Brexit turmoil

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, sonjack2847 said:

JJ is that a future loss as that seems a large amount.

It does seem the figure is very high but if we assume a 15% loss from pre-Brexit to now and another 15% loss if it's a hard Brexit than that's 30%.  If we take basic pension of 650gbp a month then the figure of 200 a month seems about right.  I suspect many of those living abroad on state pension only will be unable to take the hit and forced to return home.  

However,  this is all scaremongering and propaganda by the anti-Brexiters apparently! 

[JJReyes]

8 hours ago, sonjack2847 said:

12 hours ago, JJReyes said:

I read there are about 4.5 million Britons living outside of the U.K.  About 1.3 million are in countries belonging to the E.U.  No one knows what will happen if it is a hard Brexit.  A great concern, especially among overseas retirees, is the pounding (no pun intended) taken by GBP vs Euro and USD.   The estimated currency equivalent loss among pensioners is GBP 200 to 250 per month.  That sucks if you are on a fixed income.

JJ is that a future loss as that seems a large amount.

The estimate is based on the deterioration of the British Pound after the referendum until the present time.  The retirement amount is per couple living in an EU country namely:  Spain, Portugal and France.  These three countries are popular for British retirees. The average retirement pension per person was above GBP 1,000.  I believe for Americans retiring overseas, an insurance company came up with $1,500 per person.

The main complaint is Britons retiring overseas did not factor the potential of a rapid deterioration for their home currency.  Now it is nearly at parity with the Euro.  

Edited November 19, 2018 by JJReyes

[bastonjock]

I read a news article that the spanish want Gibraltar as part of the deal ,the way this is all going gives me the impression that we will end up with a hard brexit , there will be turmoil in both the UK and the EU ,job losses on both side's of the channel will be in tens of thousands,the uk is a net importer with the EU , their fishing industries will be decemated ,theirs and our car industries will grind to a halt, the availability of finance acrosd the EU will stagnate , its mostly run from London

There will be riots in the streets on.both sides of the channel 

Even if the EU agree our prime ministers deal ,her head will roll 6 months after brexit 

As far as another vote goes ,this is not without precedent,the irish and danish akso voted to leave but were bullied into another vote twice untill the EU got the remain vote,

The whole thing could get very bad and unstable across europe ,this coukd lead to a world wide financial meltdown, i sincerely hope that an agreement is reached ,but i will not accept surrendering our sovereignty to anyone

[JJReyes]

2 hours ago, bastonjock said:

I read a news article that the spanish want Gibraltar as part of the deal ,the way this is all going gives me the impression that we will end up with a hard brexit , there will be turmoil in both the UK and the EU ,job losses on both side's of the channel will be in tens of thousands,the uk is a net importer with the EU , their fishing industries will be decemated ,theirs and our car industries will grind to a halt, the availability of finance acrosd the EU will stagnate , its mostly run from London

Add to this the US trade war against the rest of the industrialized world and you have the recipe for economic disaster.  Several months back, we sold enough stocks so as to have cash for several years.  I will wait until after March 2019 to see what happens next.  In the meantime, Canadian immigration has seen an increased inflow of Americans.  More American retirees are moving to Mexico.  The really wealthy are buying properties in New Zealand.

Interesting that the British Pound originally meant 16 ounces of silver.  Today's silver price is USD 14.40 an ounce.  That means $230.40.

[Jack Peterson]

4 hours ago, bastonjock said:

I read a news article that the spanish want Gibraltar as part of the deal ,

 Spain are the PITA over many things and they are using this as an issue they KNOW they can not have Gibraltar as it is covered by a Treaty that Even the EU can not break, they have been trying for over 250 years to get back what they ceded over 300 years ago for helping them kick the French and Dutch out. As well as Protecting the Country whilst they were away looting and supposedly Fighting in the US. GIBRALTAR was never a member of the EU ( By UK association only) so how can Spain hope to get what was never in the EU to give up 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Jack Peterson
must get a new spell check LOL

[Snowy79]

I'm more optimistic. I think the EU are going about Brexit the wrong way.  They are trying to act like bullies with threats of punishments. They think as politicians they have the power to make decisions but ultimately it's the businesses and backers that have the power.  

If they tried to impose stricter tarrifs the businesses losing money would soon use their wealth to change the politicians minds and the voters won't sit back and take it either. 

I think there will be a few months of toys out of the pram then it will all calm down.

[sonjack2847]

15 hours ago, hk blues said:

It does seem the figure is very high but if we assume a 15% loss from pre-Brexit to now and another 15% loss if it's a hard Brexit than that's 30%.  If we take basic pension of 650gbp a month then the figure of 200 a month seems about right.  I suspect many of those living abroad on state pension only will be unable to take the hit and forced to return home.  

However,  this is all scaremongering and propaganda by the anti-Brexiters apparently! 

But the exchange rate fluctuates all the time. My friend told me that in 2008,or there about he was getting over 90 peso to the pound and I remember about that time I was getting nearly 2usd to the pound.In 2012 I was getting 62-65 peso now I can get 67 so is the fall all down to brexit or is it just following it`s normal route.

[hk blues]

2 hours ago, sonjack2847 said:

But the exchange rate fluctuates all the time. My friend told me that in 2008,or there about he was getting over 90 peso to the pound and I remember about that time I was getting nearly 2usd to the pound.In 2012 I was getting 62-65 peso now I can get 67 so is the fall all down to brexit or is it just following it`s normal route.

The current fall in the value of the GBP is definitely down to the Brexit uncertainty - a drop of 2 pesos last week as soon as the Brexit Secretary resigned and many other ups and downs directly traceable to the negotiations.

That said, currencies go up and down over a period of time for many reasons as you say, so it's always an uncertainty.  The key thing for us expats to do is make sure we have the buffer to accommodate this reality and choose our time to convert.  

If our buffer is as tight as 10-15% then maybe not only the exchange rate is going to keep us awake at night.   

[hk blues]

2 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

I'm more optimistic. I think the EU are going about Brexit the wrong way.  They are trying to act like bullies with threats of punishments. They think as politicians they have the power to make decisions but ultimately it's the businesses and backers that have the power.  

If they tried to impose stricter tarrifs the businesses losing money would soon use their wealth to change the politicians minds and the voters won't sit back and take it either. 

I think there will be a few months of toys out of the pram then it will all calm down.

I think the EU have played a blinder.  They have squeezed as much as they can out of the UK and know we need the deal more than they do. I know the Brexiters amongst us won't agree with that, but it's true IMO.  They have manufactured the NI issue, or at least magnified its importance, to enable them to create a road black that can be removed at will.  It's scarcely believable that an insurance policy against an insurance policy would cause a no deal scenario,

Now that they know our drop-dead position, the time for further negotiation is here and I'm sure a deal which is more acceptable will be ironed out.  Yes, a few more months of uncertainty whilst the posturing continues then another round of negotiations and a deal will be struck.  Anything else is a lose-lose which makes no sense.   

 

[Snowy79]

50 minutes ago, hk blues said:

 They have manufactured the NI issue, or at least magnified its importance, to enable them to create a road black that can be removed at will.  It's scarcely believable that an insurance policy against an insurance policy would cause a no deal scenario,

 

I don't think it's so much that the EU has played a blinder, more so that the UK politicians have used Brexit as a vote winner rather than coming together to make the best of it.

As for the Ireland scenario it's definitely a red herring and no real issue.  All the rubbish about the Good Friday agreement and how it's kept N Ireland at peace is just another lie.  The British military had the terrorist organisations beaten pure and simple, we knew their every moves and had key players fully embedded in them.  Blair knew it but used it for political gain.