Have we learnt anything these last few months?

[earthdome]

15 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

So I can't blame anyone for charging higher prices because they are taking a legal risk. And I can't blame the dobbers if they see something against regs and report and make profit.

Sorry Tommy, but I really have to take issue with this comment. The selling or buying of a few bottles of beer or alcohol doesn't hurt anyone and encouraging a snitch society for such trivial things is very far down the road towards tyranny.

On second thought, developing a snitch society did work very well for the East German Stasi.

Final Edit: I am fine with people charging more for items in demand what others might cause price gouging. This is just a signal in the market place that there are opportunities for more participants and competition for the market.

Edited May 20, 2020 by earthdome

[Tommy T.]

I agree with the critical posts here. Upon review, I should have said something like I can "understand" why there are dobbers here - many are poor, there are political scores to settle and family disputes and rivalries too. But that does not make it right.

So please let me correct my comments to say that I really do not condone snitches (I never have nor would do that myself). Mea culpa... I, myself, traveled in and through the communist east block back in the early 70's and experienced and witnessed the effects of that behaviour. People were scared of their own shadows...not a positive culture at all.

[OnMyWay]

 

On 5/17/2020 at 12:38 AM, OnMyWay said:

It has whacked me hard in many ways.

-- My retirement accounts are way down in value.  I don't need the money right now, but it will take a few years to come back, after the economy gets going.  If my accounts had continued to do well, that is money I could have used for my family.

-- I put my house in Florida up for sale before the crap hit the fan.  I really have no choice but to continue to try to sell it.  Losing about 2k a month on it plus my selling price will be down, I am sure.

--  It was planned that the kids would be out of school for a 4 month vacation this year, due to changing schools.  I planned to do 1 large and a few smaller trips.  That is all shot now.  If school goes as planned, we will not have April off for years, and that is when I wanted to visit Europe.  When this is all done, I may not be able to afford a big vacation.

-- I got screwed on the U.S. Stimulus payment.  I was looking foward $3400 and got nothing.

--  We are already debating on where/when/how to put the kids back in school.  It is all up in the air.  Some of my wife's friends are saying they are going to keep the kids out of school this year.

OK, I'm done.

I kept forgetting to add something to my whiny post above.  Medical.  A.  I should have been having hip replacement surgery in this timeframe.  Nothing in sight.  Even if my lockdown stops, I'm not sure I will jump right into a surgery while the virus lingers.  B.  Can't go to my skin doctor.  Have a couple of spots that need treatment.   C.  Can't go to my GP for some other health issues I am experiencing.  D.  Rest of family can't see a doc.

I was reminded when I saw this story.  You will not find this story on most of the mainstream U.S. media.  It doesn't fit their narrative.

https://disrn.com/news/mass-casualty-incident-600-doctors-sign-letter-to-President-calling-for-end-to-coronavirus-lockdowns

----------

More than 600 doctors signed and sent a letter to President Txxxx urging him to reopen the U.S. economy, calling the coronavirus lockdowns a "mass casualty incident" with "exponentially growing health consequences."

The letter warns that tens of millions of Americans are at immediate risk of serious health concerns or death directly caused by the shutdown due to issues such as missed preventative healthcare checkups, suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, homelessness, heart attacks, and strokes.

"We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients," the letter reads. "The downstream health effects of deteriorating a level are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error."

Full text of the letter:

Dear Mr. President:

Thousands of physicians in all specialties and from all States would like to express our gratitude for your leadership. We write to you today to express our alarm over the exponentially growing negative health consequences of the national shutdown.

In medical terms, the shutdown was a mass casualty incident.

During a mass casualty incident, victims are immediately triaged to black, red, yellow, or green. The first group, triage level black, includes those who require too many resources to save during a mass crisis. The red group has severe injuries that are survivable with treatment, the yellow group has serious injuries that are not immediately life threatening, and the green group has minor injuries.

The red group receives highest priority. The next priority is to ensure that the other two groups do not deteriorate a level. Decades of research have shown that by strictly following this algorithm, we save the maximum number of lives.

Millions of Americans are already at triage level red. These include 150,000 Americans per month who would have had a new cancer detected through routine screening that hasn't happened, millions who have missed routine dental care to fix problems strongly linked to heart disease/death, and preventable cases of stroke, heart attack, and child abuse. Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%.

Tens of millions are at triage level yellow. Liquor sales have increased 300-600%, cigarettes sales have increased, rent has gone unpaid, family relationships have become frayed, and millions of well-child check-ups have been missed.

Hundreds of millions are at triage level green. These are people who currently are solvent, but at risk should economic conditions worsen. Poverty and financial uncertainty is closely linked to poor health.

A continued shutdown means hundreds of millions of Americans will downgrade a level. The following are real examples from our practices.

Patient E.S. is a mother with two children whose office job was reduced to part-time and whose husband was furloughed. The father is drinking more, the mother is depressed and not managing her diabetes well, and the children are barely doing any schoolwork.

