Perfect example of bad statistics

[Mike J]

For an example of how to put out data that is virtually meaningless and can create a panic, read this article.  Notice the article trumpets the 36% rise in new USA cases and calls it a second wave.  BUT read the tiny little text under the graph.  The comparison is three days compared to the prior three days.  If you have monitored the daily new cases for the USA you probably know that "reported" cases are low on Saturday and Sunday, then spike on Monday and Tuesday as the cases are reported.   This stuff is bad enough without creating a panic via this kind of BS reporting.   If you compare seven to seven days, the number new cases is basically flat at approximately 20K per day.  A bad number for sure, but there is no evidence of a 36% spike by any stretch of the imagination.  No matter which side of the fence you stand on this type of reporting is harmful and counter productive.  End of rant.  Hmmm, maybe I do have cabin fever after all. 

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-case-spike-united-states-texas-arizona-north-carolina-coronavirus-201958682.html

While many countries are seeing a decline in COVID-19 cases, infections in the United States appear to be spiking, according to documents obtained by Yahoo News.

In a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document dated June 9, the U.S. had the highest spike of percentage change in daily cases, with a 36.5 percent jump in recent days. Of the top 10 countries in total cases, that is the biggest spike by a significant margin, compared with drops in cases in Brazil, Spain, Italy, Germany and Iran and growths of under 5 percent in Russia, India and Peru. 

A June 9 Federal Emergency Management Agency document shows the same spike in cases. The rolling average of deaths in the U.S., per the FEMA document, is starting to trend up over 1,000 per day.

According to tracking from Johns Hopkins University, the United States has had more than 1.9 million positive cases of the coronavirus and 112,000 deaths, the highest reported in either category of any country in the world.

As Texas continues to reopen, the state has set the record for coronavirus-related hospitalizations for the third straight day. On Wednesday, North Carolina reported a record high for statewide cases. 

Cases are also spiking in Arizona, where the state’s largest health system said it is reaching its capacity for patients needing external lung machines. Earlier this week, Arizona’s health director sent a letter to hospitals telling them to “fully activate” their emergency plans.

“We don’t want people to be in crisis mode, thinking that everything is all bad in Arizona with the cases,” said Jessica Rigler, the state health department’s assistant director. “We are certainly monitoring what’s going on and trying to ensure that people understand where we are with COVID-19 in our communities.”

In California, meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom has urged calm as the state deals with a surge in cases.

“As we phase in, in a responsible way, a reopening of the economy, we’ve made it abundantly clear that we anticipate an increase in the total number of positive cases,” Newsom said Tuesday. “But we also made it abundantly clear that the concurrent recognition and commitment that we are in a substantially different place than we were 90 days ago. We have hundreds of millions of masks now in our possession.”

The emergency department at Mount Sinai South Nassau hospital in Oceanside, N.Y., on April 13. (Jeffrey Basinger/Newsday via Getty Images)
The emergency department at Mount Sinai South Nassau hospital in Oceanside, N.Y., on April 13. (Jeffrey Basinger/Newsday via Getty Images)
Public health experts have warned that many areas of the country are opening too soon. Lenient social distancing policies in some states combined with Memorial Day weekend gatherings could be responsible for the current rise in cases. 

There are also concerns that the massive protests following the death of George Floyd could help accelerate the spread in some communities. According to tracking by the New York Times, cases are rising in 20 states as well as Puerto Rico. 

More than a month has passed since the White House’s coronavirus task force held a briefing, despite hundreds of Americans dying daily from the disease. On Monday, Politico reported that President President planned to restart his campaign rallies within the next two weeks.

“We were able to close our country, save millions of lives, open,” President said on Friday. “And now the trajectory is great.”

The June 9 CDC document noted the 10 counties that had seen the highest number of cases per 100,000 over the last two weeks. Of those counties, two were in Iowa and the others were located in Georgia, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arizona, Texas, Minnesota and New Mexico.

[manofthecoldland]

A good decision is based on knowledge, and not on numbers.

Plato

[Tommy T.]

2 minutes ago, manofthecoldland said:

A good decision is based on knowledge, and not on numbers.

Plato

Hmmm... Plato was likely correct... However, my view, today in 2020, is that good decisions are based on knowledge AND numbers... Yes, statistics can be used and abused, but I think they can be helpful - if used wisely?

[GeoffH]

4 minutes ago, manofthecoldland said:

A good decision is based on knowledge, and not on numbers.

Plato

 

I always preferred Aristotle to Plato :)

 

 

[Mike J]

14 minutes ago, manofthecoldland said:

A good decision is based on knowledge, and not on numbers.

Plato

Isn't Plato that stuff that looks like clay but is safe for kids to eat? 

[Tommy T.]

6 hours ago, Mike J said:

Isn't Plato that stuff that looks like clay but is safe for kids to eat? 

Mike.... I guess we need to edicate [sic] you a bit better? And maybe your post should have been under "Bad Puns!"

Edited June 12, 2020 by Tommy T.

[Jack D]

[Mike J]

"Data doesn't lie, but liars manipulate the data" - Mike J

[Jollygoodfellow]

Perfect example of bad statistics

Have got any statistics on bad statistics? 

[JJReyes]

Mark Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damn lies and statistics."