The Visa / COVID interface.

[Tommy T.]

So maybe this post is considered bullshit or not in the appropriate topic... I found this today and it scares the shit out of me:

>After Plummeting, the Virus Soars Back in the Midwest

Julie Bosman, Manny Fernandez and Thomas Fuller  5 hrs ago

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After Plummeting, the Virus Soars Back in the Midwest

CHICAGO — First, the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast were hit hardest as the coronavirus tore through the nation. Then it surged across the South. Now the virus is again picking up dangerous speed in much of the Midwest — and in states from Mississippi to Florida to California that thought they had already seen the worst of it.

© William Widmer for The New York Times Members of the Army oversaw a drive-through coronavirus testing site in Opelousas, La., on Thursday. Many Americans have been frustrated with lengthy delays for results.

As the United States rides what amounts to a second wave of cases, with daily new infections leveling off at an alarming higher mark, there is a deepening national sense that the progress made in fighting the pandemic is coming undone and no patch of America is safe.

In Missouri, Wisconsin and Illinois, distressed government officials are retightening restrictions on residents and businesses, and sounding warnings about a surge in coronavirus-related hospitalizations.

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In the South and the West, several states are reporting their highest levels of new coronavirus cases, with outbreaks overwhelming urban and rural areas alike.

Across the country, communities including Snohomish County, Wash., Jackson, Miss., and Baton Rouge, La., have seen coronavirus numbers fall and then shoot back up — not unlike the two ends of a seesaw.

In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker sounded an unusually somber note this past week as he delivered a warning that reverberated across the state: Even though Illinoisans had battled an early flood of coronavirus infections and then managed to reduce the virus’s spread, their successes were fleeting. As of Thursday, the state was averaging more than 1,400 cases a day, up from about 800 at the start of July.

 

 

Renee Leonard, Delisa Craig and Miriam Girata help one another put on personal protective equipment at  a testing site in Orlando, Fla., on Tuesday.

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Renee Leonard, Delisa Craig and Miriam Girata help one another put on personal protective equipment at  a testing site in Orlando, Fla., on Tuesday.

“We’re at a danger point,” Mr. Pritzker said in Peoria County, where the total number of cases has doubled in the last month.

Gone is any sense that the country may soon get a hold of the pandemic. Instead, the seven-day average for new infections hovered around 65,000 for two weeks. Progress in some states has been mostly offset by growing outbreaks in parts of the South and the Midwest.

“There’s a sort of collective tiredness and frustration, and of course I feel it, too — we all feel it,” said County Judge Lina Hidalgo, the top elected official in Harris County, which includes Houston. “So it’s difficult to know that there’s no real end in sight.”

On Friday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, told Congress he was cautiously optimistic that a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine would be available by the end of the year or early 2021, though the federal government’s ability to speedily immunize most Americans was unclear.

Even finding out who has the virus is a challenge, as testing programs have frustrated many Americans with lengthy delays in providing results.

The picture is similarly depressing overseas, where even governments that would seem well suited to combating the virus are seeing resurgences.

New daily infections in Japan, a country with a long tradition of wearing face masks, rose more than 50 percent in July. Australia, which can cut itself off from the rest of the world more easily than most, is battling a wave of infections in and around Melbourne. Hong Kong, Israel and Spain are also fighting second waves.

None of those places has an infection rate as high as the United States, which has the most cases and deaths in the world, more than the next two hardest-hit countries — Brazil and England — combined.

In American communities that saw improvement in June, such as Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, there was a widespread feeling of relief, said Dr. Ben Weston, the director of medical services for the Milwaukee County Office of Emergency Management.

But then mask-wearing and social distancing began to relax.

“There was a sense of complacency, like, ‘We’re finally beyond this, it’s finally getting better,’” he said. “We were seeing our numbers go down, but the reason is because of physical distancing. It’s because people were being so careful. There was no reason to think that cases weren’t going to rise.”

On Thursday, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, made another attempt to get a handle on the outbreaks in his state, issuing an order that every Wisconsinite wear a mask indoors in public beginning Saturday.

Many states have traced new outbreaks to the loosening of the economically costly restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of the virus.

In California, which has had more than 500,000 coronavirus cases, more than any other state, the reopening has proved disastrous. When the pandemic was ravaging the Northeast in March and April, California kept its daily case count around 2,000, and the state was praised for its early and aggressive actions to combat the virus.

The state is now averaging more than four times as many cases — 8,500 a day. Los Angeles County and other Southern California counties account for the majority of the state’s infections, but the virus is now everywhere.

That notion was reinforced on Tuesday when health officials in one of the most remote parts of the state, Modoc County, which had been the last of California’s 58 counties without a known case, announced that the virus had arrived.

A waitress at the Brass Rail, a Basque restaurant and bar, tested positive, raising concerns about the virus’s spread in a tight-knit county with a population of 8,800 and where cows outnumber people five to one. (A billboard there warning residents of the coronavirus tells people to stand one cow’s length apart.)

The waitress and her husband recently returned from a trip to the Central Valley, according to the co-owner of the Brass Rail, Jodie Larranaga, who said she assumed that the waitress was infected during her journey.

