Knock on effect of the virus

[Tommy T.]

I guess maybe it does not matter what the fatality percentage rate is if you catch it and it kills you?

[Mike J]

3 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

I think the biggest threat isn't the death ratio but the numbers who will catch it if it gets out of hand.  As you can be contagious with no symptoms unlike the cold etc it could spread to everyone.  Your average healthy person appears to recover but those with underlying illnesses or weak immune systems are the ones dying.  Add to this is could smother the already poor health system here and make it harder for other illnesses to be treated.   

I found this article from a Chinese team of doctors that followed 99 patients from a hospital in Wuhan.   They studied/tracked all confirmed (99) cases of a single hospital from 1 Jan to 20 Jan.  There was an 11% death rate.   The article is quite lengthy.  I have posted the url link, the summary only.  For those interested in the "methods" used you can click to view the entire article.  An 11% death rate is scary as hell, especially for us older folks.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

Summary
Background
In December, 2019, a pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China. We aimed to further clarify the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia.
Methods
In this retrospective, single-centre study, we included all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020. Cases were confirmed by real-time RT-PCR and were analysed for epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and radiological features and laboratory data. Outcomes were followed up until Jan 25, 2020.
Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.
Interpretation
The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.
Funding
National Key R&D Program of China.

[Mike J]

19 minutes ago, Gary D said:

That's assuming everyone in the world catches it. I don't know what a realistic sample would be, the Spanish flu was about 30%.

I think Geoff is saying that if only 1% of the world's population catch the flu it would still be 77 million people.  Let's hope that the number is WAY less than that 30% of the Spanish flu.  We are so globally connected now it would probably be a blessing to see 1%.

[Snowy79]

1 hour ago, Guy F. said:

It's THE SAME as with cold or flu. You will be contagious before you have symptoms.

You are quite correct I should have been more specific.  The flu and colds are contagious 24hrs before showing symptoms.  This virus you can be contagious up to 2 weeks before showing symptoms.  Again it's early days and more is being found out every day.  I just find it strange that China would rush to build a hospital and ruin their economy over a minor virus.  

[Gary D]

2 minutes ago, Mike J said:

I think Geoff is saying that if only 1% of the world's population catch the flu it would still be 77 million people.  Let's hope that the number is WAY less than that 30% of the Spanish flu.  We are so globally connected now it would probably be a blessing to see 1%.

77 million is 1% of the world population. Spanish flu 500 million caught of a population of approx 1.6 billions. Take the world population today 2.5 billion wouldvhave caught of which 25-50 would die. Still a hell of a lot though.

[bastonjock]

If @Mike J report is correct and this virus kills 11% of the people that it infects then the numbers will be much worse than the Spanish flu , I hope the egg heads at Cambridge come up with a vaccine fast

 

[hk blues]

45 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

I guess maybe it does not matter what the fatality percentage rate is if you catch it and it kills you?

But, surely the point is the higher the fatality rate,the more likely you are to die if you catch it?  

[Tommy T.]

17 minutes ago, hk blues said:

But, surely the point is the higher the fatality rate,the more likely you are to die if you catch it?  

Of course... no disputing that. I am curious about the infection rate that Marvin mentioned before, and how is it transmitted exactly? Obviously it is super contagious and very nasty. Sadly, it's like everyone is locking the barn doors while the horses are gone long ago. As Mike said - it is very scary.

[bastonjock]

If you work out the rough numbers based on a Spanish flu infection rate 

Then just over 2.6 billion will become infected 

If 11 % perish then that's roughly estimated at 265million people 

Please check the math

[Snowy79]

31 minutes ago, bastonjock said:

If you work out the rough numbers based on a Spanish flu infection rate 

Then just over 2.6 billion will become infected 

If 11 % perish then that's roughly estimated at 265million people 

Please check the math

Checked.  286 million.