So much for the "Swedish way"!

[GeoffH]

Widespread testing (in countries that are doing community testing) suggests that even countries with large numbers of cases are likely only at around the 10% exposure level (way short of that required for herd immunity).  We're really only just getting started.

Edited May 29, 2020 by GeoffH

[Mike J]

18 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

I still have a theory that many Filipinos, and possibly many of the lower class, have already had the virus.  I don't know if we will ever know.

 

17 hours ago, hk blues said:

I'll second that but I'd swap Filipinos for all nationalities.   

If that were the case, wouldn't that be shown via antibody testing? 

[RBM]

22 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

Our relatives there are reporting close to normal.  Practicing social distancing, I think they said masks are optional.

Yes that is true how ever i would regard Kiwis as being particularly disciplined. Unlike say Danish German Swiss and such. NZ went in hard and fast and people were held accountable unlike here in most cases.

Not wanting to hold it up as a role model it has proven that their actions did pay off.  

How ever if ever this virus was to return, bit like the Spanish Flu, this would be a true test and the Swedish way may in fact prove they have some sort of immunity. Lets pray this does not happen, Doc Campbell sadly reports there is a distinct possibility though.

[OnMyWay]

3 hours ago, Mike J said:

 

If that were the case, wouldn't that be shown via antibody testing? 

For most Filipinos, especially poor Filipinos, I doubt that testing will be very deep.

Here in Subic they went all out to put up a testing facility and lab, in partnership with the Red Cross.  That was at least a month ago and I don't think it has been used yet.  Last I heard was that it was waiting for DOH approval.

[Heeb]

3 hours ago, Mike J said:

 

If that were the case, wouldn't that be shown via antibody testing? 

From what I understand they have been doing mostly quick tests with swabs, i might be wrong though, i think you have to have a blood sample for the antibody test. My Filipino friend was tested in California after he got out before lockdown here and he tested positive for antibodies, he is close to my age and remembers having a cough and slight breathing problems that he thought was anxiety. I remember shooting pool with him out in Barrio Baretto and me complaining about pink eye and trying to shake off a nasty cough. We had a cruise ship loaded with Chinese tourists all over the freeport mall and shops back in early January, there are no cases currently here locally I believe.

[Mike J]

43 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

For most Filipinos, especially poor Filipinos, I doubt that testing will be very deep.

Here in Subic they went all out to put up a testing facility and lab, in partnership with the Red Cross.  That was at least a month ago and I don't think it has been used yet.  Last I heard was that it was waiting for DOH approval.

Found this article.  Looks like they are close to getting ready.  Maybe it was just the building that was finished a month ago?

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1103103

MANILA – The Philippine Red Cross is set to open a biomolecular laboratory at its logistics and training center located inside the Subic Bay Freeport Zone to prevent the further spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in Zambales and its neighboring provinces.

Senator Richard Gordon, PRC chairman and CEO, said the laboratory, which has already been completed and awaiting the conduct of proficiency testing by the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine for accreditation, was built with the support of donors and the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority or SBMA.

“Our aim is to ensure victory over the virus. We have to unmask the unseen enemy so we could isolate and treat those who are infected and prevent the further spread of the disease. That’s why we are setting up several laboratories across the country,” he said.

Gordon said once the facility becomes operational, health workers from the SBMA, headed by lawyer Amy Eisma, will conduct the swabbing and encoding at the SBF’s Main Gate while the actual testing of the specimens will be done in the PRC laboratory.

The PRC, which has the distinction of being the only Red Cross national society with a biomolecular laboratory system, already opened two testing centers that are both equipped with polymerase chain reaction machines that can run up to a combined total of 8,000 tests a day. They are also equipped with automated RNA extraction machines.

Last Friday, the Department of Health also accredited PRC’s third testing center in Port Area, Manila. Like the first two, the Manila laboratory is also equipped with four PCR machines that are also capable of processing up to a total of 4,000 tests a day.

Gordon said the soon to be opened facility in Subic is also equipped with an automated RNA extraction machine and two PCR machines, which can complete up to a total of 2,000 tests combined.

“There is a need to conduct testing para makita natin ang kalaban. Gaya niyan, mayroon nang 16 confirmed cases sa Zambales, 11 sa Olongapo at 110 sa Bataan ngayong buwan. Kailangan malaman natin kung nasaan ang kalaban para hindi na dumami ang bilang ng mga mahahawaan (to find our enemy. This month, Zambales has already 16 confirmed cases, 11 in Olongapo, and 110 in Bataan. We have to know where is the enemy so that we can contain the spread of the virus). And with the SBMA supporting our cause, we are sure to achieve this goal,” he said.

