Possible Super Typhoon Mangkhut On The Way!

[OnMyWay]

Watch out Guam!  And then flooding in the Philippines on the weekend.  Looks like out planned weekend trip is a washout.

Hit play on Windy.com and see how big it gets just west of Luzon before it (hopefully) heads north.

https://www.windy.com/?12.211,125.947,5

I got this in one of my FB groups, for our local area:

SEVERE STORM ADVISORY

Please cancel outdoor events on September 14 -Friday to Sept 15, Saturday

SUPER TYPHOON NENENG will be estimated with maximum sustain winds of 240 kph and gustiness of 275 kph by 2PM THURSDAY, September 14, 2018

Maximum sustained winds will likely be at 250kph and gustiness at 285 kph on Saturday and Sunday

Though it will not make landfall it follows a track that will enhance the WORST OF HABAGAT come September 15-16 SAT and SUN (massive flooding)

This will be one of the strongest for 2018. Stay safe .

PAHABOL

- Friday 8AM September 14, 2018 pa natin mararamdaman and bagyo

- No trees or electric posts will be uprooted because it will not make landfall but it will bring horrendous rains on SATURDAY September 15 as it pulls up Habagat when it nears Taiwan

8PM Wednesday September 12, 2018
Enters Philippine Area of Responsibility as a SUPER-TYPHOON 
maximum sustained winds 250km/h –Gust 306km/h

SEA TRAVEL CANCELLATIONS
9PM Thursday September 13, 2018 (SUPER-TYPHOON)
maximum sustained winds 250km/h – Gust 306 km/h

FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS
10PM Friday September 14, 2018 (SUPER-TYPHOON)
maximum sustained winds 250km/h – Gust 306 km/h

[ITGeek]

I've been following the storm closely on the USN Typhoon Warning web site.  It will enter the PAR sometime late Wednesday evening and continue to intensify.  It's current path shows it will make landfall in Northern Luzon/Batanes on Saturday.  Although its max sustained winds will reach 150 kts, it forecast to weaken as it approaches Philippines. I've volunteered with the PDRRMO here in Nueva Ecija and they've already held meeting to discuss their disaster plans for the province.  It appears Illocos Norte, Cagayan and Batanes will take the brunt of the storm.  They are expecting Signal No 1 here in Nueva Ecija, Signal 2/3 in Illocos Norte and Cagayan.

Now is the time to prepare.  Hope everyone stays safe.

[OnMyWay]

Unfortunately the forecast tracks seem to be moving south a bit, but then it turns north before cutting over the top of Luzon.  I sure hope it makes the predicted turn north!

We will be stocking up on everything and hopefully all we get in our area is rain.

[OnMyWay]

They are cancelling school Thursday and Friday all over Luzon.  It makes no sense to me as tomorrow and probably Friday will be fine here.

https://twitter.com/walangpasok?lang=en

[Dave Hounddriver]

1 minute ago, OnMyWay said:

They are cancelling school Thursday and Friday all over Luzon.

They are canceling the boats from Duma to Cebu effective noon tomorrow and it does not even look like we will get any of this storm in this area.  It may get scary in the north and we may get hit by the next one, but they are just doing a "chicken little" imitation by shutting down our local ferries tomorrow.

[Jollygoodfellow]

3 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

It may get scary in the north and we may get hit by the next one, but they are just doing a "chicken little" imitation by shutting down our local ferries tomorrow.

Perhaps they are concerned that it changes direction but I read it has a huge rain band of 900 kilometers area around it. 

[Snowy79]

To be fair to the climate specialists they seam to be able to predict to withing 0.1 degree centigrade how warm the Earth is going to be in 25 years but realise almost every typhoon, hurricane they predict the path of they get wrong.  Probably just covering their butts. 

[RBM]

Was surprised all ferries canceled Negros Cebu it's so calm here with no rain. Guess better sure than sorry but does seem to be a bit early considering its not yet made land fall up north.

[Dave Hounddriver]

7 minutes ago, RBM said:

Guess better sure than sorry

You are correct, but, if there was a typhoon due to hit Dumaguete and it was calm with no rain in Manila I wonder if they would be so quick to shut down the ferries from Manila?

[OnMyWay]

13 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

They are canceling the boats from Duma to Cebu effective noon tomorrow and it does not even look like we will get any of this storm in this area.  It may get scary in the north and we may get hit by the next one, but they are just doing a "chicken little" imitation by shutting down our local ferries tomorrow.

I just got this from RAO and the embassy says there will be impact clear down your way.

United States Embassy Manila, Philippines

Weather Alert - U.S. Embassy Manila, Philippines - September 12, 2018

Location:  Northern Luzon and parts of Central and Southern Luzon

Event:  Typhoon Mangkhut (local name Ompong) has further intensified and is predicted to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday afternoon.  Heavy rains and strong winds are possible over Northern Luzon and parts of Central and Southern Luzon.  Surrounding seas are expected to be rough.  Rains are expected to be heavier than usual over Palawan, Mindoro, and Western Visayas on Friday and Saturday.

Actions to Take: 

• Avoid travel to affected parts of Luzon until the storm has dissipated.
• Monitor local media for updates.
• Review your personal preparedness plan and seek shelter in the event of heavy wind and rains.
• Monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophyisical, Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA),  Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and Tropical Storm Risk websites for updated storm tracking information.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Manila, Philippines

• +63 3012246, or +63 3012567
• +63 3012000 (after hours)
• ACSInfoManila@state.gov
• ph.usembassy.gov   

RAO- In searching all the larger weather sites for our area, we have found that the storm is expected to begin in our area sometime Friday afternoon. Predictions are for moderate rain and wind throughout the evening. Saturday is expected to be the main punch. Heavy rains and winds near 45KPH. That is expected to continue into Sunday morning, then dissipate throughout Sunday, then back to our normal monsoon conditions. Please keep in mind everything you just read could change quickly as this storm is a cat 5 and is very unpredictable.

 

In addition to the precautions and preparedness planning the Embassy mentions in their message, here's a few suggestions. Get some sand bags! If you're in a low lying area you most likely will experience some flooding, sandbags can help lessen the flooding. Ensure you have enough cooking gas if you use that type stove. Store up on canned goods which dont require cooking, store up on water, enough for at least 3 days. Batteries and candles should be in your survival kit also. If you have babies, store up on diapers and infant foods/formula. Don't forget about your pets, they will need food and water also. Wrap important documents and photos in plastic and place in securable plastic bags. If you have the ability to scan documents etc, do so and place on a thumb drive or USB.  If you live in Baretto, near National Highway the flooding may be greater than usual, as the construction of the highway will cause more water to accumulate and the possibility of flooding is greatly enhanced by the filling in of the drainage canals. The RAO hopefully will be dry and open on Monday. If you experience problems with flooding and must vacate your residence, most of the schools in Baretto and Olongapo and surrounding areas are designated evacuation centers. Should you be hospitalized or worse occurs, please have someone contact the Embassy Warden Team at 047-603 0764 (Jack), 0765 (Jeff), 0798 (Norm).