Corona Virus

[Arizona Kid]

The lock down or whatever you want to call it won't be so bad as long as we still have electricity and internet service. I hate sleeping at night without an electric fan.

[stevewool]

The media keeps us all informed but they can go to far too, many of us understand it is a terrible situation we are all facing and most will be doing the best even changing there day to day living without the government telling us we have to change but you will also get the odd few who will try to profit from the problem too and the others who will not change as it’s there right .

I am now going to watch the news just the once in the morning and then in the evening and try to carry on , plus come on here to listen to what others have been up to, again stay safe everyone.

[OnMyWay]

6 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

I know you have your opinion, but its 11% now and still rising.  I just tend to think that is more of a big deal than you do.  For every 9 person that fully recovers from this disease there is 1 who dies.  Tunnel vision I guess but that is what I see.

 

EDIT:  The death rate for this kind of thing cannot and does not include non-reported cases.  In this kind of scenario, 

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

CFR is the Case Fatality Rate and T = 2 weeks, which is the average time from confirmation to death for this virus.

Let x = March 20 so day x-T is March 6  WHO said the world had 100,000 cases on March 6.  On March 20 there have been 11,000 worldwide deaths.

CFR = 11,000/100000 = 11%

So the death rate of all known cases so far is currently running at 11%

 

If you use the term case fatality rate, CFR, then you are correct.  Calling that the death rate from the virus is incorrect.

[Marvin Boggs]

We finally had our first local case, who was from elsewhere on Panay but is now at one of the Iloilo hospitals.  So today the place is like a ghost town.  The one hardware store I found open yesterday was closed when I went by it this morning.  Fire trucks are roaming around making loudspeaker announcements.  Passed a local barangay checkpoint but just kind of waved as we cruised by.  Market activity still seems pretty normal, and I do still see quite a few tricycles around.  Someone was saying the tricycles were being restricted, but I haven't seen it.  They did stop the jeepneys, and replaced them with buses I'm told but you have to sit with a space between you and the next passenger. 

 

[hk blues]

19 hours ago, Arizona Kid said:

The lock down or whatever you want to call it won't be so bad as long as we still have electricity and internet service. I hate sleeping at night without an electric fan.

Yep.

The problem will be when problems arise and repairs are needed - I'd imagine manpower will be down so things will take longer to repair.  And, the telecom companies may start imposing restrictions on their technicians going into properties.

As an aside - we had to get a quarantine permit today to allow 1 of us at a time to exit the community - fair enough.  However, they came around on a motorcycle with a loudspeaker and advised us all to go to the clubhouse immediately to process the document - so much for avoiding large groups of people congregating together!  

[OnMyWay]

This evening at just before 7 pm I went out for the first time since last Tuesday.  I was hoping to get some Jollibee for the family but they had already closed.  Somebody in the neighborhood put together an open / closed lists of markets and restos, and most that are open are closing very early.  No dine-in allowed.  Pickup and delivery only.

It was eerie driving down the main road in the Freeport.  Street lights were on but business lights were off, so it seemed very dark.  Very few vehicles on the road.  There is a curfew effective today, 8 pm to 5 am.  In the next few days we are supposed to get a quarantine pass for the house;  one person allowed out for necessities only.

[Snowy79]

I went for a good 12.5km walk around Boracay today and was surprised how quiet it was.  Hardly saw anyone until I reached Bulabog where they do the kitesurfing. Most of the bars and restaurants are closed as is 99% of Dmall.  Just discovered it was due to a local enhanced quarantine.  As of tomorrow there's also an alcohol ban and only take out and delivery.  Permits required to leave your house and over 60s and students 24/7 lockdown.

[bastonjock]

On 3/21/2020 at 2:19 AM, OnMyWay said:

Dave, I know it really doesn't matter, but you keep quoting high death rates.  The 10% death rate for closed cases does not include the unreported cases.   The estimates are that 85% go unreported and either never have symptoms or have mild symptoms that just pass.  I'm not dismissing the other part and agree everyone should just stay home.

Using 80% instead of 85%, the death rate would be 2% in this scenario.  I'm not considering the "resolved" factor here.

		Cases	Deaths	Death Rate
Total Known and Reported Cases	20.00%	20000	2000	10.00%
Total Unknown and Unreported Mild Cases	80.00%	80000	0	0.00%
Total Cases		100000	2000	2.ork out at00%

The 2 percent death rate is the same as the Spanish flu, that would work out at 870,000 deathd in the UK 

I hope all you statisticians are wrong ,nothing personal 

[bastonjock]

On 3/21/2020 at 10:04 AM, stevewool said:

The media keeps us all informed but they can go to far too,

Steve ,check out a bbc4 program called pandemic ,its a documentary put together by Cambridge scientists 

[Mike J]

Dear Abby - "My wife and I have a king size bed, are we okay for "social distance"?