Got punted from Facebook because cv19

[Tommy T.]

!     

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tommy T.

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, AusExpat said:

Could you please explain how the NIH and University of California cherry picked the data?

I didn't mean that the NIH and the University of California cherry picked the data, I was implying that you had (perhaps without meaning to) cherry picked studies which supported your point, I suspect that we're all been guilty of that at some point (including me).

I honestly don't know (and I don't think anyone else does either) what the ultimate figure will be but I'll happily bet a case of San Miguel Light (or Pilsen if you prefer) that it will be at least higher than that of seasonal flu :)

To be fair... I'd be happy to pay up if it turns out to be less than 0.5% (whereas Influenza is reportedly around 0.15% to 0.2%).

Edited April 23, 2020 by GeoffH

[AusExpat]

1 hour ago, GeoffH said:

I didn't mean that the NIH and the University of California cherry picked the data, I was implying that you had (perhaps without meaning to) cherry picked studies which supported your point, I suspect that we're all been guilty of that at some point (including me).

I honestly don't know (and I don't think anyone else does either) what the ultimate figure will be but I'll happily bet a case of San Miguel Light (or Pilsen if you prefer) that it will be at least higher than that of seasonal flu :)

To be fair... I'd be happy to pay up if it turns out to be less than 0.5% (whereas Influenza is reportedly around 0.15% to 0.2%).

Better idea, we plan on going to Dumagette and Cebu later this year, maybe we pop over and you can show us around CDO a little and I'll buy the beers either way? (As long as you don't do a Merv Hughes!)

Edited April 23, 2020 by AusExpat

[gbmmbg]

11 hours ago, Mike J said:

 

The OP tried to trivialize the corona virus flu by saying it was not even as bad a regular flu in terms of deaths.  About the only truth in his comparison is that they are both called "flu".  Regular flu did kill 80,000 in 2018 people in the USA, an exceptionaly high count by the way.    Why lockdown corona?

Two reasons:

1.  No protection - There is no vaccine and no herd immunity because this virus in new.

2.  High mortality rate - normal flu the mortality rate is .1 percent, corona is 3.4% .  For those of us that are "math challenged", that means if you get this flu you are 34 times more likely to die than from the regular flu.

Almost 50,000 people in the US have died of this virus in just a few weeks and that is with a lockdown.  Try to imagine what the results would have been with no social distancing, no quarantines, etc.  Most health experts have already expressed regret that the USA was too little and too late in responding to the outbreak.

People who post BS on Facebook that puts the public in danger should be booted for being irresponsible.  I do not have one iota of sympathy for the OP getting booted.

 

 

Mike, not trying to get under your skin but I need to answer some of your assumptions you must have made.

1. The OP tried to trivialize the corona virus flu by saying it was not even as bad a regular flu in terms of deaths.  About the only truth in his comparison is that they are both called "flu".  Regular flu did kill 80,000 in 2018 people in the USA, an exceptionaly high count by the way.    Why lockdown corona?

 

I did not try to trivialize anything let alone someone's death. I was asking a group of friends that my wife worked with at the hospital in San Diego for the last 27 years " what is the difference this time?" "Should San Diego have been shut down in 2017 and 2018 and it was not?"  The numbers were relating to San Diego, not nation wide. However sence you stated I was putting the public in danger with my statement were did you get the 80,000 deaths in 2018. According to the CDC it was only 61000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm.

Inflating numbers might not be a good thing to do, it puts people in danger when they make decisions using incorrect information. 

 

2.No protection - There is no vaccine and no herd immunity because this virus in new.

The first statement I agree with you 100%, however unfortunately until  we have mass testing we don't know how many people have been exposed so we don't know if we " don't have herd immunity".

 

3.Almost 50,000 people in the US have died of this virus in just a few weeks and that is with a lockdown. 

 

I'm not disputing the amount of people who have died. However the first case was 21 Jan 2019 according to CBS news. 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-coronavirus-started/story?id=69435165

So we're talking 13 weeks not " just a few" let's stick to the numbers please. 

4.Try to imagine what the results would have been with no social distancing, no quarantines, etc.  Most health experts have already expressed regret that the USA was too little and too late in responding to the outbreak.

