The South China Sea and Chinese force projection capability and willingness.

[GeoffH]

Some background is probably warranted first.

The USA have been doing transits of the strait between mainland China and Taiwan for some time, the Brits have recently done it as well.  Australia haven't yet passed through the strait although there is some pressure for them to do so. 

Australia did send task force Indo-Pacific Endevour 2019 which consisted of HMA Ships Canberra (LHD), Success (replenishment oiler), Newcastle (FFG) and Parramatta (FFH), as well as embarked MH-60R maritime combat helicopters, MRH-90 maritime support helicopters and Tiger armed reconnaissance helicopters.  A Royal Australian Air Force P8-A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft also participated in several regional visits.  IPE 19 visited Sri Lanka, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.

And recently the 30th anniversary of Tianamen Square passed and the Australian government have made their feelings in the past known about that quite well known (which China didn't appreciate).

And finally getting to the point... just after IPE19 returned home from transiting the South China sea where it was challenged by Chinese vessels and where Australian pilots were targetted by lasers from Chinese fishing boats (which has also happened I understand to US aviators in the past) a Chinese task force arrives without notice (or at least without notice to the public and normally these visits are well publicized).  Also in the past any Chinese naval vessel arriving was a solo frigate or destroyer, this is a task force.  And it's a task force consisting of an Amphibious assault ship, a destroyer and a supply ship... rather too similar to the recent Australian task force.

China making a point possibly?  I'd welcome comments.  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-03/chinese-warships-enter-sydney-harbour-south-china-sea-claims/11172578

What do people think? 

Should Australia join the US and the Brits in doing Taiwan straight transits?

Could increased tensions in the area will effect expats from the USA, Britain and Australia in the Philippines if China starts flexing their muscle further?

 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by GeoffH

[Snowy79]

Personally I think all these shows of power is just willy waving and an excuse to prop up the arms industry. 

No super power will go to war against another in this day and age. We now live in a global economy where billions of dollars of Chinese, Russian, Arab and Korean money is invested in the so called enemy countries.  Why go to war when you have a financial strangle hold? 

[Mike J]

26 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

No super power will go to war against another in this day and age. We now live in a global economy where billions of dollars of Chinese, Russian, Arab and Korean money is invested in the so called enemy countries.  Why go to war when you have a financial strangle hold? 

Agree.  The bigger danger is from the smaller, more radical, countries that want to be seen as more powerful than they really are.

[Mark Berkowitz]

3 hours ago, GeoffH said:

Should Australia join the US and the Brits in doing Taiwan straight transits?

It's really not up to me, but if it was, I would say that Australia should join the US and the Brits in doing Taiwan straight transits.  In unity, there is more strength, and I think that China would take more advantage of the situation if there's no unity beteen these three nations.  The political correctness of not getting involved will possibly be perceived by China as a weakness that be exploited in many more ways than not getting involved. JMHO. 

[GeoffH]

31 minutes ago, Mark Berkowitz said:

It's really not up to me, but if it was, I would say that Australia should join the US and the Brits in doing Taiwan straight transits.  In unity, there is more strength, and I think that China would take more advantage of the situation if there's no unity beteen these three nations.  

I didn't want to bias the discussion in the thread but that is the way I'm thinking also. For what it's worth I do think it's possible that Australia is more likely to send ships to the South China Sea area again given the outcome of the recent election and I forgot to mention earlier that France just finished a Taiwan strait transit as well.

My gut feeling (and that's all it is) is that the conveniently timed arrival of the Chinese task force at Sydney was an attempt to cause concern in some circles in Australia and stop Australia from following suit at some point.

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by GeoffH

[Arizona Kid]

In the Star today they showed pictures of Vietnamese fishermen arrested for fishing in Philippine waters. When are they going to arrest the Chinese fishermen who have taken over much of the Philippine territory fishing grounds..never. Can anyone guess why?  

[GeoffH]

The issue of illegal fishing boats is something that Australia are attempting to assist pacific nations to deal with.  The Pacific Patrol boat program will see 21 (originally 19) new steel hull patrol boats donated by Australia to 12 Pacific nations.  The first one was recently commissioned by Papua New Guinea and the last will be delivered in 2023.  

http://news.navy.gov.au/en/Feb2019/Events/5060/Pacific-security-bolstered-as-first-Guardian-class-Patrol-Boat-commissioned.htm

It is of course an attempt to bolster Australian influence in the region and it is being followed by increasing infrastructure projects in the region as well.  

It is notable that it does not extend northwards as far as the South China Sea but there has been strong push back from Australia to a proposed Chinese base and other facilities in Vanuatu.  And Australian bases in the area are seeing increased funding and a joint US/Australia base development is happening in Papua New Guinea (the first delivery of the new patrol boats).

 

 

Edited June 5, 2019 by GeoffH