[OnMyWay]

13 minutes ago, Mike J said:

Found this article.  Looks like they are close to getting ready.  Maybe it was just the building that was finished a month ago?

Yes, that is what I said.  A few weeks ago, about the time of the article you posted, our chairman posted photos of the lab and it appeared to be ready.  You would think DOH would put some priority on opening it.  However, another issue may be staffing it.  They posted a bunch of job openings for staff.

[Snowy79]

Judging by the way Oriental Mindoro are getting results the tests are about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.  They carried out rapid testing on over 600 front liners finding 23 positives, all of which came back negative on the second test followed up two weeks later, double confirmed on a third test.  If there's false positives how accurate are the negatives? 

[Mike J]

1 hour ago, Snowy79 said:

Judging by the way Oriental Mindoro are getting results the tests are about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.  They carried out rapid testing on over 600 front liners finding 23 positives, all of which came back negative on the second test followed up two weeks later, double confirmed on a third test.  If there's false positives how accurate are the negatives? 

I think your post shows the importance of posting "source".  It is shown below.  I have high information in red that explains the "why" of rapid testing, and the requirements for second test.  In my opinion you have shown a strong bias in your post.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1271488/no-covid-19-patient-in-puerto-galera-says-oriental-mindoro-gov

CITY OF CALAPAN –– There is no coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient in Puerto Galera now, clarified Oriental Mindoro Governor Humerlito Dolor, in a post on Thursday on his Facebook page.

“Aside from Patient 44 who became positive on April 7, and after two negative results in his second and third tests, he was declared fully recovered on April 27, [there is] no positive patient since in Puerto Galera,” Dolor said, clarifying a previous report that 20 had tested positive of the viral disease in the town.

In a phone interview Thursday, Dr. Rodel Gabayan Jr., chief of the Puerto Galera town health office, said the reported 20 persons, who tested positive, refer to the “rapid mass screening test (RMST) and not to being COVID-19 positive.”

“The [rapid] test is to see who has a possible infection of COVID-19 and they are all subject for a confirmatory test,” Gabayan said.
 
He said the test was done twice during the same day when a person had the rapid test before they released the result.

On Tuesday, 286 people had the RMST and 13 came out positive.

On Wednesday, 167 took the rapid test, out of which seven tested positive. Those who tested positive remain asymptomatic.

They would undergo a confirmatory test for COVID-19 and were ordered to observe strict home quarantine.

Dolor said they recognize the initiative of the Puerto Galera local government to perform rapid antibody testing as the provincial government does.

He explained that in the case of a positive result in the rapid antibody testing, a person would be subjected to a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmatory test.

“Only the confirmatory test result coming from RT-PCR can tell if someone is [COVID-19] positive…,” Dolor said.

 

[Snowy79]

5 hours ago, Mike J said:

I think your post shows the importance of posting "source".  It is shown below.  I have high information in red that explains the "why" of rapid testing, and the requirements for second test.  In my opinion you have shown a strong bias in your post.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1271488/no-covid-19-patient-in-puerto-galera-says-oriental-mindoro-gov

CITY OF CALAPAN –– There is no coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient in Puerto Galera now, clarified Oriental Mindoro Governor Humerlito Dolor, in a post on Thursday on his Facebook page.

“Aside from Patient 44 who became positive on April 7, and after two negative results in his second and third tests, he was declared fully recovered on April 27, [there is] no positive patient since in Puerto Galera,” Dolor said, clarifying a previous report that 20 had tested positive of the viral disease in the town.

In a phone interview Thursday, Dr. Rodel Gabayan Jr., chief of the Puerto Galera town health office, said the reported 20 persons, who tested positive, refer to the “rapid mass screening test (RMST) and not to being COVID-19 positive.”

“The [rapid] test is to see who has a possible infection of COVID-19 and they are all subject for a confirmatory test,” Gabayan said.
 
He said the test was done twice during the same day when a person had the rapid test before they released the result.

On Tuesday, 286 people had the RMST and 13 came out positive.

On Wednesday, 167 took the rapid test, out of which seven tested positive. Those who tested positive remain asymptomatic.

They would undergo a confirmatory test for COVID-19 and were ordered to observe strict home quarantine.

Dolor said they recognize the initiative of the Puerto Galera local government to perform rapid antibody testing as the provincial government does.

He explained that in the case of a positive result in the rapid antibody testing, a person would be subjected to a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmatory test.

“Only the confirmatory test result coming from RT-PCR can tell if someone is [COVID-19] positive…,” Dolor said.

 

I never put any links as the reporting from Oriental Mindoro was very misleading.  Different media had opposing information.  It took the Governor to highlight the truth on his Facebook account and he asked for the media to highlight their misinformation.  I''ve attached a link this time which highlights the test innacuracies. https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250 and https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8862813/