That the virus is now present in the evergreen forests of the northeastern corner of the state is testament to its inexorable spread, say the county’s residents. Alturas, the only incorporated city in Modoc County, is so isolated that its high school football team must drive as long as five hours to reach its opponents.

“We all felt very safe for a while,” said Juan Ledezma, the owner of a thrift shop on Main Street in Alturas. “Right now, it’s a little bit scary.”

Businesses across the country have abandoned their own plans to return to normal in light of the virus’s resurgence.

The company that operates a popular water taxi on the Chicago River, ferrying commuters to work each day, had hoped to reopen by Labor Day. This week, officials postponed those plans until March.

The historic Berghoff restaurant in Chicago’s Loop reopened at the end of June after months of closure, a sign that the coronavirus curve had flattened and the city’s downtown was ready to start humming again.

This week, as coronavirus infections surged in Illinois, the restaurant abruptly shut its doors for the second time.

“It broke my heart,” said Pete Berghoff, whose family has owned the restaurant since 1898. “We reopened, and after about three weeks my enthusiasm was beaten out of me.”

From state to state and region to region, the picture of coronavirus spread is shifting daily as some communities see gradual improvement and others suddenly struggle.

A few places, including Arizona, South Carolina and Texas, have started to see new case reports drop after huge surges. California, Florida and Louisiana continue to report some of their highest daily totals of the pandemic.

The Rio Grande Valley in Texas is suffering through perhaps the worst current outbreak in the country, with hundreds of new cases and dozens of deaths a day. In more than half of states, outbreaks continue to grow.

In Missouri and Oklahoma, cases have grown to alarming levels, with both states now averaging more than 1,000 each day. And in Maryland, daily case numbers are ticking upward again after periods of sustained progress.

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The Northeast, once the virus’s biggest hot spot, has improved considerably since its peak in April, when the region suffered more than any other region of the country. Yet cases are now increasing slightly in New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, as residents move around more freely and gather more frequently in groups.

Across the country, deaths from the coronavirus continue to rise. The country was averaging about 500 per day at the start of July. Over the last week, it has averaged more than 1,000 daily, with many of those concentrated in Sun Belt states. On Wednesday, California, Florida and Texas reported a combined 724 deaths, about half the national total.

Houston, the fourth-largest city in the country, has been adjusting to a new normal where the only thing certain is that nothing is certain. After cases and hospitalizations seemed to level off and even decrease in recent days, Harris County on Friday broke a single-day record with 2,100 new cases.

“I think to a certain extent, we saw a spike because people were fatigued over it,” said Alan Rosen, who leads the Harris County Precinct One constable’s office. “They were fatigued over hearing about it every day. They were fatigued about being cooped up in their house and being away from people.”

People there have been coping with the lulls and peaks of a physical, emotional, fiscal and logistical crisis from an invisible foe nearly three years after surviving Hurricane Harvey, one of the worst disasters in American history.

“It is a roller coaster,” said Mr. Rosen, who recovered after getting infected with the virus in May. “It’s not like a hurricane that’s coming through and we know what to do. We know we got to clean up and rebuild and everybody is accustomed to the time frame. But with this, there are just so many unknowns.”

Julie Bosman reported from Chicago, Manny Fernandez from Houston and Thomas Fuller from Alturas, Calif. Mitch Smith contributed reporting from Chicago.<

Edited August 2, 2020 by Tommy T.

[Jollygoodfellow]

43 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

So maybe this post is considered bullshit or not in the appropriate topic... I found this today and it scares the shit out of me:

>After Plummeting, the Virus Soars Back in the Midwest

Google Victoria, Australia

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, Jollygoodfellow said:

Google Victoria, Australia

I don't have to... I'm there.

We're expecting stage 4 restrictions to be announced this afternoon for Melbourne and surrounding areas (not sure about further rural areas in the state of Victoria).

Probably a good thing (the stricter restrictions) because I'm still seeing a lot of people not wearing masks.

*Edit*

6 week time frame - Official State of Disaster declared.

Victorian metro areas; STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS - Night time curfew (except for essential work 8pm until 8am), only 1 person to do the shopping per household, shopping only allowed within 5 kilometers of the house, only 1 hour of excercise per person (in groups of not more than 2 people from the same house) and only within 5 kilometers of the house.  All non-essential businesses will either work from home or close, essential businesses will stay open (more details tomorrow).  No longer be able to have visitors at home, or visit other people’s homes if you live in Greater Melbourne and some regional LGAs with significant cases.  Schools will return to remote learning except for where students need special care.

Other Victorian rural/country areas;  STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS  or Modified STAGE 3 (depending upon the LGA)

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by GeoffH

[hk blues]

None of this should be a surprise - we closed down things to arrest or at least slow, the spread of the virus and, in the absence of any significant changes to the virus or vaccine, of course numbers will jump back up as we loosen restrictions. 

And the theory that it'll blow over as the temperature rises doesn't seem to be working. 

We need  a vaccine - people cannot follow the control measures consistently over a long period of time.