Patient A.F. has chronic but previously stable health conditions. Her elective hip replacement was delayed, which caused her to become nearly sedentary, resulting in a pulmonary embolism in April.

Patient R.T. is an elderly nursing home patient, who had a small stroke in early March but was expected to make a nearly complete recovery. Since the shutdown, he has had no physical or speech therapy, and no visitors. He has lost weight, and is deteriorating rather than making progress.

Patient S.O. is a college freshman who cannot return to normal life, school, and friendships. He risks depression, alcohol abuse, drug abuse, trauma, and future financial uncertainty.

We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients. The downstream health effects of deteriorating a level are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error.

It is impossible to overstate the short, medium, and long-term harm

to people's health with a continued shutdown. Losing a job is one of life's most stressful events, and the effect on a person's health is not lessened because it also has happened to 30 million other people. Keeping schools and universities closed is incalculably detrimental for children, teenagers, and young adults for decades to come.

The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight, but they will be called alcoholism, homelessness, suicide, heart attack, stroke, or kidney failure. In youths it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction, unplanned pregnancies, poverty, and abuse.

Because the harm is diffuse, there are those who hold that it does not exist. We, the undersigned, know otherwise.

Please let us know if we may be of assistance.

Edited May 21, 2020 by OnMyWay

[Tommy T.]

18 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

I kept forgetting to add something to my whiny post above.  Medical.  A.  I should have been having hip replacement surgery in this timeframe.  Nothing in sight.  Even if my lockdown stops, I'm not sure I will jump right into a surgery while the virus lingers.  B.  Can't go to my skin doctor.  Have a couple of spots that need treatment.   C.  Can't go to my GP for some other health issues I am experiencing.  D.  Rest of family can't see a doc.

I was reminded when I saw this story.  You will not find this story on most of the mainstream U.S. media.  It doesn't fit their narrative.

You have my sympathies, OMW. L and I each have a few medical issues we need to address. Fortunately, they don't come close to the seriousness of yours.

Your commentary is a bit interesting because you quote this letter from "600 doctors" yet the letter quotes "thousands of physicians?" Small point, I guess - maybe only 600 signed it? The letter details a number of specific situations along with the general terms regarding hundreds of millions of Americans. Well, there are about 320 million Americans these days so hundreds of millions, by definition would include about 2/3's the population and possibly 75% who have "minor injuries?" That's a helluva lot of sick or injured people out there...

You also go on to say that you are not so sure about checking in after things ease up because of the lingering virus. I don't see that as a fault of lockdown, but rather a fault or cause of the virus.

Please don't get me wrong, I am not trying to nit-pick your post, OMW. I am merely pointing out some things that bother me about the letter and maybe I simply have some misunderstandings about your concerns?

Right after reading your post (and I DO thank you for sharing your thoughts and that letter), I came across this article which, admittedly, refers to data derived from a model - which we know can be slightly to wildly inaccurate? If somewhat incorrect, I think the article still offers some  serious thoughts to consider? If it is really off the mark, it still made me think on it. It is way too long to include here so I just include a link if anyone is interested to read it. Please note that I am not touting this or a big supporter so much as interested in another viewpoint from that expressed by the doctors in the letter. Personally, I have no clue who is right in this debate...:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/lockdown-delays-cost-at-least-36000-lives-data-show/ar-BB14ohR4?li=BBnb7Kz

[OnMyWay]

56 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

You have my sympathies, OMW. L and I each have a few medical issues we need to address. Fortunately, they don't come close to the seriousness of yours.

Your commentary is a bit interesting because you quote this letter I did not make any commentary.  That is from the article in the link.  from "600 doctors" yet the letter quotes "thousands of physicians?" Small point, I guess - maybe only 600 signed it? The letter details a number of specific situations along with the general terms regarding hundreds of millions of Americans. Well, there are about 320 million Americans these days so hundreds of millions, by definition would include about 2/3's the population and possibly 75% who have "minor injuries?" That's a helluva lot of sick or injured people out there... I don't think that you are understanding the analogy with "Triage".  Quote "In medical terms, the shutdown was a mass casualty incident."    They are using the medical levels of Triage, Red, Yellow, Green, to categorize the different levels of harm due to lockdown.  For green level, it says "Hundreds of millions are at triage level green. These are people who currently are solvent, but at risk should economic conditions worsen. Poverty and financial uncertainty is closely linked to poor health."  It does not literally mean physical "minor injuries".

You also go on to say that you are not so sure about checking in after things ease up because of the lingering virus. I don't see that as a fault of lockdown, but rather a fault or cause of the virus.    I didn't say is was the fault of the lockdown.  Just a thought in my mind.  Meaning, I can continue to postpone until I think the coast is clear.  I don't mind walking around with a mask and avoiding possible COVID contact for quite a while after lockdown, but locking myself in a hospital for 2-3 days is another story.

Please don't get me wrong, I am not trying to nit-pick your post, OMW. I am merely pointing out some things that bother me about the letter and maybe I simply have some misunderstandings about your concerns?  

