Got punted from Facebook because cv19

[Snowy79]

The problem with censorship is others try to instil their standards on you and some have some pretty screwed up standards.  In many cases it's people getting offended on other's behalf, a lot of whom weren't even offended in the first place.  

I had the pleasure of joining the military on my 16th birthday and my first unit was in England. I can safely say for about 6yrs I got abuse left right and centre as I'm Scottish.  Not once was I offended as I'd just remind them that they'd never be good enough to be Scottish.   I made some great friends even amongst those that had tried to put me down as once they knew they couldn't intimidate me they accepted me. 

I think the modern culture is to be offended first and think last.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Snowy79

[Tommy T.]

2 hours ago, Mike J said:

2.  High mortality rate - normal flu the mortality rate is .1 percent, corona is 3.4% .  For those of us that are "math challenged", that means if you get this flu you are 34 times more likely to die than from the regular flu.

 

And it's much higher for us old poops, Mike... You neglected to mention that... something like almost 10% for those above 60?

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, AusExpat said:

As more testing techniques have been developed there is a new study out of Stanford in California says 50-85 times higher infection rates than originally thought so the fatality rate is much lower, in fact the same as the 'flu - 0.12% to 0.2% and that they may have already passed the 'herd immunity' stage in CA.

 

Those estimates and links are cherry picked at the very low end of the scale, OTOH people quoting 3 to 4% are almost certainly too high.  The numbers are edging lower as more testing is done (but I expected that).  What we will not see is the numbers get as low as seasonal influenza.

Ignoring the availability of a vaccine for influenza and the lack of one for Sars-COV-19 (COVID-19) underestimates the potential number of fatalities, after all it isn't just about percentages it is also (mainly) about total deaths.

This LANCET study suggests an overall fatality rate of around 0.65% which is 3 to 5 times more deadly than seasonal influenza but doesn't take into consideration the fact that most people have option to get a seasonal influenza shot and people in high risk groups (where rates of this virus are estimated at roughly 4 to 8% fatality) regularly do so.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by GeoffH

[Tommy T.]

1 hour ago, Snowy79 said:

I think the modern culture is to be offended first and think last.

So Snowy... please send me any extra dilithium crystals you might have there?  I could use the boost.

Just kidding you and encouraging you too!

[OnMyWay]

2 hours ago, Mike J said:

The OP tried to trivialize the corona virus flu by saying it was not even as bad a regular flu in terms of deaths.  About the only truth in his comparison is that they are both called "flu".  Regular flu did kill 80,000 in 2018 people in the USA, an exceptionaly high count by the way.    Why lockdown corona? 

Two reasons:

1.  No protection - There is no vaccine and no herd immunity because this virus in new.

2.  High mortality rate - normal flu the mortality rate is .1 percent, corona is 3.4% .  For those of us that are "math challenged", that means if you get this flu you are 34 times more likely to die than from the regular flu.

Almost 50,000 people in the US have died of this virus in just a few weeks and that is with a lockdown.  Try to imagine what the results would have been with no social distancing, no quarantines, etc.  Most health experts have already expressed regret that the USA was too little and too late in responding to the outbreak.

People who post BS on Facebook that puts the public in danger should be booted for being irresponsible.  I do not have one iota of sympathy for the OP getting booted.

 

 

Wow, Mike, you surprised me with this response.  I usually see well thought out and logical posts by you.  I see that AusExpat has responded with some of what I would say.

The OP said he saw some LOCAL "facts" presented on FB that didn't appear right to him.  So he did some research and presented some alternative "facts".  I reread his post.  It really does not warrant your condemnation of him.  He was chatting with someone he knows in San Diego, and not pushing an agenda. 

So who is the official source of facts on Covid-19?  Facebook?  CDC? WHO? San Diego? Worldometers?  Where did you get your fact that the Covid-19 mortality rate is 3.4%?  Here is a quote from Worldometers:

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:  “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]

First of all, right off the bat, there is a probable discrepancy.  They said "mortality rate" but how would they calculate mortality rate, meaning (Deaths due to Covid-19) / (Total Infected With Covid-19) ?  Nobody knows the denominator.  As time goes by, the denominator will get more accurate but even with testing, it will always be an estimate.  Same with the regular flu.  There must be a lot of estimating done for the regular flu too.  Secondly, 3.4% is from March 3rd, when very little testing was being done.  Testing adds to the denominator and also helps with estimates.

A common figure used is Case Fatality Ratio.  (Deaths due to Covid-19) / (Total confirmed cases of Covid-19).  I think it is often mistakenly called the Death Rate or Mortality Rate.  Both are wrong descriptions.

It is estimated that up to 85% of Covid-19 cases are unreported.  Why?  No symptoms.  Mild symptoms.  Worse symptoms but no visit to hospital or doctor.  Personally, if I think I have it here in the Philippines, I'm staying home unless I think I am dying. 

So, in order to have a death rate, you need total cases, reported+unreported.  As far as I have seen, the experts agree that unreported is very high.  Let's do some math.  I will use the numbers for the U.S., right now on Worldometer.  Cases 848,735.  Deaths 47,663.  And I will make estimated death % for 90% unreported, 80% and 70%.  Here are the estimated death rates, and CFR.

CFR is scary.  Death %, not as bad.

Now, if we could break down those numbers by age group, and comorbidity, you find that the death % for older folks and people with diabetes and heart disease, etc., comprise most of the deaths.  Younger, healthy people have a very low death %.

