Corona Virus

[graham59]

[OnMyWay]

On 3/20/2020 at 9:49 AM, Dave Hounddriver said:

I doubt that very much.  The death rate for resolved cases is growing every day.  Last time I posted it was about 8%.  The source is reputable.  Lots more testing going on in the last couple of weeks but still . . .

So 10% worldwide deaths for all closed cases.  I see the reasons to stay optimistic and make excuses for this growing number but I support the world governments who are taking it seriously and shutting things down until this percentage starts going the other way.

Self isolate, stay calm, enjoy your own company and don't worry about whether 1% or 10% is the final number.

Dave, I know it really doesn't matter, but you keep quoting high death rates.  The 10% death rate for closed cases does not include the unreported cases.   The estimates are that 85% go unreported and either never have symptoms or have mild symptoms that just pass.  I'm not dismissing the other part and agree everyone should just stay home.

Using 80% instead of 85%, the death rate would be 2% in this scenario.  I'm not considering the "resolved" factor here.

		Cases	Deaths	Death Rate
Total Known and Reported Cases	20.00%	20000	2000	10.00%
Total Unknown and Unreported Mild Cases	80.00%	80000	0	0.00%
Total Cases		100000	2000	2.00%

[Heeb]

[Dave Hounddriver]

2 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

Dave, I know it really doesn't matter, but you keep quoting high death rates.  The 10% death rate for closed cases does not include the unreported case

I know you have your opinion, but its 11% now and still rising.  I just tend to think that is more of a big deal than you do.  For every 9 person that fully recovers from this disease there is 1 who dies.  Tunnel vision I guess but that is what I see.

 

EDIT:  The death rate for this kind of thing cannot and does not include non-reported cases.  In this kind of scenario, 

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

CFR is the Case Fatality Rate and T = 2 weeks, which is the average time from confirmation to death for this virus.

Let x = March 20 so day x-T is March 6  WHO said the world had 100,000 cases on March 6.  On March 20 there have been 11,000 worldwide deaths.

CFR = 11,000/100000 = 11%

So the death rate of all known cases so far is currently running at 11%

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Dave Hounddriver

[Tommy T.]

How cool is this???

I just received my electric bill from Davao Light a while ago.

I sent a message to the landlord asking  if I paid the amount, would his kid (worker) pay my bill when he went to pay his?

He said, okay, no problem, staying inside is the safest thing to do...

Then I asked him if I gave him the money in advance (which I already did) if he would also buy me a bottle or two of Tanduay! He just messaged me back - "Which Tanduay would you like?"  The best landlord I have ever had!!!

[Marvin Boggs]

55 minutes ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

 

So the death rate of all known cases so far is currently running at 11%

 

How is that statistic useful at all?  Right now most people with symptoms are probably scared to death to go near a hospital.  The CDC and WHO have admitted that vastly more people have the virus than have been diagnosed.  "Some people we know about got sick, and 10% of them died", that is all in the world that statistic means.  Go back to the 'control' case if you want to understand infection rate and the deadliness of the disease.  I'm referring to the Diamond Princess, even though some of you are sick of hearing me say it.   

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

I know you have your opinion, but its 11% now and still rising.  I just tend to think that is more of a big deal than you do.  For every 9 person that fully recovers from this disease there is 1 who dies.  Tunnel vision I guess but that is what I see.

 

EDIT:  The death rate for this kind of thing cannot and does not include non-reported cases.  In this kind of scenario, 

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

CFR is the Case Fatality Rate and T = 2 weeks, which is the average time from confirmation to death for this virus.

Let x = March 20 so day x-T is March 6  WHO said the world had 100,000 cases on March 6.  On March 20 there have been 11,000 worldwide deaths.

CFR = 11,000/100000 = 11%

So the death rate of all known cases so far is currently running at 11%

 

For me, the value in the stats is purely from a trend perspective - and as long as thet keep the denominators constant it doesn't really matter if they're the wrong ones.

But, in terms of trying to give an indication of how dangerous, or deadly, the current stats don't really help and certainly paint a bleaker picture than the reality.

[Tommy T.]

36 minutes ago, Marvin Boggs said:

I'm referring to the Diamond Princess, even though some of you are sick of hearing me say it. 

Not at all tired of hearing about that, Marvin...

[roddavis]

The other day had to do some grocery shopping. I was told I would need gloves and a mask to get into the mall. They lied....they were wearing clothes! Go figure.....

[Arizona Kid]

5 hours ago, Heeb said:

Nice to keep a sense of humor in all of this. Good one.