Strongman Popularity?

[mogo51]

On 8/18/2016 at 4:25 PM, Gratefuled said:

My wife is from Davao and she whole heartedly is in favor of President Duterte. Everywhere you go here in Davao City, you see cardboard figures of Duterte. I even had my picture taken with one. Posters are still up everywhere. His picture is everywhere. Posters on vehicles, T-shirts at the malls with his face. He is like a Robin Hood who takes away from the rich and distributes to the poor. He is cleaning up the country of drug users and dealers. He is fighting corruption, his way. He is pretty much immune from any legal action, at least so far. He is becoming a dictator and most people don't have a problem with that. 

His only flaw, in my opinion is his push for Federalism. If it ever happens, the Philippines will become divided. If the people want it, then they have no one to blame but themselves. At least most of us have a country that we can return to and live if worse comes to worse. I'm not worried.

By Federalism, do you mean a central Government, with Regions?  If so, I see no real problem.  From what I can see, Philippines like so many other countries, suffer from 'over government', my country is the same.  

Smaller Governments should provide my money for social and economic expansion?

[Benington]

59 minutes ago, Jack Peterson said:

 This is why the problems are there they don't just want the bit Aquino gave them, as with many things they want it ALL

http://business.inquirer.net/213479/island-economies-mindanao-and-sri-lanka

The official view is that Mindanao's role in the Philippines is to be its "back door" to economic growth.

However, the above article may indicate the real aim of some previously with power and influence there, who now have their hands on the levers of national power. It concludes there's a lot for Mindanao to do to develop its economy, but, if there's a few years in which the newly elected government pushes through infrastructure projects, establishes peace, followed by some years in an advantageous federal structure, then it could be in a position to do a MIndexit. Some big "ifs", but it may not stop them trying.

One senses local nationalism is growing in Mindanao, and, from some posts I have read on various forums that even includes some resident Expats!

[Jack Peterson]

3 hours ago, Benington said:

The official view is that Mindanao's role in the Philippines is to be its "back door" to economic growth.

Sorry but  There is never an Official view that we can believe,

[Gratefuled]

5 hours ago, Benington said:

At first it seems strange that a constitutional change designed to take power away from the center could be dictated by a President. But maybe not, when you remember where the President and most of his political allies come from. Mindanao would certainly be the main benificiary of a move to federalism. Could the island eventually become, de facto, a semi-autonomous or even autonomous region of the country? With its own semi-autonomous Muslim areas! 

Yes, it could become a Muslim majority island and slowly become an Iraqi-Syrian battleground.

[Gratefuled]

On 18 August 2016 at 8:09 PM, Benington said:

Duterte got under 40% of the vote in the recent election.

Yes, only 40% of the voters elected the president instead of the majority. That is one of the problems in having 5 or 6 different people all running for 1 office instead of just 2. He could have got only 30% or even 25% of the population and still win. 

Then, here in the Philippines  a vice president from a different political party runs separate. Making the vice president only important if the elected president cannot finish his term. In which case a political opposition vice-president could take over the country. 

Duterte is not in good health and has made many enemies. He is not a young man anymore so anything can happen. Remember MURPHY's LAW

[Gratefuled]

5 hours ago, mogo51 said:

By Federalism, do you mean a central Government, with Regions?  If so, I see no real problem.  From what I can see, Philippines like so many other countries, suffer from 'over government', my country is the same.

The Philippines is not like "so many other countries. It has a Muslim population that in its history was once in control of all the Philippines. The rebels who like to call themselves "freedom fighters" instead of "terrorists" want the country back in their control..

[Reboot]

The Muslims are a small minority plus they are mostly concentrated in a few areas. They aren't taking over Mindanao let alone the entire country. Doubt it.

Edited August 20, 2016 by Reboot

[robert k]

On 8/18/2016 at 7:09 AM, Benington said:

Duterte got under 40% of the vote in the recent election.

 

It happens in a lot of places (the USA) that have two party systems (defacto?) also. If half the people don't vote and the winner of the election gets 60% of the vote then the winner only got 30% of the population to vote for them but they will still call it a landslide. Duterte with 40% enjoyed broad popularity.

[Benington]

Yes, at nearly 40% Duterte got a percentage of votes cast at the top end for unrigged elections with a large number of candidates in any democratic system. I can't find a written source for the 92% the OP posted about, but the SWS organisation measured something called  "Net Trust Rating" at the beginning of his Presidency and it was at +79. Compared to the previous President's +83 in May 2010.

Not just those who voted for him but most of the population are going to give an incoming President their support at this early time, even if they have some qualms. Especially one with such an ambitious agenda.

But we mustn't get carried away by the pictures of jails crowded with those arrested or who turned themselves in as a result of the PNPs anti drugs campaign. Those pictured are very much the "low hanging fruit" of that campaign, which itself is one of the easiest of the new government's policies to implement. So far retribution has been meted out, and there is obviously some deterrence, but we await to see whether any effective rehabilitation policies can be quickly implemented to deal with all those in the jail, because it wouldn't be good if the Philippines were to reach US levels of incarceration.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/795717/sws-duterte-begins-presidency-with-excellent-trust-rating

[robert k]

13 minutes ago, Benington said:

Yes, at nearly 40% Duterte got a percentage of votes cast at the top end for unrigged elections with a large number of candidates in any democratic system. I can't find a written source for the 92% the OP posted about, but the SWS organisation measured something called  "Net Trust Rating" at the beginning of his Presidency and it was at +79. Compared to the previous President's +83 in May 2010.

Not just those who voted for him but most of the population are going to give an incoming President their support at this early time, even if they have some qualms. Especially one with such an ambitious agenda.

But we mustn't get carried away by the pictures of jails crowded with those arrested or who turned themselves in as a result of the PNPs anti drugs campaign. Those pictured are very much the "low hanging fruit" of that campaign, which itself is one of the easiest of the new government's policies to implement. So far retribution has been meted out, and there is obviously some deterrence, but we await to see whether any effective rehabilitation policies can be quickly implemented to deal with all those in the jail, because it wouldn't be good if the Philippines were to reach US levels of incarceration.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/795717/sws-duterte-begins-presidency-with-excellent-trust-rating

A lot of that could be in the name Aquino, practically Philippine royalty. It would be interesting to find out the trust rating of the outgoing president?