I believe we should wear masks and use social distancing for quite some time.  Testing is important.  It is key to getting the world back to functioning.  If the world can't function, that is worse than the number of deaths we are talking about and will soon cause more deaths than the disease.

Bottom line is, I think the 3.4% mortality rate you presented is wrong.  So you should be banned from this forum for presenting it or discussing it.  Of course I am being sarcastic, but I hope you understand my point.

There are many controversial points to discuss related to Covid-19.  Some are far out there, but I don't think we have the evidence to totally dismiss many of them.

Have you heard the ventilator theory?  80% of patients in NY who go on the ventilator die.  I believe that is a fact.  Now some docs are saying that is the wrong treatment because Covid-19 is not actually pneumonia, although pneumonia is present.  Something to do with oxygen saturation in the blood.  Covid-19 is more like altitude sickness.  Oxygen starvation.  They say that pure oxygen is a much better treatment.  Look it up.  If true, what a story it would be.  However, it would make many experts and politicians and media look foolish, so most likely it will be buried.  Let's wait and see if it can be proven true.

 

[OnMyWay]

1 hour ago, GeoffH said:

 

Those estimates and links are cherry picked at the very low end of the scale, OTOH people quoting 3 to 4% are almost certainly too high.  The numbers are edging lower as more testing is done (but I expected that).  What we will not see is the numbers get as low as seasonal influenza.

Ignoring the availability of a vaccine for influenza and the lack of one for Sars-COV-19 (COVID-19) underestimates the potential number of fatalities, after all it isn't just about percentages it is also (mainly) about total deaths.

This LANCET study suggests an overall fatality rate of around 0.65% which is 3 to 5 times more deadly than seasonal influenza but doesn't take into consideration the fact that most people have option to get a seasonal influenza shot and people in high risk groups (where rates of this virus are estimated at roughly 4 to 8% fatality) regularly do so.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

 

I don't disagree with anything you have said here.  There are so many "facts" around that we have to pick and choose the ones that seem to make sense to our personal logic.  Some people do more research to validate their hunch on facts presented, some don't do any and forward everything they see on FB.  My wife's sister is now a confirmed dingbat in my book.  I told my wife to block her!

Side note.  With any viral disease, isolation will help prevent the spread.  One nice side effect of the quarantine is reduction in other diseases.  We have 3 school age children.  We constantly have colds, runny noses, etc., in our family.  And that causes asthma related reactions in some of us.  Our last day of school was March 16th, my daughter's 6th birthday.  Quarantine started on the 17th.  We have had ZERO colds, runny noses, flus, asthma!  Our friends from school report the same.  Everybody is healthier because they are isolated.  My wife and I still have some allergies.  Sometimes those trigger something worse, but so far, no.

[Mike J]

10 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

Bottom line is, I think the 3.4% mortality rate you presented is wrong.  So you should be banned from this forum for presenting it or discussing it.  Of course I am being sarcastic, but I hope you understand my point.

I do get your message and am not in the least offended.  I agree the mortality rate is all over the map.  Probably better to just look at the hard data, the absolute numbers, we are seeing Americans dying at the rate of 2000 plus per day from corona or complications from corona.   And that 2000 plus deaths per day is after all the extreme measures taken by local, state, and federal governments.   I stand by my belief that anyone, especially those high in government, who compares the danger of  covid to regular flu is doing damage to efforts to put this pandemic behind us.

 

[AusExpat]

4 hours ago, GeoffH said:

Those estimates and links are cherry picked at the very low end of the scale, OTOH people quoting 3 to 4% are almost certainly too high.  The numbers are edging lower as more testing is done (but I expected that).  What we will not see is the numbers get as low as seasonal influenza.

Ignoring the availability of a vaccine for influenza and the lack of one for Sars-COV-19 (COVID-19) underestimates the potential number of fatalities, after all it isn't just about percentages it is also (mainly) about total deaths.

This LANCET study suggests an overall fatality rate of around 0.65% which is 3 to 5 times more deadly than seasonal influenza but doesn't take into consideration the fact that most people have option to get a seasonal influenza shot and people in high risk groups (where rates of this virus are estimated at roughly 4 to 8% fatality) regularly do so.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Could you please explain how the NIH and University of California cherry picked the data?

This is the latest data (last week) from testing the general population for anti-bodies so getting to know how many people had the virus without seeing a doctor or hospital, thus getting a true estimate of how many people had the virus to how many died from it, this will give a true fatality rate rather than just testing people with symptoms who seek help. The Lancet article has dates from Feb and March so the information doesn't include current testing abilities.

The problem with this is there really was no data so the best estimates are changing quickly as more data and newer testing comes in. The other issue is that if htis has been going around longer than was thought then there might have been some unaccounted for deaths early on.

Another point is that these tests are made in America and are more reliable than earlier tests where Spain, Turkey  and the Czech Republic had to send theirs back to China as the results were too inconsistent (Businessinsider.com claims 30% of tests worked, here's another article https://www.nationalreview.com/news/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic/ also the Dutch had to send back a whole load of masks that were poorly made and ill fitting event though they had quality stamps.

About total deaths, I could well be wrong but I thought these were down overall as there are less accidents and less iatrogenesis - death by doctors - according to CNBC the third leading cause of death in America - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

Can you tell I have too much time to read right now?

Edited April 23, 2020 by AusExpat

[Jollygoodfellow]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a merry Christmas and a happy new year. 

 

[Tommy T.]

48 minutes ago, AusExpat said:

iatrogenesis

Huh? I am impressed. Even Geoff hasn't come up with that word before!!!