So much for the "Swedish way"!

[OnMyWay]

2 hours ago, RBM said:

The strong lock down and results obtained in NZ would indicate it was a good approach.

Quite possibly it was an excellent approach, for New Zealand.  They have unique circumstances, especially being an island nation.  Even before COVID, they have very tight controls on what can come into the country.  They are very disciplined.

[Mike J]

45 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

There is strong political motivation to list deaths as 'with Covid-19' instead of 'from Covid-19', I strongly suspect that whilst any financial motivations to fudge the numbers upwards are more than countered by the political motivation to fudge them downwards.

Future of the "number".

About seven weeks ago (April 4th) a well known high placed political figure was quoted as saying that corona deaths would be "substantially lower than 100K".  That number has now been reached, or maybe not depending on your definition of corona deaths.  I predict the number will be adjusted as required to maintain the 100K figure or perhaps even lower it by a substantial amount.   The 1.7 million corona cases and climbing may be a bit more difficult to spin.

[OnMyWay]

50 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

Social support systems exist (except notably for the USA) in first world countries fully capable of handling a lockdown of a few months in duration and using the lack of such social support systems to justify coming out of lockdown early (rather than some introspection about why on earth the country with the worlds largest GDP doesn't have them) is... disingenuous.

Now you are getting into the macro politics of one country vs. another, so I will not go there.

[OnMyWay]

45 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

Using that figure the purely economic cost of the 100,000 additional USA deaths would be 100,000 million dollars (yes that's an oversimplification),

You are falling back on the argument that these are additional deaths.  Everyone dies.  These are mostly old people and so their deaths might be "sooner".  And the economic cost of the death of  productive worker vs. a retiree is not the same.  Yes, cold blooded approach again.  Sorry.  Just looking at numbers.

[GeoffH]

12 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

You are falling back on the argument that these are additional deaths.  Everyone dies.  These are mostly old people and so their deaths might be "sooner".  And the economic cost of the death of  productive worker vs. a retiree is not the same.  Yes, cold blooded approach again.  Sorry.  Just looking at numbers.

The very definition of an 'additional death' IS an early death, there is no other sort of death because no one is immortal so all deaths are 'sooner', only the amount varies.

The calculation cost of a 'productive worker' versus a 'retiree' is not as simple as you might first assume, wealth is very much concentrated in the hands of retirees and older people and that wealth generates income and creates jobs.  A young person flipping burgers is much less 'productive' (from an purely cold blooded approach) than someone our age with money invested from a life time of work.

Sorry... just looking at the numbers 

Edited May 28, 2020 by GeoffH

[OnMyWay]

12 minutes ago, Mike J said:

Future of the "number".

About seven weeks ago (April 4th) a well known high placed political figure was quoted as saying that corona deaths would be "substantially lower than 100K".  That number has now been reached, or maybe not depending on your definition of corona deaths.  I predict the number will be adjusted as required to maintain the 100K figure or perhaps even lower it by a substantial amount.   The 1.7 million corona cases and climbing may be a bit more difficult to spin.

I don't dispute your first statement, but I disagree that the numbers will be suppressed.  Possibly some errors in reporting deaths, that we have discussed, will be fixed.  The fact is, the media will try their best to pump up the death numbers leading into the fall elections.

And I will bring up the elephant in the room.  Most media, and many U.S. citizens, hope that everything goes against the "well known high placed political figure", at any cost.  They don't care about the deaths  They just want him out and this is their opportunity.  You commented a few weeks ago that "they wouldn't really do that, would they?" or something like that.  I know for a fact that many would think that but of course they don't want to say it out loud.  Several members of my family are in that group and other celebrities / politicians have indicated as much.

[OnMyWay]

1 minute ago, GeoffH said:

The very definition of an 'additional death' IS an early death, there is no other sort of death because no one is immortal so all deaths are 'sooner', only the amount varies.

The calculation cost of a 'productive worker' versus a 'retiree' is not as simple as you might first assume, wealth is very much concentrated in the hands of retirees and older people and that wealth generates income and creates jobs.  A young person flipping burgers is much less 'productive' (from an purely cold blooded approach) than someone our age with money invested from a life time of work.

Sorry... just looking at the numbers 

Yes, agree, so what happens to that wealth when they die?

[GeoffH]

6 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

Yes, agree, so what happens to that wealth when they die?

It gets locked up in the courts and inheritence system for a while (whilst the wheels grind away) then it gets distributed (most times) to late middle age children which bumps their wealth up before they become 'old'.  Nothing there (most times) for the grand kids or great grand kids (who will still be flipping burgers).  Still not seeing how a 'young burger flipper is more productive' (although perhaps I should have lumped middle aged in with older).

Edited May 28, 2020 by GeoffH

[Heeb]

Almost 50% of the deaths have been in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, in some states it's over 60%, if I remember correctly the first cases in Washington state were nursing homes which to me means the virus was already in the general public first, we should have been concentrating our efforts into protecting these people. My brother is staying at my home in the states with my 82 year old mother who has CPOD, he has food delivered and if he has to go out he quarantines himself from her and has turned off the HVAC and uses space heaters when cold.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Heeb

[OnMyWay]

5 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

It gets locked up in the courts and inheritence system for a while (whilst the wheels grind away) then it gets distributed (most times) to late middle age children which bumps their wealth up before they become 'old'.  Nothing there (most times) for the grand kids or great grand kids (who will still be flipping burgers).  Still not seeing how a 'young burger flipper is more productive' (although perhaps I should have lumped middle aged in with older).

I never mentioned burger flippers.  There are many different levels of workers who have lost their jobs.  Some low paying, some high paying.

I can't speak about other countries, but in the U.S., it is the small business owners who are getting killed.  Many types of small businesses are getting snuffed out by Walmart, etc., who were allowed to stay open.