A hard choice

[GeoffH]

8 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

 Some of you may be more concerned about this one because of all the news it is making, but you'd be in just as much danger from Flu. 

No... I'm more concerned about this one because there is a flu vaccine which I take each year which means I am unlikely to catch the flu and if I do I will almost certainly get a milder infection.  And because the statistical death rate for someone of my age with my comorbidities is estimated to be 10 times less than that of COVID-19.

It's a bit like riding a motorbike, I'm happy to do that but I wear a helmet and gloves and I take precautions to avoid high traffic areas and high speeds.

It's about managing things towards an acceptible level of risk IMO.

 

[scott h]

28 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

It's about managing things towards an acceptible level of risk IMO.

Well said 

[Marvin Boggs]

4 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

You previously mentioned that the "death rate" for all cases of this virus was only about 4 %.  Today it is at 5 % and still rising.  As you know, I think that number is misleading and low because only 81% of the "Closed Cases" have revovered.

 

I only quoted the WHO numbers in that comment Dave, because I figured you wouldn't believe anything else, and that was last week.  We've beat these numbers to death and I still think your math is misleading.  The fact is way more people have the virus than they know about, making every number being reported skewed to the high end.

Just in the last few days we are hearing Vitamin C is the standard treatment being used in Malaysia and China.  If a 'flu shot' is what you guys are placing your hopes in, then be my guest. 

[Tommy T.]

10 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

 Some of you may be more concerned about this one because of all the news it is making, but you'd be in just as much danger from Flu. 

Sorry to disagree with you Marvin, but I do.

To me, the main differences are, like what Geoff and others have said, we can - and do - get flu shots to help. Because flu is known.

This scourge is mostly unknown so far - no vaccines, no cures. And it appears to be more lethal to older people. Plus, it is insidious as it is spread often by people who are asymptomatic. Another point is that people who do become symptomatic may not do so for many days, yet they can be spreading the disease. By the time governments and people realize it is spreading in their area, it is already way too late...

I think, that for those reasons, this is something to fear much more than flu...

[Marvin Boggs]

I get it Tom, fear of the unknown.  But when was the last time you were just randomly stricken with a virus and had to go to a hospital?  My point is normally we go about our daily business being exposed to all kinds of things we don't know.  Yes, those tend to have cures.  But also, this one seems to have ample number of cures / treatments.  I side with those who advocate that we do not grind the world to a halt, but rather take steps to isolate those most at risk.  To me, thats the better way of managing risk...does not crashing the global economy carry its own risks?  Risk management has multiple levels. 

 

[Tommy T.]

51 minutes ago, Marvin Boggs said:

 But also, this one seems to have ample number of cures / treatments.

Really? All I have read about have not really been proven - hopeful as some may seem.

From what I have read, I will, respectfully, disagree with you again. I personally would prefer to just see this thing knocked down now, quickly, take the financial and social hit all at once and then be done with it.If people isolate, the virus will run out of hosts... end of problem. But if we keep mucking around - kids partying on beaches or with each other, covid parties at homes, walking around without masks, working non-essential jobs? Then what?

We may risk dragging it on for a long time. Consider the long term effects of limited air, land and sea travel and commerce, verses the short term? This does not seem to act like "normal" flu that appears seasonally. It is also already here in Davao, where it is hot and humid - so that argument also won't work...

As always... perhaps I am wrong in my thinking?

This entire thing is unprecedented, except for the time of Spanish flu a century ago... 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Tommy T.

[Dave Hounddriver]

2 hours ago, scott h said:

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3

As of March 3rd, yes.  As of today it is 5%.  Easy to do the math.  I can walk you through it or you can divide number of deaths by number of cases worldwide.  Wonder why the WHO is not updating their number?  Rhetorical.  They do not want to tell people how the death rate is rising daily.

[Dave Hounddriver]

46 minutes ago, Marvin Boggs said:

 The fact is way more people have the virus than they know about, making every number being reported skewed to the high end

I disagree.  In many countries the reported deaths are low.  Why do they have low death rate.  People are dying and the cause is not being reported as covid.  How do I know that?  Same way you know there are more people that have the virus than are reporting it.  Its just the way it is.

So you can preach its all overblown and I can preach that it is more serious than people believe.  In the end, all preaching comes down to faith in the one doing the preaching.  I have faith that you are a pretty smart fellow.  I just do not have faith in your preaching that this is just another flu.

[scott h]

32 minutes ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

As of today it is 5%.

yep it stands at 5% world wide death rate, 

just for fun, check my numbers...….. I show a 2.3% death rate in the USA

a 1.1% rate in Canada

a 10% rate in Italy

6% in Iran

1% in Germany

4% here in the Philippines (frankly I think that is way under reported)

1.5% in Korea

9% in Spain 

2% in India (this is going to be a hot spot real soon imo)

39 minutes ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

I can preach that it is more serious than people believe. 

 I will agree that it is more serious (or fatal) depending upon where you live. Third world or even a first world with a poor heath care system you don't want to get it.

As an individual, if a person is high risk they MUST, MUST, MUST take MAXIMUM precautions 

As a government I think Geoff said it best 

2 hours ago, GeoffH said:

It's about managing things towards an acceptable level of risk IMO.

 

[GeoffH]

1 hour ago, Marvin Boggs said:

But also, this one seems to have ample number of cures / treatments.

It has as of this moment exactly zero cures and zero treatments, any 'treatment' given to patients is purely to allow thier own immune system longer to fight against the virus.  Fluids so people don't dehydrate, supplemental oxygen so they won't suffocate etc.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by GeoffH