So much for the "Swedish way"!

[OnMyWay]

9 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

Well, OMW. I think you are probably right... I guess I can relax a bit... I am not obese, do not have any comorbidity that I am aware of.... I guess I just remember the last time I had the (today considered average and not too lethal or nasty) flu. Then, I thought I was going to die. The feeling was not good. I never want to feel that way again... I grew up with very bad asthma as a kid and the feeling of being short of breath is truly horrible. So... for those fortunate to have never experienced that... more power to you.... I really prefer to not die that way...

However, I still would prefer to die at 90+ years with a smile on my face and not with a ventilator shoved in my mouth while I am comatose...

I have had a few bad flus over the years but never thought I was going to die.  A year or two ago I had a really bad one and my head and body throbbed terribly for 2-3 days, along with the other symptoms of bad coughing, runny nose, etc.  And then I had mild asthma afterwards for a week.  However, I have had similar before, so I knew I was not going to die.  Lots of liquids, etc.

My childhood asthma and now adult asthma has never been that bad, but I can imagine what that feeling would be like.

I'm sure you are protecting yourself and that is just the way it has to be for a while.  However, if you are protecting yourself, I don't see the benefit of living in fear.  We all die sooner or later but we don't get to pick when and / where we die.  Protecting yourself from Covid will certainly help you win that fight.

I'm reminded of our former member here, Chris Arrowsmith.   I think this was before your time here.  He's gone now but one of his cycling buddies posted a memory of him on FB today.  He died doing what he loved, 3+ years ago.  Out cycling on a beautiful day one minute, gone the next, hit by a truck.  You never know when it is your time so enjoy while you can!

[RBM]

From what I understand while infections rates may be increasing death rates are not, in fact decreasing.

This virus appears to effect the low hanging fruits........

 

[Snowy79]

1 hour ago, RBM said:

From what I understand while infections rates may be increasing death rates are not, in fact decreasing.

This virus appears to effect the low hanging fruits........

 

Pretty much my take on things, however hopefully by slowing the transmission down it will hopefully give some time to change their lifestyles and give them a better chance of survival.

I've been very much an advocate for people's lifestyles chosing their main cause of death.  We can spend a fortune looking for a vaccine which may or not be found then just as much again trying to force people to take it or we could say over night outlaw smoking. I'm pretty certain the damage caused to the economy already from Covid could be worth 20yrs of income from the tobbaco industry and within a year many hundreds of thousands of lives would be saved and within 5 to 10 yrs millions.  Similar results could be had by banning unhealthy foods. 

I wish a country from day one had implimented quarantine plus health changes then use that as a reference point for the future. In a country like Sweden if health changes were forced even with a 10% reduction in deaths would see approx 9,000 lives saved. So far 5,280 have died of Covid.  How many of then could have survived if healthier?

On a personal note since Covid I've not drunk alcohol, cook my own food from fresh ingredients and exercise more. I'd guess I'm a lot healthier now and certainly feel it, a few friends are in a similar position.

 

[Mike J]

22 hours ago, RBM said:

From what I understand while infections rates may be increasing death rates are not, in fact decreasing.

This virus appears to effect the low hanging fruits........

 

Still decreasing in the US, although the downward trend is beginning to flatten.  Hopefully it will not trend back up.  Daily deaths for the world were decreasing but begin to increase in late May.

Source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/

[GeoffH]

22 minutes ago, Mike J said:

Still decreasing in the US, although the downward trend is beginning to flatten.  Hopefully it will not trend back up.  Daily deaths for the world were decreasing but begin to increase in late May.

What is happening is that the traditional waves of infection that were counted during pandemics in the past are being swamped by the fast travel and faster information available in modern society. 

A wave starts in an area (and exhibits the classical wave shape in isolation - like China or Australia) but then another wave in another area develops and is at a different point.  Now when you overlay those two on a graph it's simple you see two peaks (of different heights).  But when you add another 10 or 20 peaks to the graph your graph loses that tradiational wave shape and becomes a bit of a mess.

But if all of the 'area waves' that you add to the graph start at a similar time then you get a 'super wave', that's what happens when you look at the graph of infections in an area like Europe the wave is flattened and spread out but still wave like.

(I'm getting there I promise)

So you have these continental/multi country/area waves and then you plot them together and you get the mess that is the world graph.

The original small wave on the world graph was China but that was overshadowed by a much larger european wave which started to decline but now that's been swamped by the increase in cases from the USA, Brazil etc so we're not seeing a wave on the world graph so much as a series of increasingly larger upwards steps.

I'm not sure I did a good job of explaining that... did I mention I make a sucky teacher 

[Mike J]

3 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

What is happening is that the traditional waves of infection that were counted during pandemics in the past are being swamped by the fast travel and faster information available in modern society. 

