Forum Support Tommy T. Posted March 10, 2020 Forum Support Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, hk blues said: Likely infected...deadly...highly contagious - rather alarmist vocabulary Tom. Could be. What I meant was that, if I knew that there was an outbreak of that virus here in Davao and that it was concentrated in a particular area, I would avoid that area. The biggest problem I see with this virus is that nobody ever knows where it is or who is contagious until after people start getting sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tommy T. said: Perhaps... The chance of getting struck by lightning (in USA) in any given year is 1 in 700,000. The chance of getting struck by lightning in one's lifetime is approximately 1 in 3,000. I could not find statistics about people killed by donkey kicks... Nobody knows the chance of catching the Wuhan Flu. But, once caught, the chance of dying for someone over 60 is, what, 7% or so? I am sorry, I have not reviewed the statistic that Mike J or someone posted last week. So I do not carry a steel frame umbrella out in a thunderstorm. I stay away from the asses of asses as much as possible - easy so long as I don't go to a farm. And I will minimize venturing to malls on crowded sale days (like last weekend), wear a mask when in places with crowds, avoid crowded restaurants and I don't go to bars anyway, like Snowy, either. You have been sourcing the stats from the same websites as me Tom! If you are going to give a balanced opinion, you can't really cherrypick which stats to rely on i.e. a 7% chance of dying from something you don't know how likely it is to catch if you are over 60 isn't really indicative of much. I absolutely agree that reasonable precautions should be taken - perhaps your and my definition of reasonable are a little different though, but I respect your caution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tommy T. said: Could be. What I meant was that, if I knew that there was an outbreak of that virus here in Davao and that it was concentrated in a particular area, I would avoid that area. The biggest problem I see with this virus is that nobody ever knows where it is or who is contagious until after people start getting sick. I get it now - your original post seemed to suggest a more general situation rather a rather specific one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Tommy T. Posted March 10, 2020 Forum Support Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, hk blues said: You have been sourcing the stats from the same websites as me Tom! If you are going to give a balanced opinion, you can't really cherrypick which stats to rely on i.e. a 7% chance of dying from something you don't know how likely it is to catch if you are over 60 isn't really indicative of much. I absolutely agree that reasonable precautions should be taken - perhaps your and my definition of reasonable are a little different though, but I respect your caution. And to cloud the reasonableness of my arguments, remember that you are posting with a guy who set sail across the largest ocean on earth in a tiny little sailboat. Talk about not making sense! But it seemed like a good idea at the time (pre 40 years old)... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: But as long as we are spitballing, maybe the school-age demographic was under-represented as well. I've never been on a cruise ship. Children do seem to be under represented in cases and from what little is known also seem to be experiencing, on average, milder symptoms. As to children being under represented that would depend upon the cruise line and/or the cruise. Some cruises are aimed at families and have lots of children, some aren't specifically targeted and others are aimed at older passengers and since we don't know the age breakdown for the particular cruise ship under discussion it's hard to say one way or the other (unlike with the very elderly and frail which would be under represented). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Boggs Posted March 10, 2020 Author Posted March 10, 2020 37 minutes ago, GeoffH said: Children do seem to be under represented in cases and from what little is known also seem to be experiencing, on average, milder symptoms. As to children being under represented that would depend upon the cruise line and/or the cruise. Some cruises are aimed at families and have lots of children, some aren't specifically targeted and others are aimed at older passengers and since we don't know the age breakdown for the particular cruise ship under discussion it's hard to say one way or the other (unlike with the very elderly and frail which would be under represented). Glean from this what you will. I could not find a newer one yet, but this shows the demographics of the passengers and crew. It looks like there were 2,165 people on that ship who were 60+. 1,242 were 70+. So this is a ship with over half its population in the high risk category, yet only 7 deaths. Think about the close confines of a ship, and the virus spreading around for weeks before anyone knew it. How high should these numbers be if the scary statistics we are reading about were true? In a limitless expanse of population, like a continent, someone could always say "well the REAL number of infected we can't say for sure, a lot of people are sick who think they just have the flu." Well OK, but this ship a captive population that is pretty well studied. Worry if you guys want to, I just don't see it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBM Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 This guys is worth looking at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Boggs Posted March 10, 2020 Author Posted March 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, RBM said: This guys is worth looking at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk What's a vittamin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobbit112 Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, RBM said: This guys is worth looking at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk Chest infection can be caused by viral or bacterial infection. What percentage caused by viral???? Vitamin D is produced by being in the sun. I seem to remember 15 minutes in the sun per day satisfied your Vitamin D requirement for a day. You have to be careful with fat soluble vitamins, you can overdose with them if you are not careful as they are stored in fat and not readily excreted. Edited March 10, 2020 by Hobbit112 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manofthecoldland Posted March 10, 2020 Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, RBM said: This guys is worth looking at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk I watched this 3 days ago and was still considering doing a post re vitamin D deficiencies, but now you saved me the trouble. Thanks. Dr. John Campbell, "Vitamin D and Immunity". Check you last few blood plate readouts, and if you're deficient, do what the Hobbit man does..... doesn't cost anything here in the tropics. If you don't like sunning briefly to let your body produce its own, the tabs or capsules are the alternative. I don't know what they cost here, but I bring a 400 soft gels bottle of 2,000 I.U /50 MCG with me and take one daily, since I decided to do something about my long term deficiencies ten months ago. The reason at the time was, as a Northern latitude resident (most are deficient), a local PBS program doctor mentioned the fact. I took 1,000 I.U. dry pills for awhile and then shifted to the higher amount since I was seeing noticeable improvement in my skin . Think I only paid US $8-12 for the store brand generic. That's a 1 year + supply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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