What's the betting - nothing to worry about this time next year?

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peterfe
Posted
Posted

I would certainly bet on either the end of Covid-19 this time next year, or the numbers being so low that it's nothing to worry about, both here in the Philippines and in other countries. This in spite of doomsday scenarios of "life/travel will never be the same again". Lots of countries, in various parts of the world, and not all islands (e.g. Thailand and Montenegro) have got their numbers right down already. Of course there will be all kinds of precautions in place when flights resume between e.g. Australia and Thailand, but looking at it logically, how necessary will they really be? Thailand has fewer than 10 daily new cases in a population of almost 70 million and Australia has similarly low figures, so the chances of an Australian catching Covid-19 on a trip to Thailand (unless he goes round all the brothels, and then he might catch some other things), or a Thai going to Australia are very very small indeed. And I honestly think the airlines will eventually dispense with many of their precautions - I mean, what's the point for a flight between two countries that have had (practically) no new cases for several months, which is what I believe the situation will be for many countries in a few months' time.

Big sensationalist headline in the papers this morning: "spike" in cases in China. Oh, worry, worry, mustn't go to China. About 50 new cases in a population of 1.39 billion!! 

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scott h
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18 minutes ago, peterfe said:

I would certainly bet on either the end of Covid-19 this time next year, or the numbers being so low that it's nothing to worry about, both here in the Philippines and in other countries.

I agree, Unlike polio or small pox where it took years to develop a vaccine the big 19 effects the global economy so the incentive to develop a vaccine is huge......

20 minutes ago, peterfe said:

"life/travel will never be the same again".

it might not be the same, but it will be bearable. and again once a vaccine is developed life "should" return to normal.........until the next time :shock_40_anim_gif:

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Old55
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I hope your are correct Peter. But we have no way to know what the real numbers are. It's our hope to spend several months in Philippines next summer. 

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Freebie
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2 hours ago, Old55 said:

I hope your are correct Peter. But we have no way to know what the real numbers are. It's our hope to spend several months in Philippines next summer. 

And its my hope to get out of Philippines next summer. Lol... having not been on a flight since January 2020, being forced to stay in same place is starting to get a bit samey. Had 14 trips  Philippines domestic and International )in 2019 to put things into context.

Was supposed to be in Alaska in Engalnd and Spain in June and Alaska in September. Now i just look at these places on You Tube....Hope things revert to a sense of normality before long.

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peterfe
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1 hour ago, Freebie said:

And its my hope to get out of Philippines next summer.

Well, you can leave any time, the question is when you can come back. My (wild) guess is the end of the year for UK and US citizens. The Department of Tourism is apparently thinking in terms of opening up to SE Asian and Australasian countries with good Covid-19 figures first, but even that will probably take 2-3 months at least. And it will no doubt go by nationality, not where you've spent the first part of 2020, so an Australian living in the UK will be able to get here sooner than a Brit living in Australia.

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Freebie
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3 hours ago, peterfe said:

 so an Australian living in the UK will be able to get here sooner than a Brit living in Australia.

For sure that would be a Philippines interpretation. Which would be most illogical but then I remember where I'm living.

Not too different to the need for a Brit ( me ) who hasnt lived in UK for over 35 years having to get the Police Clearance , No Crim record from UK.

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hk blues
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1 hour ago, Freebie said:

For sure that would be a Philippines interpretation. Which would be most illogical but then I remember where I'm living.

Not too different to the need for a Brit ( me ) who hasnt lived in UK for over 35 years having to get the Police Clearance , No Crim record from UK.

I suppose they have to be pragmatic - imagine how cumbersome it would be get police reports etc etc for every place someone has lived.  They likely work on the majority and recognise a minority slip through.  

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Mike J
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23 hours ago, peterfe said:

Big sensationalist headline in the papers this morning: "spike" in cases in China. Oh, worry, worry, mustn't go to China. About 50 new cases in a population of 1.39 billion!! 

Outbreaks start with a single case and can be cause for concern.  I recall the president of a first world country advising the population not to worry because it was only 15 cases.   Today that number is close to 2.2 million cases and they are still reporting about 20K new cases per day.

 

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RBM
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Read foreigners going to Cambodia must now deposit $3k for tests and insurance, lets hope it does not spread.

https://kh.usembassy.gov/new-cambodia-entry-requirements-and-covid-19-update/

Edited by Mike J
Added a source document for those interested
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Freebie
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16 hours ago, hk blues said:

I suppose they have to be pragmatic - imagine how cumbersome it would be get police reports etc etc for every place someone has lived.  They likely work on the majority and recognise a minority slip through.  

I agree with you.. and given some of the places Ive worked in getting a police report from them might have been nigh impossible.

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