Marvin Boggs Posted March 9, 2020 Author Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Dave Hounddriver said: Here is a very interesting, scientific study of the Corona Virus. It contains all the usual scientific gobbledygook that most of us do not understand but it contains one piece of VERY good news for the Philippines, Here is the link to the report and if you scroll down to page 16 of 19 you will see this: This means, to me, that a large part of the Philippines will escape the worst of the Covid 19 virus. There will be some transmission because some days are not that hot and because many people congregate in air conditioned malls etc. But it seems the heat stops it so when you go out with friends . . go out on hot, humid days. This also explains why the virus spreads in places like Singapore. Rich country with lots of air conditioned gathering places. I believe I mentioned this possibility before but its nice to be able to say . . . I was right. Meanwhile, consider the case of Hong Kong. A densely populated island (kinda) full of chinese people ought to be the perfect viral stomping ground for this virus, one would think. But they have 114 cases, and only 3 deaths. Yes, 3. They had their first cases weeks before the West, so where is the mass epidemic and casualty count in Hong Kong? "Give it time," we keep hearing, "it has a month long incubation." Signs are pointing to this virus being either a lot less deadly or a lot less infectious than we are hearing about. Also consider the Diamond Princess. The story being reported is that they botched their containment from top to bottom, were ill-equipped and ill-trained for this kind of viral outbreak. 3700 people on a ship should be a perfect petri dish experiment for just how deadly this thing can be. As of yesterday, less than 19% had become infected. Of those 696, there are 7 deaths, so a roughly 1% mortality rate of those infected. I will continue to beat the drum of common sense. Stay prepared so you don't run out of toilet paper, but I still think you are much more likely to die of the flu. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: I will continue to beat the drum of common sense. Stay prepared so you don't run out of toilet paper, but I still think you are much more likely to die of the flu. Like you, i am keeping things in perspective regarding what is undoubtedly a very serious global health risk. Yes, one person could infect thousand over a period of time as mentioned by a poster here, but it isn't happening like that - at least not so far. i agree that you are more likely to die from flu but I suppose that at-risk group now have 2 possible sources of death so I can understand their concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy79 Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 An 86yr old American has been tested positive in Ortegas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowy79 said: An 86yr old American has been tested positive in Ortegas. Over 80s don't have a good record against this virus, hope he pulls through :( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy79 Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 1 minute ago, GeoffH said: Over 80s don't have a good record against this virus, hope he pulls through :( It could be a test of the Philippines medical system if he has money behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, GeoffH said: Over 80s don't have a good record against this virus, hope he pulls through :( More so if he has any underlying health conditions - and what 86 year old doesn't? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Snowy79 said: It could be a test of the Philippines medical system if he has money behind him. Maybe... but Australia's 'medical system' failed to save several elderly people who were infected in their nursing homes, there is really only so much they can do once the virus gets a hold in the lower respiratory system. And if a 1st world health system is resorting to isolating aged care facilities and asking people not to visit then they're concerned about the extra risk that the elderly face from the virus. Edited March 9, 2020 by GeoffH 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy79 Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, GeoffH said: Maybe... but Australia's 'medical system' failed to save several elderly people who were infected in their nursing homes, there is really only so much they can do once the virus gets a hold in the lower respiratory system. And if a 1st world health system is resorting to isolating aged care facilities and asking people not to visit then they're concerned about the extra risk that the elderly face from the virus. I understand that one of the methods that has been shown to be successful is a machine that oxygenates the blood outside of the body. A bit like a dialysis machine. Apparently it allows the lungs time to heal. The only problem is the machines are quite rare even in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snowy79 said: I understand that one of the methods that has been shown to be successful is a machine that oxygenates the blood outside of the body. A bit like a dialysis machine. Apparently it allows the lungs time to heal. The only problem is the machines are quite rare even in the West. That sounds similar to how a heart-lung transplant machine works, I can see no reason why that wouldn't work but yes they wouldn't be at all common. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hounddriver Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: I will continue to beat the drum of common sense. Stay prepared so you don't run out of toilet paper, but I still think you are much more likely to die of the flu. . . . Unless you live in Washington state where the death rate for Covid 19 is 13% at this moment (18 deaths of 136 cases and getting worse) https://www.theolympian.com/news/local/article241014096.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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