Will Coronavirus Pandemic end in late 2021?

[Jack D]

Fauci believes normalcy will return by "the end of 2021" with coronavirus vaccine

Anthony Fauci told PBS NewsHour on Thursday that he expects the U.S. could "be as good [as] back to normal as we possibly can" by the end of 2021 if a coronavirus vaccine becomes widely available.

The big picture: Fauci made clear that this would not mean the virus is eradicated, saying, "We can get it under good enough control that it is so low that it doesn't interfere with the kind of normal life that we want to get the economy back, to get employment back."

"I do not think it is going to be 2024. I think it's going to be more like the end of 2021."

The state of play: Several vaccine candidates have entered human trials, though their effectiveness might not be what Americans are used to.

Fauci said last week that there are "not great" chances that an eventual vaccine will be 98% effective, arguing instead that the vaccine would likely reduce a person’s risk of infection by 50% or 60%.

The FDA says it will only require a 50% effectiveness rate for approval.

"You’ve got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that’s well controlled," Fauci added.

https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-end-of-2021-normal-f0bb2126-d304-498b-9951-f2b2989d0f8b.html

Edited August 15, 2020 by Jack D

[Dave Hounddriver]

This prompted me to read about how some of the worst pandemics in history ended.  I naively thought the black death had just gone away but it seems it came back every 20 years until people were taught to stay home and self isolate whenever there was an outbreak.  The following is an exerpt from the website that I found relevant:

Quote

 

London never really caught a break after the Black Death. The plague resurfaced roughly every 20 years from 1348 to 1665—40 outbreaks in 300 years. And with each new plague epidemic, 20 percent of the men, women and children living in the British capital were killed.

By the early 1500s, England imposed the first laws to separate and isolate the sick. Homes stricken by plague were marked with a bale of hay strung to a pole outside. If you had infected family members, you had to carry a white pole when you went out in public. Cats and dogs were believed to carry the disease, so there was a wholesale massacre of hundreds of thousands of animals.

The Great Plague of 1665 was the last and one of the worst of the centuries-long outbreaks, killing 100,000 Londoners in just seven months. All public entertainment was banned and victims were forcibly shut into their homes to prevent the spread of the disease. Red crosses were painted on their doors along with a plea for forgiveness: “Lord have mercy upon us.”

As cruel as it was to shut up the sick in their homes and bury the dead in mass graves, it may have been the only way to bring the last great plague outbreak to an end.

 

https://www.history.com/news/pandemics-end-plague-cholera-black-death-smallpox

[intrepid]

The Spanish Flu 1918-1920 may be the most closely related to our current pandemic.  A cure or vaccine for the Spanish Flu was never developed. 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how-did-the-spanish-flu-pandemic-end-and-what-lessons-can-we-learn-from-a-century-ago

[Jack D]

3 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

The Great Plague of 1665 was the last and one of the worst of the centuries-long outbreaks, killing 100,000 Londoners in just seven months. All public entertainment was banned and victims were forcibly shut into their homes to prevent the spread of the disease. Red crosses were painted on their doors along with a plea for forgiveness: “Lord have mercy upon us.”

As cruel as it was to shut up the sick in their homes and bury the dead in mass graves, it may have been the only way to bring the last great plague outbreak to an end.

Here's an interesting story about the great plague of 1665.

 

[Jollygoodfellow]

13 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

All public entertainment was banned

Are you saying the horse and chariot gallop in movie theaters were closed.  Or was it just the public floggings?  

[Gator]

On 8/15/2020 at 2:37 PM, Jack D said:

Fauci believes normalcy will return by "the end of 2021" with coronavirus vaccine

Nah, the Corona O’ Rama be over right after the election in the USA. 
 

Posted in doctors office:

Edited August 16, 2020 by Gator