A wave starts in an area (and exhibits the classical wave shape in isolation - like China or Australia) but then another wave in another area develops and is at a different point.  Now when you overlay those two on a graph it's simple you see two peaks (of different heights).  But when you add another 10 or 20 peaks to the graph your graph loses that tradiational wave shape and becomes a bit of a mess.

But if all of the 'area waves' that you add to the graph start at a similar time then you get a 'super wave', that's what happens when you look at the graph of infections in an area like Europe the wave is flattened and spread out but still wave like.

(I'm getting there I promise)

So you have these continental/multi country/area waves and then you plot them together and you get the mess that is the world graph.

The original small wave on the world graph was China but that was overshadowed by a much larger european wave which started to decline but now that's been swamped by the increase in cases from the USA, Brazil etc so we're not seeing a wave on the world graph so much as a series of increasingly larger upwards steps.

I'm not sure I did a good job of explaining that... did I mention I make a sucky teacher 

I noticed when looking at the graphs for the USA, that the "spikes" occurred at seven day intervals.  The two "short" days being the weekend, the "tall" days being Monday and Tuesday.  I assume that weekend deaths are often not reported until Monday or Tuesday when staff catches up on paperwork?  That is why I always check the seven day moving average to see where the trend is going.  The world graph displays these same "weekly" spikes.  I tend to think that the increase as the virus spreads to new countries is dampened out as the virus comes under some measure of control in previous countries.  So I can see your point about there being a "super wave" but I tend to believe the spikes are slow reporting as opposed to actual waves?  

[GeoffH]

6 minutes ago, Mike J said:

So I can see your point about there being a "super wave" but I tend to believe the spikes are slow reporting as opposed to actual waves?  

I'm sure the reporting spike effect is real also and probably also many other effects we haven't mentioned.

I was more trying to make the point that we shouldn't expect a nice clean 'wave' look to the graphs with this 'modern pandemic'.

[intrepid]

On 6/13/2020 at 10:54 AM, OnMyWay said:

I left out a word.  "Daily".  Daily deaths are trending down.  Total deaths can never go down.  The article referred to daily cases going up.

Total daily cases = up.  Daily testing = up.  Daily deaths = down

This is the global daily deaths.  Still in a down trend, but the last weeks are flattish, probably due to S. America and a few other countries.

The is the U.S. Daily deaths.  

Outcomes of closed cases are also getting better.  Treatments are improving.  Very encouraging but of course not included in the MSN / Washington Post article.

 

 I have been watching this chart for a while that someone posted a early on.  There are many columns of stats which most here have discussed and find meaningless to which I agree.  However, the one stat I am drawn to is near to the right, "Deaths/ 1M Population".  Forget the testing and how many.  Total cases, Recovered, serious, active, ect. ect.  In the end I feel the Deaths/ 1M Population  is what counts.  Also being aware of the times there have been manipulation of the cause of death, I don’t think that factor is so large to change the overall picture.  Anyway, looking down that column starting with the USA is high at 388.  UK and Spain at over 600.  Belgium 840!  Then you have others all over the place and you come to the Philippines at 11?  Yes 11 deaths per 1M Population.  So I would like to believe this stat but it still begs the question, Is this stat being manipulated?

[OnMyWay]

5 minutes ago, intrepid said:

 I have been watching this chart for a while that someone posted a early on.  There are many columns of stats which most here have discussed and find meaningless to which I agree.  However, the one stat I am drawn to is near to the right, "Deaths/ 1M Population".  Forget the testing and how many.  Total cases, Recovered, serious, active, ect. ect.  In the end I feel the Deaths/ 1M Population  is what counts.  Also being aware of the times there have been manipulation of the cause of death, I don’t think that factor is so large to change the overall picture.  Anyway, looking down that column starting with the USA is high at 388.  UK and Spain at over 600.  Belgium 840!  Then you have others all over the place and you come to the Philippines at 11?  Yes 11 deaths per 1M Population.  So I would like to believe this stat but it still begs the question, Is this stat being manipulated?

I think the U.S. deaths / Mil Pop has been slowly falling.  I think it was close to 500 at one point.

Yes, the Philippines number is puzzling, but I hope it is true.  NCR continues to be the source of the majority of cases and deaths.  There are millions of people living in other areas that don't have much, if any.

[intrepid]

2 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

I think the U.S. deaths / Mil Pop has been slowly falling.  I think it was close to 500 at one point.

Yes, the Philippines number is puzzling, but I hope it is true.  NCR continues to be the source of the majority of cases and deaths.  There are millions of people living in other areas that don't have much, if any.

The world average is 64.5 per 1M pop.  Am I missing something here, how can that stat go down?  I can understand the deaths can go down.  But Unless there is a huge increase in population overnight it would seem to me that the stat of "Deaths/ 1M Population" can only ever go up.  I never took a course while in college on Stats so my understanding is limited.