Coronavirus Information Charts.

[OnMyWay]

11 hours ago, Jollygoodfellow said:

This true for every flu or virus that comes out every year. Im not downplaying the Corona but the bracket of people who more likely will not survive a virus is the same.

Yes, but actually Corona is BETTER than seasonal flu in one regard.  Very few children get sick with the Corona.  Seasonal flu impacts children a lot.  If Corona was a big risk for my kids I would be much more worried.

[Shady]

The DOH updates Philippines cases every day -

The problem is they don't specify cities.

 

[Jollygoodfellow]

13 hours ago, Shady said:

The problem is they don't specify cities.

Plenty of info out there in regards to cities with cases in the Philippines ?  You can put in which city you want in the tracker here, https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker

[peterfe]

On that page, you click on 'View detailed case information'. Then you get a table 'Cases and deaths by region and city'. So this morning I showed my gf that there were 1000 cases in Cebu City, 48 in Lapu-Lapu and only 20 in Cebu Province (where we are). I also said that the DOH figures are not fake news, unlike much of what you read on FB, etc. The other day she told me that Kim Jong-un had died and went into detail about how, and she's often come up with dubious figures about the number of cases around here 

[Tommy T.]

5 hours ago, Jollygoodfellow said:

Plenty of info out there in regards to cities with cases in the Philippines ?  You can put in which city you want in the tracker here, https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker

That is a very informative and professional set of charts and shows very clearly the situation here in Phils. Of course the testing may not really be accurate, but at least these are possibly indicators?

What I find most interesting is that the most cases seem to be among those 30-35 years old. Not many cases amongst us older duffers. Yet higher death rates among us vs. the youngsters...

I am heartened to see the very low rate of apparent infection here in Davao City and that no new cases are registered. Of course that may not be the truth, but...

Edited May 8, 2020 by Tommy T.

[hk blues]

4 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

I am heartened to see the very low rate of apparent infection here in Davao City and that no new cases are registered. Of course that may not be the truth, but...

It's a fair point you raise there,Tom - on one hand I have to say the numbers here are surprisingly (suspiciously) low but on the other hand it cannot be THAT much worse than we are led to believe.  

[Snowy79]

Just to put the cat amongst the pigeons are the figures actually that worrying for older people?  Sure say 10% of those aged above 65 who catch it die but in reality how many above the age of 65 catch the virus or get serious symptoms? You could have 5m people above the age of 65 and only 1,000 catch it and 100 die.  That's only 0.0001% fatality.  Pretty good odds if you ask me.

[Tommy T.]

17 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

You could have 5m people above the age of 65 and only 1,000 catch it and 100 die.  That's only 0.0001% fatality.  Pretty good odds if you ask me.

I agree with your thought, Snowy and do get your point...

But I guess I just would prefer not to be one of those 1,000 who catch it or the 100 who might die. As I see it... the greater the adherence to quarantine by EVERYONE and the more effectively we quarantine here (L and I) the more - by far - we reduce our fatality rate to even closer to zero.

And, sorry, but I don't like cats - allergic to them for the main reason...

[Mike J]

10 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

Just to put the cat amongst the pigeons are the figures actually that worrying for older people?  Sure say 10% of those aged above 65 who catch it die but in reality how many above the age of 65 catch the virus or get serious symptoms? You could have 5m people above the age of 65 and only 1,000 catch it and 100 die.  That's only 0.0001% fatality.  Pretty good odds if you ask me.

Instead of "you could have" let's use what limited numbers we have.   I am using USA numbers because I am a US citizen and have a senior brother and sister in the USA.

Todays chart (worldometers) for the USA shows 3984 cases per one million population.   A death rate of 26% for closed cases (i.e. dead or recovered).  And keep in mind that 3984 per million will continue to rise until the pandemic is over.    The rate of doubling has decreased (approximately 20 days now) with the quarantines in place, but they may increase as the states try to get their economies back on track.   I would not be surprised to see the case rate reach 8000 to 10000 cases per million in the US before this is over.  I admit this is just a guess and I have zero expertise and/or knowledge as an epidemiologist.  If it does reach 10K per million (infection rate of 1%) and the fatality rate improves a bit to say 25%.   There would be 330,000,000 x .01 x .25 = 825,000 deaths.   Even if people stopped getting the virus today, there are still over 1,000,000 active cases in the US.  At a fatality rate of 26% that would be 260,000 more deaths in addition to the 78K already dead and the majority of those are us "old folks".

You can still call those pretty good odds, after all it beats Russian Roulette, but those kind of number scare the crap out me.

@GeoffH - can you check my assumptions and math.  You are much more knowledgeable about this stuff than I am.

 

[GeoffH]

1 hour ago, Mike J said:

I@GeoffH - can you check my assumptions and math.  You are much more knowledgeable about this stuff than I am.

 

I can't see anything wrong with it but to be honest I'm only half awake right now... let me have coffee and I'll have a closer look after that .

 

OK... I am caffinated now :)

Cases will keep doubling (lets say every 20 days) until either herd immunity is aquired (via infection numbers or a vaccine) unless a real, widespread and effective lockdown is implemented (which I think is unlikely).

So if we start with 10 million cases (which allows for the stated 'real cases are 10 times higher than reported cases thing) and double that then in 20 days we've got 20 million, 40 days 40 million, 60 days 80 million, 80 days 160 million and at that point herd immunity will be starting to have an effect.  Lets say that in another 100 days at the current doubling rate herd immunity should have become a factor in the USA probably starting to really kick in at around 180,000,000 million cases.

Even if the real cases are only 1 million it doesn't change the end figure it only pushed the time frame out a bit, either way it won't get to 300,000,000 million cases because herd immunity will kick in before then.

 

Also I think that 26% is too high to be sustained, I susect it is a result of most minor and mild cases not being admitted to hospital and people just staying at home and recovering.  I suspect the real figure is likely between 0.5% and 5% (based upon figures from elsewhere in the world) but it's impossible to know exactly at this point.

Edited May 9, 2020 by GeoffH