To Book or Not to Book, A Visa Question

[OnMyWay]

In this other thread, I talked about our trip to the U.S. year.

I've decided that Asiana, Clark/Seoul/Los Angeles is the best flight for us and also has the lowest price.  The strange thing is that the lowest price is always fluctuating back and forth between $843 and $908.  While not a deal breaker, the difference, totaled for all 5 of us, will pay for a week of rental car, so it is nothing sneeze at.  They must have a computer actively managing the pricing to try to keep the daily flights filling up at about the same rate.  I'm looking at next May, so it is still a long way out.

So when should I book?  After following the flight pricing for a few weeks now, I doubt that it will go below $843 (way lower than anyone else!).  Maybe very close to the dates they might have a fire sale on some dates, but I can't wait that long.  So I think I am ready to book next time I see $843 on dates I want.  I'm committed to making the trip so nothing will change there.  (I will buy travel insurance to cover unforeseen circumstances, which I don't think will cover the visa mentioned below).

So this leads me to my visa question.  My 12 year old step-daughter does not have her U.S. Visa yet and her interview appointment is January 31, a long time from now but well before our flights in May.

Book the flights now or wait until she has the visa in hand?

It is possible to refund for $200 penalty per head or reissue for $100 per head.  I don't quite understand these fare rules???  Rebooking free?  Reissue $100?  Help!!  How do I read this?  See here:

 

Back to the visa.  I'm confident she will be issued a visa based on the following:

1.  We will be travelling as a family and her mother has a U.S. visa with two trips to the U.S. under her belt.

2.  She has been to NZ, a visa country, and Singapore, so she has some International travel under her belt.

3.  As a family, she will be travelling with her 2 half-sisters, both dual U.S. / PH citizens, her mother and I, a U.S. citizen.

4.  I'm listed as paying for everything and will provide financial information if needed.

5.  For evidence of "the will and need to return to PH", I am going to pre-pay the next year at her school.  I'll get a 10% discount on the tuition, which is ~p40,000.  Secondly, I am thinking that buying the round-trip ticket before the interview will add value to our "will to return".  I will also have all of our schedules and plans, as well as pre-paid rental car information.  I will also have our long term lease here in Subic available if needed.

I guess the main reason for posting this is to get a couple of "go for it"s before I book About $3300 worth of tickets in the next few days.  Or maybe somebody will come up some pitfalls I have not thought of?  Hope not but I am happy to get any advice out there!!

[not so old china hand]

1 hour ago, OnMyWay said:

I'll get a 10% discount on the tuition, which is ~p40,000.

I hope you don't mind my asking but is p40,000 the discount or the full price of the annual tuition?

Edited November 21, 2016 by not so old china hand

[OnMyWay]

20 minutes ago, not so old china hand said:

I hope you don't mind my asking but is p40,000 the discount or the full price of the annual tuition?

That is the full price.  I think I paid just over 40 last year, full price.  It will probably go up a bit.  Then the books are around 5k.

[earthdome]

You make a very good case for the visa and I expect that it will be approved... but there is that small chance that the interview is with a USCIS employee who denies the visa just because they are having a bad day or they haven't reached their denial quota for the month. Or there could be a delay while you fulfill some additional paperwork requirement but you should have time between the interview and your flight to handle that situation.

With that said... I agree... go for it.

[Snowy79]

When booking flights ensure you delete all cookies between searches. Some of the software the companies out there use detects you have been looking at flights and increases the price accordingly.

[Happyhorn52]

There are also web sites like Hopper.com, that help you predict the best time to book your flights.

http://www.hopper.com/

How Hopper Does It:

Since Hopper launched, our data-science team has collected a huge historical archive of trillions of flight prices. We analyze that data to share with our users through insightful predictions that consistently perform with 95% accuracy.

Booking with Hopper is quick, easy, and secure. These flights are real. These prices are real. There are no hidden fees. Plus, Hopper is an accredited travel agency, which means there are real humans behind Hopper who can help you with your booking.

[jpbago]

13 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

 Rebooking free?  Reissue $100?  Help!!  How do I read this?  See here:

Rebooking means to change the date only on the same ticket. Reissue means a new ticket with more changes than just the date. To be sure, check with the airline as some word it differently.

As for when to book, usually 3 months in advance will give you the best price. If you book with Flight Network, they give a lowest price guarantee at your option. They will contact you or you can check from their website but you get only one chance to take the lower price. If you do take the lower price, they give you a credit to use on your next flight. It is a gamble on if you should take a price drop of $50 or wait for an even lower price but you may miss this one. The prices are good as they check all airlines.

[OnMyWay]

8 hours ago, Happyhorn52 said:

There are also web sites like Hopper.com, that help you predict the best time to book your flights.

http://www.hopper.com/

How Hopper Does It:

Since Hopper launched, our data-science team has collected a huge historical archive of trillions of flight prices. We analyze that data to share with our users through insightful predictions that consistently perform with 95% accuracy.

Booking with Hopper is quick, easy, and secure. These flights are real. These prices are real. There are no hidden fees. Plus, Hopper is an accredited travel agency, which means there are real humans behind Hopper who can help you with your booking.

I tried this, but it does not work well for the Clark-Los Angeles lane.  It probably works better on high volume lanes.  It shows me that the current low price is p52902 (about $1061) for the dates May 3 & 31 (my test dates).  I went to Asiana and it shows me the $843 fare again.  I think the $1061 fare might be Korean airlines but I can't get the Korean air website to show the fares.

Expedia won't even let you put in Los Angeles as a destination from Clark.

[OnMyWay]

27 minutes ago, jpbago said:

Rebooking means to change the date only on the same ticket. Reissue means a new ticket with more changes than just the date. To be sure, check with the airline as some word it differently.

As for when to book, usually 3 months in advance will give you the best price. If you book with Flight Network, they give a lowest price guarantee at your option. They will contact you or you can check from their website but you get only one chance to take the lower price. If you do take the lower price, they give you a credit to use on your next flight. It is a gamble on if you should take a price drop of $50 or wait for an even lower price but you may miss this one. The prices are good as they check all airlines.

This seems like a good site.  It finds the lowest Asiana fare for the test dates.

But.... there is always something!  

When I put in 1 adult, it says $850 usd.  (exchange rate fluctuation from 843 is fine).  When I put in 3 adults, it say $950 per adult.  When I put in 3 adults, 1 child 3-11 and 1 infant (our actual group), it shows $980 per adult.  I clicked through and the total for the family $3861.  On the Asiana site, the total is $3318.

On FN, if I use just 1 adult, it correctly comes back with:

$ 771.74 air transportation charges + $ 78.89 taxes, fees & charges = $ 850.63 USD total price per Adult

Either they have a software glitch or a "family / group penalty"!

[jpbago]

32 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

Either they have a software glitch or a "family / group penalty"!

The airlines look at how many seats are available constantly and adjust the prices accordingly to get the most money for them. I saw the price was lower with PAL for premium economy than budget economy on a domestic flight from BCD to Cebu. It is marketing, fill the seats as even at a lower price, it is better than an empty seat.