will not. Even if others cannot.

I would like to ask the person who put that up if they think there is a culture of corruption.

[Jake]

5 minutes ago, robert k said:

Little is ever done to solve a problem until it is admitted that a problem exists. I freely admit that there is a culture of corruption in America, certainly in politics, law and business, that does not mean all Americans are corrupt. Because the truth offends someone, doesn't make the truth any less true. Even if everyone on the planet agreed that what is true is not true, it would not change what IS. When you fight corruption, if you can't even admit the truth, which is being honest, you are circling the drain already.

There is a mural in Dumaguete with the words. Be Honest. Even if others will not. Even if others cannot.

I would like to ask the person who put that up if they think there is a culture of corruption.

I bet you a nickel Robert that it was Jack P, from one of his famous quotes on this forum.....he, he.

[mogo51]

I was not advocating handouts, I have seen what handouts produce in Oz with the Aboriginals and it is not the answer.

I was trying to put forward that new and different attitudes may bring better results for the poor and needy.  There is evidence that I have watched and read that has not happened over the past 6 years.  This seems to be supoorted by the landslide victory of Duterte.  The people did not want more of the same.

There are some very good areas opening up if Philippines are ready to embrace them.  Where I am for example, over 80% of foreign investment is leaving Thailand as a result of military intervention here.  In addition, the work ethic  or lack of it by Thais and the propensity  of holidays for no particular reason,  has caused International Companies to look elsewhere.  

If Duterte seizes some of these opportunities that is all positive for Philippines.  If he is serious about tackling corruption as he is suggesting, that is also a  good thing.

I don't see any piositives in members here crying foul when Duterte has won by a large majority.  Sooner or later you have to suck it in and say, give it a try and see what happens.  That is what democracy is about.  What he does, whether he swears in public or whatever, the people have spoken - game over.