So much for the "Swedish way"!

[GeoffH]

12 hours ago, adrian canuck said:

Seasonal Flu - 350,000 to 525,000

C-19 - estimate 620,000

Where was all the uproar over something that comes back year after year ?

 

People aren't as a rule scared of influenza because there are vaccines available, sure there are vaccine deniers but flu vaccines have been around for ages and are well tolerated.  If people don't get a flu vaccine then that's on them.  There is an old saying "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink".

 

The important thing is providing the water (a vaccine), after that is widely available we can go for herd immunity and yes some vaccine deniers will choose not to vaccinate and risk getting the virus and that will be their choice so I'm ok with that.  At the moment opening up risks other people when they don't have a choice.

 

Also It's way too early to be able to do a realistic estimate of the eventual Covid-19 number of fatalities (and we're already at almost 400k!).

Edited June 10, 2020 by GeoffH

[Dave Hounddriver]

Deaths from the flu?

Quote

The fact is, no one knows how many people die after being infected with the flu virus. The death estimates are not based on body counts, lab tests or autopsies. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/flu-deaths-reality-check-1.1127442

[RBM]

21 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

I am not replying to any specific post here, just a few general comments...

I see the Spanish flu pandemic as sort of a guide to what could have happened with this latest scourge. It appears that some people have learned from this history and others have not? This latest virus kills some, attacks others with limited effect and spares vast numbers altogether...right? I am now all for those who wish to take the risk to go out, mingle with the contagious ones, get sick and die themselves or bring it on home to infect their friends and relatives who may be at greater risk... Go ahead and step right up. No sympathies from me - you make your own choice for yourself and those close to you... But my pities to those infected but not by their own choice.

As I have mentioned before, my thinking is that the lockdowns and quarantines have probably helped slow or control the spread of the virus. Look at New Zealand... I think these were necessary to enact to protect those too dumb to quarantine or wear masks or take other precautions on their own... Now that there is a bit more knowledge and current history about this virus, many, if not most, at risk people seem to be taking precautions. I have seen videos and read accounts from some younger people who got very sick and listened to their cautionary tales addressed to their peers. Before they were sick, many, too, were cavalier about it. But once sick with this, they figured it out.

When shopping at Wilcon and Citi Hardware recently, I would say about one third of people were wearing masks not covering their noses, wearing masks down below their chin or simply not wearing them at all. I was disgusted when one employee at Citi walked behind L and I snorting and blowing his nose into a rag then wiping his nose afterward with his hand and sleeve, then leaving his mask down... Some people just don't get it. Oh... and a big sign at the entrance to Citi stated, among other cautions, that only 20 customers were permitted inside at a time. Hahahaha! There were more than that just shuffling along in the check-out line! A few dozen more wandering around the store. We had more than 5 people all crowding around us as they checked some lights for us. L and I simply walked away and made a bit of a subtle show about it. The others noticed and then spread out. They knew better but either forgot or didn't really care... Oh, well.

Personally, I had what was known as the London Grippe (some sort of nasty flu) back in the early 70's while travelling in Europe. I thought I was going to die - it was horrible. I had another really nasty case of flu about 30 years ago. It knocked me flat on my back for weeks. I developed pneumonia and it took the better part of a month for everything to clear up. I never want to get even close to that sick again. I was helpless, listless, coughing, aching, feverish, not sleeping, difficult breathing...

There is, indeed, a lot of media coverage annually about various flu outbreaks - contrary to what some members seem to think? I believe, however, that there is less hype about it because it has become rather routine - oh well, another 50,000 people died from flu last month?...no big deal.

So I get a flu shot every year and have done so ever since that last bout 30 years past. My feeling is, why take the risk if it can be diverted? And I will get any vaccine offered for this latest virus and/or continue to self-protect myself, my girl and my step-daughter.

Okay... that's my morning virus rant. Sure... I know many will think I overreact and am totally wrong? But, I feel better now.

Nice read Tommy. Its quite difficult for me to even try an take the testing results seriously. here its just a fraction of the total population,my guess, the most convenient places have been tested. Imagine in Cebu the number of hard to access shanties where my guess is  little to no testing has been done.

