So much for the "Swedish way"!

[Tommy T.]

But older than 60+, you are still as good as dead...or am I missing something - as usual?

[OnMyWay]

22 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

But older than 60+, you are still as good as dead...or am I missing something - as usual?

If you are talking about deaths by age, I guess you are missing something.  Those are just the breakdown by age of the deaths.

If you are age 60+ and get Covid, you have X % chance of dying.  I don't know what that is, but it certainly does not equate to "good as dead".  Wild guess example, if age 60+, perhaps your chance of dying if you get it is 15%.  85% live, 15% die.  Comorbiditys are a big factor.

Side note, in the U.S., they just added obesity (over 30 BMI) to the list of high risk comorbiditys. 

[Tommy T.]

1 hour ago, OnMyWay said:

If you are talking about deaths by age, I guess you are missing something.  Those are just the breakdown by age of the deaths.

If you are age 60+ and get Covid, you have X % chance of dying.  I don't know what that is, but it certainly does not equate to "good as dead".  Wild guess example, if age 60+, perhaps your chance of dying if you get it is 15%.  85% live, 15% die.  Comorbiditys are a big factor.

Side note, in the U.S., they just added obesity (over 30 BMI) to the list of high risk comorbiditys. 

Well, OMW. I think you are probably right... I guess I can relax a bit... I am not obese, do not have any comorbidity that I am aware of.... I guess I just remember the last time I had the (today considered average and not too lethal or nasty) flu. Then, I thought I was going to die. The feeling was not good. I never want to feel that way again... I grew up with very bad asthma as a kid and the feeling of being short of breath is truly horrible. So... for those fortunate to have never experienced that... more power to you.... I really prefer to not die that way...

However, I still would prefer to die at 90+ years with a smile on my face and not with a ventilator shoved in my mouth while I am comatose...

Edited June 27, 2020 by Tommy T.

[hk blues]

50 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

However, I still would prefer to die at 90+ years with a smile on my face and not with a ventilator shoved in my mouth while I am comatose...

I try to be pragmatic and realistic about this - as far as I can see none of the horrendous predictions about infections and deaths have come true as yet - likely a combination of doing the right things and the worst-case scenario thinking that was in place.

After 3+ months in most places we might expect that 6-10% of the US population have been infected, less than 1% have been confirmed and 0.05 have passed away. 

If I were a betting man I'd be betting on seeing you with that big happy smile on your deathbed at 90, Tom.

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, hk blues said:

I try to be pragmatic and realistic about this - as far as I can see none of the horrendous predictions about infections and deaths have come true as yet - likely a combination of doing the right things and the worst-case scenario thinking that was in place.

I said way back near the start of this that I thought it would be at least as bad as the 1968-69 Hond Kong flu which killed between (depending upon whos' estimates) 1 million and 4 million people.  I've seen nothing yet that suggests that the numbers won't match that pandemic.

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by GeoffH

[hk blues]

42 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

I said way back near the start of this that I thought it would be at least as bad as the 1968-69 Hond Kong flu which killed between (depending upon whos' estimates) 1 million and 4 million people.  I've seen nothing yet that suggests that the numbers won't match that pandemic.

 

Well Geoff, first of all that's a fairly big margin of error - 400%! Second of all, do you have any estimate of the predictions about total deaths from Covid-19? Otherwise, we're looking at absolute numbers in complete isolation.

Setting that aside, if we just take the UK as an example - estimated deaths were in the 400,000 range. They're sitting at around 10% of that. Assuming, and I think we can, that much of the highest risk group have already been infected, i would seriously doubt the number will come close to 400,000.

I would not be surprised if the virus 'settles down' to about the same impact as seasonal flu.

That's not to say we can kick back and relax - we would then be facing 2 potentially deadly common illnesses which is a huge concern given we've failed to eradicate seasonal flu thus far.

[carbpow]

54 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

I said way back near the start of this that I thought it would be at least as bad as the 1968-69 Hond Kong flu which killed between (depending upon whos' estimates) 1 million and 4 million people.  I've seen nothing yet that suggests that the numbers won't match that pandemic.

 

It's not just the deaths that is scary about this disease. Just because one survives doesn't necessarily mean one is recovered.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/25/physiotherapist-seeing-impact-covid-survivors-haunt-forever

[GeoffH]

17 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Well Geoff, first of all that's a fairly big margin of error - 400%! Second of all, do you have any estimate of the predictions about total deaths from Covid-19? Otherwise, we're looking at absolute numbers in complete isolation.

Setting that aside, if we just take the UK as an example - estimated deaths were in the 400,000 range. They're sitting at around 10% of that. Assuming, and I think we can, that much of the highest risk group have already been infected, i would seriously doubt the number will come close to 400,000.

I would not be surprised if the virus 'settles down' to about the same impact as seasonal flu.

That's not to say we can kick back and relax - we would then be facing 2 potentially deadly common illnesses which is a huge concern given we've failed to eradicate seasonal flu thus far.

The margin of error in numbers of death for pandemics seem to run around 400% *shrug*, Spanish Flu has similar variations in quoted deaths.  At the lower end you've got 'confirmed deaths by the disease' and at the uppper end you've got 'estimates of increase in monthly deaths assumed to be caused by the disease'.

As to the UK I don't think they'll go that high either and as I said back nearer the start of the pandemic (and I'm paraphrasing myself) "the real issue isn't modern western countries, the problem is going to be third world countries with poor health systems".  As to the specific number '400k' for the UK you'd have to talk to the people that suggested it, I never did.

re settling down, sure... eventually... Hong Kong flu is now one of the seasonal varieties of flu that are vaccinated against.  It took years though (and killed at least a million people during that process).

Honestly I wouldn't try and put a number on the eventual result but given that world wide deaths are already about half a million I still don't think my ball park guess of 'at least as bad as Hong Kong flu - which was and is my position' is unreasonable.  Come back in a couple of months and we can revisit the numbers but I'll be surprised if deaths don't pass 1 million.

Now whether you think that justifies lock downs or not is a personal opinion not scientific fact, me I think it does but I admit I might be biased because I'm in a vulnerable demographic for this disease (and conversely healthier people are going to be biased the other way).

Edited June 27, 2020 by GeoffH

[GeoffH]

9 minutes ago, carbpow said:

It's not just the deaths that is scary about this disease. Just because one survives doesn't necessarily mean one is recovered.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/25/physiotherapist-seeing-impact-covid-survivors-haunt-forever

 

Yes there is increasing evidence that some people are seeing extended injury :(

[Joey G]

Every action has consequences...  .

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/lockdowns-may-be-driving-another-virus-wave-dengue-fever/ar-BB15JFYT