Right after reading your post (and I DO thank you for sharing your thoughts and that letter), I came across this article which, admittedly, refers to data derived from a model - which we know can be slightly to wildly inaccurate? If somewhat incorrect, I think the article still offers some  serious thoughts to consider? If it is really off the mark, it still made me think on it. It is way too long to include here so I just include a link if anyone is interested to read it. Please note that I am not touting this or a big supporter so much as interested in another viewpoint from that expressed by the doctors in the letter. Personally, I have no clue who is right in this debate...:

That article is from the front page of the NY Times.  They will only publish articles that match their narrative.  You won't find anything on the doctor's letter there.  If they did publish about the letter, at least readers could consider both views.  The bias of the NY Times is well known.  I think MSN is similar.

I don't know if the study is accurate but there are so many arguments that could be made to place blame one way or another.  NY state has almost 30% of the U.S. deaths.  I could argue that if they had handled everything better, U.S. deaths would be far lower.  Especially when you read about the blunders they made with the most vulnerable, seniors.  Not sure, but I doubt that the NY Times carries much news about that.

In any case, Monday morning quarterbacking is easy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/lockdown-delays-cost-at-least-36000-lives-data-show/ar-BB14ohR4?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[Jollygoodfellow]

5 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

Can't go to my GP for some other health issues I am experiencing.  D.  Rest of family can't see a doc.

Why?

5 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

More than 600 doctors signed and sent a letter to President Txxxx urging him to reopen the U.S. economy, calling the coronavirus lockdowns a "mass casualty incident" with "exponentially growing health consequences."

This is the Philippines. Why worry about what others do or dont. 

[OnMyWay]

5 minutes ago, Jollygoodfellow said:

Why?

This is the Philippines. Why worry about what others do or dont. 

Why I can't see the doctors?

As I have mentioned before, Subic Bay Freeport is a bit unique.   That is sometimes good, sometimes bad.  Most residents are banned from leaving the freeport unless it is for medical reasons.  If we want to leave for medical reasons, we first have to go to an office and get a medical pass to leave.  Then at the gate, we have to show the pass and give them our Freeport ID.  When coming back, you have to show something from the doc in order to get your ID back.  And then, you are put on 14 day house quarantine and become part of their PUI registry, I think.  Big hassle.

Now, we are on MECQ and our neighbor city, Olongapo, is on GCQ.  My GP is in Olongapo as well as my skin doctor.  My orthopedic doctor is in Clark, an even bigger hassle!

The only reason to worry about what the other places are doing is that many countries, like the Philippines, will follow what other countries do, if it works.  I really don't think the Philippines has any real plan.

[MikeB]

3 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

That article is from the front page of the NY Times.  They will only publish articles that match their narrative.

The article is based on a study by Columbia University scientists, partially funded by the National Institute of Health and the National Science Foundation. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v1.full.pdf

Edited May 21, 2020 by MikeB

[OnMyWay]

1 hour ago, MikeB said:

The article is based on a study by Columbia University scientists, partially funded by the National Institute of Health and the National Science Foundation. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v1.full.pdf

Yes, thanks for posting.  Reading the actual study confirms that the NY Times spun it.  The Times article goes right into "lock down" when the study never mentioned the term.  "Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6".  NPI is the key and the article does not specifically mention total lockdown as part of the measures.

This actually goes along with what many are saying should have the response and what might be a good response in the future.  You can't stop the world from turning every time a germ comes along.  As it is, we are going to be screwed for many years.

1.  Protect the most vulnerable, in this case the elderly.  The U.S. failed horribly.  Now it is estimated that up to 50% of the deaths are in nursing homes!  NY & NJ really f*cked it up.  You can read up on that if you don't know what I am talking about.

2.  Initiate social distancing and enforce it.  Allow business to stay open if they comply.

3.  Wear facemasks in public.

4.  Wash, wash, wash!

5.  Keep yourself healthy.  Don't smoke.  Keep your weight down.  The U.S. is so unhealthy it is no wonder they get hit hard.

You can do all of these things without throwing millions into poverty.  I was watching the news and they said 3,500 people lined up for a meal in NYC, before the venue opened.

 

[scott h]

3 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

The U.S. is so unhealthy it is no wonder they get hit hard.

Agree 110% and I have been saying this all along. IMHO one of the reasons the "developed" world has more deaths than nations with a lower medium age. 

Below is a portion of a memo by a Pennsylvania USA state official.

Of the 3,106 persons who have died, 11.9% had four comorbidities, 22.7% had three, 27.2% had two, 22.6% had one and 11% had zero.

 Statistical underlying conditions were broken down further: 61% had hypertension, 54% had heart disease, 37% had diabetes and 30% had chronic pulmonary disease.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/pennsylvania-covid-19-deaths-average-79-and-67-occurred-nursing-homes

Early on in this whole thing cnn reported on a family that lost 3 members to the virus. They made the mistake of showing a family photo of them. The family looked like the front line of the Denver Broncos.......but they were middle to old age, white and fat. 

The folks of the USA are finally paying for a generation of indulgence IMHO.