Please see the chart below it is from the cdc.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

As of 22 Apr 2019 there were "21050" deaths from cv19 and "51907" from pneumonia and if you look at the link the rate of death from pneumonia jumps faster then cv19 during social distancing. So that means social distancing is driving up the rate of death from pneumonia? No,correlation does not imply causation and unfortunately until we have all the numbers we will not "know" how bad this is.

Data as of April 22, 2020

Week ending date in which the death occurred	COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1	Deaths from All Causes	Percent of Expected Deaths2	Pneumonia Deaths (J12.0–J18.9)3	Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 (J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)3	Influenza Deaths (J09–J11)4	Population5
Total Deaths	21,050	632,092	92	51,907	9,467	5,474	327,167,434

 

5.People who post BS on Facebook that puts the public in danger should be booted for being irresponsible.  I do not have one iota of sympathy for the OP getting booted.

 

So with the numbers from the CDC and CBS news I should be waiting for you to get booted? As you can see from my links your numbers were a " little off" and that puts the public in DANGER........lol just pulling your chain. I love a good discussion.

Edited April 23, 2020 by gbmmbg
Left something out.

[GeoffH]

16 minutes ago, AusExpat said:

Better idea, we plan on going to Dumagette and Cebu later this year, maybe we pop over and you can show us around CDO a little and I'll buy the beers either way? (As long as you don't do a Merv Hughes!)

As soon as these lockdowns finish and I can get back to CDO I will let you know, happy to show you around.

We can discuss who pays for the beer later LOL

[Arizona Kid]

On 4/22/2020 at 9:54 AM, Tommy T. said:

Personally, I do feel sorry for your being locked out of your FaceBook accounts. But I also really hate FaceBook and think it is overused and contains a lot of rubbish in its "news" and other content. So this is from someone who does not use it at all... I just think it is a waste of online data. I see the stuff that L views and it seems to be so much bull****. Okay... another of my short rants here... sorry...

I only use Facebook for a few games that I like to play. Why anyone would use it to get current news is beyond comprehension.

[Mike J]

53 minutes ago, gbmmbg said:

Mike, not trying to get under your skin but I need to answer some of your assumptions you must have made.

1. The OP tried to trivialize the corona virus flu by saying it was not even as bad a regular flu in terms of deaths.  About the only truth in his comparison is that they are both called "flu".  Regular flu did kill 80,000 in 2018 people in the USA, an exceptionaly high count by the way.    Why lockdown corona?

 

I did not try to trivialize anything let alone someone's death. I was asking a group of friends that my wife worked with at the hospital in San Diego for the last 27 years " what is the difference this time?" "Should San Diego have been shut down in 2017 and 2018 and it was not?"  The numbers were relating to San Diego, not nation wide. However sence you stated I was putting the public in danger with my statement were did you get the 80,000 deaths in 2018. According to the CDC it was only 61000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm.

Inflating numbers might not be a good thing to do, it puts people in danger when they make decisions using incorrect information. 

 

2.No protection - There is no vaccine and no herd immunity because this virus in new.

The first statement I agree with you 100%, however unfortunately until  we have mass testing we don't know how many people have been exposed so we don't know if we " don't have herd immunity".

 

3.Almost 50,000 people in the US have died of this virus in just a few weeks and that is with a lockdown. 

 

I'm not disputing the amount of people who have died. However the first case was 21 Jan 2019 according to CBS news. 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-coronavirus-started/story?id=69435165

So we're talking 13 weeks not " just a few" let's stick to the numbers please. 

4.Try to imagine what the results would have been with no social distancing, no quarantines, etc.  Most health experts have already expressed regret that the USA was too little and too late in responding to the outbreak.

Please see the chart below it is from the cdc.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

As of 22 Apr 2019 there were "21050" deaths from cv19 and "51907" from pneumonia and if you look at the link the rate of death from pneumonia jumps faster then cv19 during social distancing. So that means social distancing is driving up the rate of death from pneumonia? No,correlation does not imply causation and unfortunately until we have all the numbers we will not "know" how bad this is.

Data as of April 22, 2020

Week ending date in which the death occurred	COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1	Deaths from All Causes	Percent of Expected Deaths2	Pneumonia Deaths (J12.0–J18.9)3	Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 (J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)3	Influenza Deaths (J09–J11)4	Population5
Total Deaths	21,050	632,092	92	51,907	9,467	5,474	327,167,434

 

5.People who post BS on Facebook that puts the public in danger should be booted for being irresponsible.  I do not have one iota of sympathy for the OP getting booted.

