Marvin Boggs Posted February 27, 2020 Author Posted February 27, 2020 Well, we are at the end of February. Despite the media freak out regarding the spread of the virus, I found some new perspective on this whole thing with just a little bit of searching. Take a gander at this article from 2018, which I corroborated by going to the CDC website. 80,000 deaths in the US from influenza and flu-related problems during the 2017/2018 flu season. Just in the US. To use another data point, 2.4 million Americans die each year from various causes. Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind. I just do not see it as being as deadly as people are making it out to be. Spreading fast, maybe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hounddriver Posted February 27, 2020 Posted February 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind Strange, in another thread on global warming people were saying that so many experts agreeing means there could not possible be a mistake. Do you think they could be . . um . .. wrong? In truth, I agree the "could" be wrong. But I prefer to take all the precautions I can. For example, Philippines did not want us transiting via South Korea due to the virus there. And yet the only one coughing up a storm so far has been the Filipino at the ticket desk who checked us in. Nah, couldn't be. The experts say it is in South Korea, not here in Mactan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted February 27, 2020 Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind. That is the same logic that the consipiracy theorists use for the Y2K problem, I worked on Y2K... we did so much we fixed 99.9% of the problems that would have occured. Now, because there were very few problems people say it wasn't real and they are WRONG. I honestly think the same sort of thing is happening with Covid-19, because China reacted in a way that only an autocratic country can and shut down basically an entire province the virus didn't spread like it could have. If they had ignored it then in a few years it could be as common as polio was in the 40s and 50s (not as deadly though). Edited February 27, 2020 by GeoffH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Mike J Posted February 27, 2020 Forum Support Posted February 27, 2020 9 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: Well, we are at the end of February. Despite the media freak out regarding the spread of the virus, I found some new perspective on this whole thing with just a little bit of searching. Take a gander at this article from 2018, which I corroborated by going to the CDC website. 80,000 deaths in the US from influenza and flu-related problems during the 2017/2018 flu season. Just in the US. To use another data point, 2.4 million Americans die each year from various causes. Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind. I just do not see it as being as deadly as people are making it out to be. Spreading fast, maybe so. Marvin - You are only giving the number of deaths, not the total number of cases, and most importantly the MORTALITY RATE. Here is a more complete set of numbers, also from the CDC. 48.8 million sick, with 79,000 deaths. That equates to a death rate of .0016 (ie 1.6 deaths per thousand cases of flu). The estimate for the current strain is estimated at 2 to 3% (ie 20 to 30 deaths per thousand). So if 50 million in the USA get this flu you could potentially have 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 people die of flu and/or flu related illness. Yes, people die of the flu every year but this flu at a rate at least 10 times greater as what we are used to. https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/ he 2018-2019 flu season may not have been as severe as the one that came before it, but it set a record of its own, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say. It was the longest in a decade, lasting 21 weeks. Fewer illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths were reported this year than during last year’s notoriously brutal flu season, earning the 2018-2019 season an overall severity rating of “moderate,” according to a new CDC recap. But the length and trajectory of the most recent flu season—which began in November, peaked in mid-February and trailed off in April—was unique, the CDC says. Most flu seasons start off with lots of infections from influenza A viruses, which can be more severe and less responsive to vaccination than other subtypes, while generally less-severe influenza B viruses often strike later. But this year, the CDC says, two different phases of influenza A activity dominated the season, contributing to its unusual length. H1N1 circulated widely from October to mid-February, then H3N2 picked up from mid-February into the spring, according to the new report. Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths. Pediatric hospitalizations were similar to last year’s levels, the CDC says, but there were fewer pediatric deaths: 116 children died from the flu this year, compared to 183 last year. Although the 2018-2019 flu season is over, the CDC is already reminding people to get vaccinated ahead of the 2019-2020 season, since it’s the best way to reduce the risk of getting and transmitting influenza. October, ahead of the bulk of flu season, is the best time to get vaccinated, according to the CDC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Boggs Posted February 29, 2020 Author Posted February 29, 2020 So Mike says, if the math holds true, we may see 1.5 million deaths in the US from this thing. Geoff says, hopefully enough panic early on is giving us a head start fighting it, keeping the numbers far lower than they might have been. I believe it was me who first raised the alarm about corona on this forum, and also to warn everyone about the global supply chain situation regarding Chinese goods. Definitely being prepared and taking precautions is the best thing you can do. What I'm saying now is -- when its all said and done and the numbers are tallied, will this look any different than a normal flu season? My prediction is it won't. Time will tell. Personally I have decided not to panic about it. We stocked up on N99 mask filters, cleaning disinfectants, and consumables supplies that are made in China. If this really becomes the zombie-apocalypse, then none of that will matter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hounddriver Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: when its all said and done and the numbers are tallied, will this look any different than a normal flu season? What scares me most is: What were they doing in Wuhan just before the Corona Virus suddenly apperared. This article has me curious: Quote Bio parts safety When using cell lines, including the human cell lines we used in our experiments, GES-1, MGC-803, and SGC-7901, the risk group of these cell lines comes from NH1, the risk class is RG1, is harmless to humans, and is environmentally harmless, too. In order to remain these cell lines sterile, our experiments are carried out in a separated and closed room in the laboratory, and all mammalian cell experiments are conducted in biosafety cabinets and experimental operators are worn in laboratory coats and shoe covers that are different from those we use when dealing with common bacteria. In our experiment stoic-test miRNA sensors, we co-transfected RNA over-expression plasmids with miRNA targets to mammalian cells, which are safe for people and do not involve ethical risks. And our personal protective equipment is sufficient to protect us from other harms, as well as our transfection systems are neither contagious nor self-replicating, reducing the safety risks of using these materials. https://2019.igem.org/Team:XHD-WS-Wuhan-A/experiment/safety/ I admit its all greek to me, but I do suspect a link between messing about with NH1 cells and a new virus appearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy F. Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 A couple things that convinced me that the situation is very serious- The Saudi government has prohibited visitors during Hajj season. The PRC (China) government has canceled the biggest political meeting of the year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 7, 2020 Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) The Philippines government announce a State of Emergeny because of detected community transmission of the virus in the Philippines. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-coronavirus-philippines-duterte-state-emergency-12512658 Edited March 7, 2020 by GeoffH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Mike J Posted March 7, 2020 Forum Support Posted March 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, GeoffH said: The Philippines government have declared a State of Emergeny because of detected community transmission of the virus in the Philippines. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-coronavirus-philippines-duterte-state-emergency-12512658 Interesting that the article and also the original source article (embedded URL) did not state where the locality of the cases. Trying to prevent panic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Tommy T. Posted March 7, 2020 Forum Support Posted March 7, 2020 46 minutes ago, Mike J said: Interesting that the article and also the original source article (embedded URL) did not state where the locality of the cases. Trying to prevent panic? Latest report I just read says one of the recent cases is in San Juan City and another is in Bonafacio, Taguig City. I am preparing to hunker down...Like all those over 60 or with pre-existing conditions are advised to do in USA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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