Three year post-lockdown plan

[hk blues]

2 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

If so, then I am okay with this for as long as it takes. If I sicken and go to a hospital here, I see the chances of surviving or recovering as between slim and none. Better to just not get sick at all.

If you look at the stats, Tom, your view seems extremely pessimistic - 10,343 cases, 1618 recovered and 685 dead.  Not terrible by any means compared to global numbers.

[Tommy T.]

42 minutes ago, hk blues said:

If you look at the stats, Tom, your view seems extremely pessimistic - 10,343 cases, 1618 recovered and 685 dead.  Not terrible by any means compared to global numbers.

I agree that my view is pessimistic, HK. I also agree that Philippines stats are not so bad, generally, compared to the rest of the world.

The general population numbers you just quoted show death rate of ~6.5%. Some of that I am basing on looking at the graphs that JGF referenced too. The death rate for males 60-70 years old hover around 10%. Also, some previous statistics I read earlier this week relative to USA quoted a death rate there to be ~88% of those who went into hospitals for care. I would expect that to be higher here, but have no proof or statistics to prove that. Of course, statistics can say anything we want at times... 

I also base my comments after being in hospitals for procedures and visitations here. If I were to be hospitalized, I would prefer to have that happen in Manila at one of the western accredited hospitals. Maybe it would not make a difference anyway? And, anyway, it's a moot point. And my thinking might be in error too? So that is simply my view at this time.

And even if I got sick, hospitalized and recovered... Billings of perhaps P50,000 to over P1.5 mln possible? Back to my original argument that I prefer to quarantine and not get sick at all... And that may have to be our long term 3-year plan? I guess we'll see...

Edited May 8, 2020 by Tommy T.

[hk blues]

1 minute ago, Tommy T. said:

Back to my original argument that I prefer to quarantine and not get sick at all... 

Amen to that!

[GeoffH]

1 hour ago, Tommy T. said:

I agree that my view is pessimistic, HK. I also agree that Philippines stats are not so bad, generally compared to the rest of the world.

I also agree that the Philippines stats are not so bad compared to many countries in the world, particularly in comparison to other countries of similar income levels.

IMHO that is a direct result of the lockdowns

But I've been tracking Philippine infection numbers and confirmed cases have tripled in the last month, that implies a doubling time of about 18 days (which isn't bad compared to some other countries, even first world ones) however even with the lockdown regulations slowing the number of new cases are still outnumbering recoveries which means the R nought number is greater than 1.  Not by a lot maybe... but above 1. 

This virus isn't going to go away in the Philippines... not in the short term anyway :(

Edited May 8, 2020 by GeoffH

[Jollygoodfellow]

8 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

This seems lots better than in many western cities of comparable size? If so, then I am okay with this for as long as it takes.

For some it might be longer and I would say if they approve this then other Cities like Cebu will follow.

Metro mayors to discuss ECQ extension to June 15

Spoiler

The Metro’s top policymaking body will discuss on Saturday the possibility of extending the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in all 17 cities and the remaining municipality to June 15.

This was according to Parañaque Mayor Edwin Olivarez, who is also the chair of the Metro Manila Council (MMC) composed of the 17 chief executives in the National Capital Region (NCR).

The MMC is expected to forward its recommendation to the Interagency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases on extending the ECQ in the metropolis as the mayors grapple with the consequences of lifting quarantine restrictions too early.

Olivarez was the first mayor to express his support for the ECQ extension, citing the current situation in San Juan, Mandaluyong, Makati and Parañaque, which currently have the highest number of coronavirus cases per capita.

The ECQ in Metro Manila and other provinces was expected to be downgraded to general community quarantine after May 15.

But Olivarez said they would be backing the extension of the ECQ if health authorities deem the situation in NCR to be of “still dangerous magnitude.”

Read more: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1271654/metro-mayors-to-discuss-ecq-extension-to-june-15#ixzz6LqEG9jUd
 

 

[scott h]

17 minutes ago, Jollygoodfellow said:

Metro mayors to discuss ECQ extension to June 15

They can but the folks will only put up with so much. Already small shops and businesses are operating like the speak easys during probation in the states when they out lawed booze. Just keeping their doors open a crack and customers pass money and goods through it.

Today I saw a police officer buying some stuff from a "closed" hardware store. I am seeing pop up vegetable vendors in the side streets, Everyone is wearing masks for the most part and keeping SD but are just paying lip service unless it suits them

[hk blues]

41 minutes ago, scott h said:

They can but the folks will only put up with so much. Already small shops and businesses are operating like the speak easys during probation in the states when they out lawed booze. Just keeping their doors open a crack and customers pass money and goods through it.

Today I saw a police officer buying some stuff from a "closed" hardware store. I am seeing pop up vegetable vendors in the side streets, Everyone is wearing masks for the most part and keeping SD but are just paying lip service unless it suits them

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, the scale is nothing like before.  Every government accepts that not everyone will follow the rules/laws but most do.  

[scott h]

5 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Every government accepts that not everyone will follow the rules/laws but most do.  

Reminds me of a quote ill never forget from Robert Heinlein's book "The moon is a harsh mistress". About Rational Anarchism.

  I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.

Almost defines the Filipino personality perfectly 

[Mike J]

50 minutes ago, scott h said:

They can but the folks will only put up with so much. Already small shops and businesses are operating like the speak easys during probation in the states when they out lawed booze. Just keeping their doors open a crack and customers pass money and goods through it.

Today I saw a police officer buying some stuff from a "closed" hardware store. I am seeing pop up vegetable vendors in the side streets, Everyone is wearing masks for the most part and keeping SD but are just paying lip service unless it suits them

I am seeing the same in Moalboal.  Last night I had to go out and I noticed quite a few small groups of people just socializing.  What really surprised me was that less than 1/2 of the people on the street were wearing masks.  There have been no reported cases in our area and I think that a lot of people have decided "we are okay here, the problem in only in the big cities".    

[Jack Peterson]

2 minutes ago, scott h said:

I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.

Yep Scott I am the same when I have had a few