Forum Support Mike J Posted April 25, 2020 Forum Support Posted April 25, 2020 Found this article that speaks about the Stanford study. https://www.ksbw.com/article/stanford-study-shows-herd-immunity-is-long-way-off/32226060 STANFORD, Calif. — Results from a Standford Medicine study released Friday show far more people than previously believed have had coronavirus. However, based on the numbers California is still a long way off from herd immunity. Two weeks ago KSBW reported on a theory out of Stanford University's Hoover Institute and the possibility that Californians may have developed some early herd immunity to COVID-19. Results from the Stanford Medicine study do not provide evidence in support of the theory. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, estimates between 2.49 percent to 4.16 percent of people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, 2020. Those numbers are nowhere near the herd immunity threshold of 50 percent needed to slow down the transmission of a disease. The study did show that 50 to 85 times more people had COVID-19 in by early April than were reported by the county by the same date. Participants for the study were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county. In total blood samples were taken from 3,330 people at drive-up test sites around Santa Clara County over one weekend. Those samples were then tested for antibodies to COVID-19. Testing for COVID-19 has been limited since local health departments first began testing for the virus. Now researchers are employing antibody testing to see what cases were missed and to get a better picture of how the disease has spread throughout communities. "It just helps us plan better," said Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and one of the paper’s authors. Bhattacharya said information from these studies will improve projections and disease modeling. Epidemiologists and public health officers have said it's clear there have been more people infected than they've tested for but it's been unclear how much higher the number of infections could be. "Before, we were making policy in the dark," said Bhattacharya. The research may also give a more realistic sense of how deadly the virus really is because before the fatality rate was artificially high. "If I get the infection, how likely is it I'm going to die? That number depends on knowing how many people have had the infection, not just actively have it now, but have had it and recovered from it," said Bhattacharya. Similar efforts to estimate local antibody prevalence have launched in places like Miami-Dade County, San Miguel County, and Los Angeles County. LA County Public Health reports results from its first round of testing show approximately 4.1 percent of the county's adult population has antibody to COVID-19. Researchers there say adjusting this estimate for a statistical margin of error implies between 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has antibodies to the virus. Those figures translating to between 221,000 and 442,000 adults in LA County who have had the infection and survived it. The estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. Los Angles County has surpassed the Bay Area as California’s epicenter for COVID-19 with the number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600. In Bolinas, California researchers are testing the entire town for coronavirus. Researchers plan to test all about 1,600 people, who live in the unincorporated community in Marin County. Residents raised more than $300,000 to buy testing materials and set up the drive-thru testing site. They'll give a nasal swab, and a small amount of blood, for all tests. The community hopes the data will help other towns learn about the disease and its spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AusExpat Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Mike J said: Found this article that speaks about the Stanford study. https://www.ksbw.com/article/stanford-study-shows-herd-immunity-is-long-way-off/32226060 STANFORD, Calif. — Results from a Standford Medicine study released Friday show far more people than previously believed have had coronavirus. However, based on the numbers California is still a long way off from herd immunity. Two weeks ago KSBW reported on a theory out of Stanford University's Hoover Institute and the possibility that Californians may have developed some early herd immunity to COVID-19. Results from the Stanford Medicine study do not provide evidence in support of the theory. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, estimates between 2.49 percent to 4.16 percent of people in Santa Clara County had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1, 2020. Those numbers are nowhere near the herd immunity threshold of 50 percent needed to slow down the transmission of a disease. The study did show that 50 to 85 times more people had COVID-19 in by early April than were reported by the county by the same date. Participants for the study were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county. In total blood samples were taken from 3,330 people at drive-up test sites around Santa Clara County over one weekend. Those samples were then tested for antibodies to COVID-19. Testing for COVID-19 has been limited since local health departments first began testing for the virus. Now researchers are employing antibody testing to see what cases were missed and to get a better picture of how the disease has spread throughout communities. "It just helps us plan better," said Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and one of the paper’s authors. Bhattacharya said information from these studies will improve projections and disease modeling. Epidemiologists and public health officers have said it's clear there have been more people infected than they've tested for but it's been unclear how much higher the number of infections could be. "Before, we were making policy in the dark," said Bhattacharya. The research may also give a more realistic sense of how deadly the virus really is because before the fatality rate was artificially high. "If I get the infection, how likely is it I'm going to die? That number depends on knowing how many people have had the infection, not just actively have it now, but have had it and recovered from it," said Bhattacharya. Similar efforts to estimate local antibody prevalence have launched in places like Miami-Dade County, San Miguel County, and Los Angeles County. LA County Public Health reports results from its first round of testing show