 

So with the numbers from the CDC and CBS news I should be waiting for you to get booted? As you can see from my links your numbers were a " little off" and that puts the public in DANGER........lol just pulling your chain. I love a good discussion.

First off I do owe you an apology.  After reading your post again (twice) I can see that you did not "trivilize" the pandemic.  So my sincere apology.

Back to the numbers:

1.  I stand corrected, your 61,000 is correct.  The site I looked at had the 80,000 number.  The CDC actually addresses the difference in the site you referenced.

<snip> 

Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?

The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information.  There is a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy of the burden estimates. To provide timely burden estimates to the public, clinicians, and public health decision-makers, we use preliminary data that may lead to over- or under-estimates of the true burden.  However, each season’s estimates will be finalized when data on testing practices and deaths for that season are available.

<end snip>

2.  We agree on no vaccine and it is not looking good for the anti-malaria drug that was being hyped.  I would agree it is too early to definitively say there is no herd immunity.  I hope there already is, but it just seems unlikely that herd immunity would have built so quickly, especially given the social distancing.

3.  I think we would both agree that "three" weeks would be considered a "few".  There have been 43,711 deaths in the USA since April 1st.  I will admit that 43,711 is short of 50,000.  Unfortunately that number may hit 50K in another "few" days.  See how I did that. 

4.  If you catch the flu and then die of pneumonia, I would argue that the corona was (probably?)  the proximate cause of death.  But, then again, I am not the score keeper.

5.  We are both still here so I guess everyone will have to put up with us. 

Again, my sincere apologies.  Some information that was pushed out early and often put the US population at additional risk (in my opinion) and I guess my knickers are still a bit twisted.    I have a brother 72, and a sister 69,  living in the US and I can't help but wonder if I will ever see them again.  

Edited April 23, 2020 by Mike J
Because I can't spell

[gbmmbg]

13 minutes ago, Mike J said:

 

3.  I think we would both agree that "three" weeks would be considered a "few".  There have been 43,711 deaths in the USA since April 1st.  I will admit that 43,711 is short of 50,000.  Unfortunately that number may hit 50K in another "few" days.  See how I did that. 

4.  If you catch the flu and then die of pneumonia, I would argue that the corona was (probably?)  the proximate cause of death.  But, then again, I am not the score keeper.

Tnx for the response, once again im not trying to argue but the 43,711 is total deaths from 21 jan 2019 the date of the first reported case. Not since April 1st. So 13 weeks is the time frame for the deaths not three weeks.

The chart in statement 4 shows 51907 people died from pneumonia of that 9467 were cv-19 positive. so that leaves 42440 who died from pneumonia that were cv-19 negative. almost 2X the rate of death of 21050 from cv-19 at the time. looking at the full chart you can see that the rate of death is 2 to 3 times higher then cv-19 for the last 4 weeks of the table.

When this is all over, if your ever in Cebu we need to get tougher for a beer and hoping all the best for you and your family both here and back in the states.

 

greg.

[intrepid]

   

[Mike J]

1 hour ago, gbmmbg said:

Tnx for the response, once again im not trying to argue but the 43,711 is total deaths from 21 jan 2019 the date of the first reported case. Not since April 1st. So 13 weeks is the time frame for the deaths not three weeks.

The chart in statement 4 shows 51907 people died from pneumonia of that 9467 were cv-19 positive. so that leaves 42440 who died from pneumonia that were cv-19 negative. almost 2X the rate of death of 21050 from cv-19 at the time. looking at the full chart you can see that the rate of death is 2 to 3 times higher then cv-19 for the last 4 weeks of the table.

When this is all over, if your ever in Cebu we need to get tougher for a beer and hoping all the best for you and your family both here and back in the states.

 

greg.

The 44,711 does start from April 1.  I checked the daily numbers and added them up.  The number of deaths rose dramatically starting late March, early April.  Has been 2500 plus for about two weeks now.   It seems to start to drop but goes up and drops again then repeats.  I think it may reflect the wave that hits the bigger cities?  Despite these spikes the overall trend is down so hopefully we are over the hump.  Beer sounds good.