[OnMyWay]

3 hours ago, hk blues said:

None of this should be a surprise - we closed down things to arrest or at least slow, the spread of the virus and, in the absence of any significant changes to the virus or vaccine, of course numbers will jump back up as we loosen restrictions. 

And the theory that it'll blow over as the temperature rises doesn't seem to be working. 

We need  a vaccine - people cannot follow the control measures consistently over a long period of time.

Yes, closing down only slows it temporarily, at great cost.  Until there is a vaccine, the only way it can really go down to almost nothing is through herd immunity. 

5 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

I found this today and it scares the shit out of me:

Of course Tommy.  That is their objective.  Find the most negative things possible and push them hard until November.  More shutdowns is their goal too.  Anything to change the result in November.  Consequences be damned.  Economy, school, kids health, suicides, other diseases, police.  Anarchists rioting, look the other way or call them peaceful.  These  are the sacrifices that they are willing to make.

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, OnMyWay said:

Yes, closing down only slows it temporarily, at great cost.  Until there is a vaccine, the only way it can really go down to almost nothing is through herd immunity.

I was reading today about Vietnam - although they have taken a hit in the last few days they have managed to keep it under control.

As always with this virus, experts are guessing but they believe that the country's previous experience with SARS may be a major factor. Added to relatively low numbers in places like Hong Kong and China - both hard hit hy SARS, and we can see how herd immunity could be our saviour.

I'm no fan of Boris Johnston, but his original plan to go with herd immunity wasn't so left field but, and it's a big but, the UK was starting from a zero base so it would have led to a catastrophic number of cases. Right idea, wrong place IMO.

[GeoffH]

59 minutes ago, hk blues said:

I'm no fan of Boris Johnston, but his original plan to go with herd immunity wasn't so left field but, and it's a big but, the UK was starting from a zero base so it would have led to a catastrophic number of cases. Right idea, wrong place IMO.

Some people might think (given some of the posts I've made) that I'm against herd immunity but I'm not.

What I am against is not using control measures to slow the spread of the virus to the point where a countries health system isn't totally overwhelmed.

If I can use the example of Victoria where I am lots of people are panicking and blaming the government because there has been a second, much larger wave of cases.

But IMO that was always going to happen, it was only a matter of when.

The difference is during the preceeding 6 months of supressed case numbers the state now has double the number of ICU beds and several older hospitals and hospital wings which were in mothballs have been refurbished and fitted out for serious but not critical COVID cases.

I'm betting that there will be a working vaccine some time next year but governments need plans both if there is and if there isn't and supressing case numbers whilst increasing hospital and ICU beds and allowing time for treatments to be developed will greatly reduce case fatalities.

Herd immunity doesn't mean just letting the virus run rampant through a country.

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by GeoffH

[OnMyWay]

11 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

If I can use the example of Victoria where I am lots of people are panicking and blaming the government because there has been a second, much larger wave of cases.

I was curious to look at charts for just Victoria, but they don't have it on Worldmeters.  When you look at the Australia charts, they are somewhat unique in that you can really see the second wave.  In some U.S. states where some are saying they are having a second wave, they never had much of a first wave.

So is that second wave in Australia mainly caused by Victoria?  Did they have a mild first wave in Victoria?

 

[GeoffH]

44 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

When you look at the Australia charts, they are somewhat unique in that you can really see the second wave.  In some U.S. states where some are saying they are having a second wave, they never had much of a first wave.

So is that second wave in Australia mainly caused by Victoria?  Did they have a mild first wave in Victoria?

 

The Australian first wave was worst in New South Wales but Victoria was the second worst state albeit quite a way less.  It's my opinion that common and fast travel is 'smooshing' mini waves together and obscuring the wave effects in many countries but because Australia is isolated and closed their borders early we're seeing a more standard epidemic wave graph (that one is just my opinion though).

This time around Victoria is very much the epicenter of the second wave and New South Wales is in second place but a long long way behind (because of restricted cross border movement and fewer people travelling).

And yes the second wave is mostly being caused by Victoria the numbers don't look huge by world standards but to put them in perspective Victoria only has a population of around 6 million so the number of cases per head of population is actually quite high at more than 1000 cases per million population (and would be near the top of the world graph well over the 100 per day per million line if they listed states not just countries).

*edit* I didn't realize that NSW had pretty much got their outbreak under control, all but about 250 of the roughly 6500 active cases are in Victoria .

Victorian Covid data (Victoria population 6.36 million) -:

https://covidlive.com.au/vic?fbclid=IwAR0RaLgu_t4JJDWOhCP3jXMQbInvLbM3kATv7YUW7K2F0myxxzae0oMHGzU

World Covid numbers per million -:

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by GeoffH

[scott h]

I am afraid the democratic countries of the world are fast approaching the hard decision point, as it doesn't seem that trusting the "people" to employ precautionary measures to curb the spread is working. 

They can either shut down their entire economies and face economic ruin, political suicide and in some countries social unrest.

or

determine what are acceptable loses and tough it out until a vaccine is developed. (and face political suicide that way also lol)

Hobsons choice