approximately 4.1 percent of the county's adult population has antibody to COVID-19. Researchers there say adjusting this estimate for a statistical margin of error implies between 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has antibodies to the virus. Those figures translating to between 221,000 and 442,000 adults in LA County who have had the infection and survived it. The estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. Los Angles County has surpassed the Bay Area as California’s epicenter for COVID-19 with the number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600. In Bolinas, California researchers are testing the entire town for coronavirus. Researchers plan to test all about 1,600 people, who live in the unincorporated community in Marin County. Residents raised more than $300,000 to buy testing materials and set up the drive-thru testing site. They'll give a nasal swab, and a small amount of blood, for all tests. The community hopes the data will help other towns learn about the disease and its spread. Cuomo said today 21% of NYC has had it, see link above, there is new information coming out daily. Alright someone is lying, even CNN says its 50-85 times higher and differnt case numbers, hmmmmm.... Quote https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases. Edited April 25, 2020 by AusExpat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Mike J Posted April 25, 2020 Forum Support Posted April 25, 2020 At some point in time the planet will get past this event. I am willing to wager that at the end there will three camps who opinions are: 1 - It was the flu! The whole thing was overblown from the beginning and hysteria set in. Fake news and the population fell for it. 2 - It was not overblown. Of course the numbers were lower than the worst case scenario. The worst case was if we treated it ordinary flu. The greatly reduced number of deaths and cases speaks to the effectiveness of social distance & limited lockdowns. 3 - What the hell really happened and who is telling the truth? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tommy T. said: There you are again, Geoff!!! Throwing around a $10 word! Glad I have dictionary on this laptop!!! That is at best a $2 word... Antidisestablishmentarianism... now that's a $10 word! (I hope I spelled that correctly LOL) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Mike J Posted April 25, 2020 Forum Support Posted April 25, 2020 Just now, GeoffH said: That is at best a $2 word... Antidisestablishmentarianism... now that's a $10 word! (I hope I spelled that correctly LOL) supercalifragilisticexpialidocious - kind of describes our posting on this forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, AusExpat said: The good take away from it all even at your highest rate of 1.2% is that the fatality rate is nowhere near the published Italian rates they used to scare everyone into their homes which leads us to question what were they doing that got the figures up so high? I suspect that it was simply a lack of testing, they were only seeing the cases where people presented with symptoms at the worse end of mild upwards and people who had very mild cases (or almost no symptoms) weren't being counted. So more 'what they weren't doing' (ie testing) than what they 'were doing', which implies that the actual Italian infection rates were much higher than published (so if we assume a 6% death rate published and an actual death rate of 1% then 6 times as many people were infected as were included in the figures). Edited April 25, 2020 by GeoffH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Tommy T. Posted April 25, 2020 Forum Support Posted April 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mike J said: At some point in time the planet will get past this event. I am willing to wager that at the end there will three camps who opinions are: 1 - It was the flu! The whole thing was overblown from the beginning and hysteria set in. Fake news and the population fell for it. 2 - It was not overblown. Of course the numbers were lower than the worst case scenario. The worst case was if we treated it ordinary flu. The greatly reduced number of deaths and cases speaks to the effectiveness of social distance & limited lockdowns. 3 - What the hell really happened and who is telling the truth? I think four camps, actually, Mike. You didn't mention the bevy of lawyers who will be practicing the sue you, sue me blues for years after this settles a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Tommy T. said: I think four camps, actually, Mike. You didn't mention the bevy of lawyers who will be practicing the sue you, sue me blues for years after this settles a bit? Those would fall into either camp 1 or camp 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnMyWay Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 8 hours ago, AusExpat said: Tyranny. Youtube deleted this video https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RZHQbKe9TtI&feature=youtu.be Because it is against community guidlines. It is a new therapy being trialed at the very well respected Cedars-Sinai Hospital and was a short information video on how the process works. So now Youtube are banning medical videos from legitimate hospitals if it goes against thier vaccine putsch. This is truly frightening that they think they have the power to do this. Well, that sucks. I thought You Tube was the exception to the rule but I guess Daddy Google laid down the law. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnMyWay Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 7 hours ago, GeoffH said: He made a math error in his calculations about the chances of people in California catching COVID-19, he used a 'snapshot number' not the sum of the total of the numbers under the graph over time. That underestimates the total number of cases and serious illness and then proceeds to base his case around that snapshot number. I'll go back and see if I can spot that. I wasn't paying much attention to the display. 7 hours ago, GeoffH said: Could an ER doctor in a private hospital ER that's seeing reduced ER patients possibly have a financial interest in seeing those numbers increase? hmmm? I thought about that too. However, I couldn't think why a doctor of any smarts and reputation would put it all on the line for a "few" dollars. You never know though. Are the ponies still running in California? Maybe he owes his bookie a huge amount of money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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