Plus the country to country testing comparisons. Its hard to compare a first world country testing to a third world country....With the better health facilities, plus   awareness one must expect a better outcome.

Doctor Bracewell said Africa was his biggest concern, mine would be how little we know about it. 

[hk blues]

19 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

Countless?  Where can you find those stats?

Read the obituary columns in a newspaper.  

Anyone who thinks Covid-19 only kills the old and the sick is wrong.  

[OnMyWay]

3 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Read the obituary columns in a newspaper.  

Anyone who thinks Covid-19 only kills the old and the sick is wrong.  

You want me to read the obituary columns in a newspaper to back up your statement?

"Anyone who thinks Covid-19 only kills the old and the sick is wrong."

Nobody said only, but it is a fact that younger people have a very low risk of dying.  There are many statistics to back that up.  I posted this one above.

Under 65-year-old (0.09% CMR to date)

85.9% of the population (7,214,525 people out of 8,398,748) in New York City is under 65 years old according to the US Census Bureau, which indicates the percent of persons 65 years old and over in New York City as being 14.1% [source].

We don't know what percentage of the population in this age group has an underlying condition, so at this time we are not able to accurately estimate the fatality rate for the under 65 years old and healthy.

But we can calculate it for the entire population under 65 years old (both healthy and unhealthy): with 6,188 deaths (26% of the total deaths in all age groups) occurring in this age group, of which 5,498 deaths (89%) in patients with a known underlying condition, the crude mortality rate to date will correspond to 6,188 / 7,214,525 = 0.09% CMR, or 86 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths per 100,000 for the general population).

So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.

[hk blues]

3 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

You want me to read the obituary columns in a newspaper to back up your statement?

"Anyone who thinks Covid-19 only kills the old and the sick is wrong."

 

If you want data then you can search it yourself if that's your thing.

Covid-19 has killed countless people who are neither old or sick.  I'm sticking to that assertion.

[OnMyWay]

2 minutes ago, hk blues said:

If you want data then you can search it yourself if that's your thing.

Covid-19 has killed countless people who are neither old or sick.  I'm sticking to that assertion.

OK, then.  I guess they are countless.

[hk blues]

7 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

OK, then.  I guess they are countless.

Sorry If I seem abrupt but I do get irritated when people say lockdowns are a waste of time and anyone who is not old or sick is safe.  It's just not true. Even if only 1% of those who have died weren't in the old/sick category that would amount to 4,000 people - not a small number in my book. 

[GeoffH]

3 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.

 

That's true of New York (as far as the data is known at this point in time) but it's probably better to use a wider sample group.  The chart below breaks down the CFR by age for several countries (NB there were too few Italian ICU beds and their was overwhelmed for a period which might go some way to explaining it's higher figures - I would expect lower figures where that wasn't the case and higher figures in third world countries with low number of ICU beds).

The way I'd read the chart below is that the risk for young people (up to 30) is low but not zero, the risk for middle aged people (30 to 60) is substantial and the risk for senior citizens (over 60) is very high (and is extreme at 80+ years).

 

 





 

[OnMyWay]

2 hours ago, GeoffH said:

The way I'd read the chart below is that the risk for young people (up to 30) is low but not zero, the risk for middle aged people (30 to 60) is substantial and the risk for senior citizens (over 60) is very high (and is extreme at 80+ years).

If the worst CFR there is Italy, consider this.  Italy 30-59 = 1.7%.

CFR is Confirmed Covid deaths / Confirmed Covid Cases

We have been through this before.  CFR does not include all the people who are asymptomatic or get it mild / med and just stay at home like they have a cold or flu.  There are a wide range of estimates on how many Covid cases are not diagnosed, usually ranging from 60-90%.  Let's call it 75%

Using 1.7% CFR, there are 1700 deaths from 100,000 confirmed cases

100,000 confirmed cases = 25% of total cases.  Total cases = 100,000 / .25 = 400,000

1700 / 400,000 = .425 % chance of dying, IF you get it in age group 30-59. 

If you don't get it at all, you are not even included in that calculation.  So if you come up with a calculation to included the entire population of 30-59, that % falls even more.  A lot more.  That would be a better estimate of risk of dying of Covid for a 30-59 year old.