Anyone considering visiting your homeland or another country for a vaccine inoculation?

[Mike J]

1 minute ago, Jack D said:

I really meant to say that only 9 out of 10 people have shown positive results from the Pfizer vaccine, which gives me just a 10 percent chance of it ever working for me.

If you works for 90 percent of people (positive), why do you think you would be part of the 10 percent where the vaccine was not effective? 

[Jack D]

Just now, Mike J said:

If you works for 90 percent of people (positive), why do you think you would be part of the 10 percent where the vaccine was not effective? 

I'm just pointing out the possibility of me being in the the 10 percent group where it was not effective. It's a possibility... isn't it?... and if it's a possibility, why should I go through all of the negative side-effects for nothing?

I'd rather wait for a better vaccine (i.e., one without negative side-effects) to come along.

[Mike J]

3 minutes ago, Jack D said:

I'm just pointing out the possibility of me being in the the 10 percent group where it was not effective. It's a possibility... isn't it?... and if it's a possibility, why should I go through all of the negative side-effects for nothing?

I'd rather wait for a better vaccine (i.e., one without negative side-effects) to come along.

I understand now.  What you wrote was you had "just a 10 percent chance of it ever working for me" which was not an accurate statement.  But yes, there is certainly a 10 percent chance it may not work and you still might have some of the side effects.  

[hk blues]

3 hours ago, Mike J said:

I understand now.  What you wrote was you had "just a 10 percent chance of it ever working for me" which was not an accurate statement.  But yes, there is certainly a 10 percent chance it may not work and you still might have some of the side effects.  

Yes, I was confused by the math too.

I'd say it's pessimistic to focus on the 10% fail rate rather than the 90% success rate but each to their own. 

I'm pragmatic - yes, a percentage of fully approved drugs do result in terrible consequences but it's a tiny percentage. Drug companies are not irresponsible and do carry out exhaustive trials - the litigation risk these days is simply too high. I'm going to wait and see and am certainty not going to jump in to the 1st vaccine available here but if it's from one of the big guys I'm in.

I fully respect people's right to decide what's going into their bodies even I don't always understand the logic.

[GeoffH]

Moderna (a second western vaccine candidate) have released preliminary results which show an inital 94.5% efficacy rate (that will probably drop to 85% to 90% later with larger numbers but still excellent). 

This is a similar efficacy to the Pfizer vaccine efficacy but the Pfizer vaccine candidate needs to be refigerated at -70C (using dry ice or similar) which is difficult for remote areas and third world countries to manage.

The Moderna vaccine can be stored at -20C for 6 months (normal freezer temperature) and up to a month at normal refigerator temperatures which will make distribution a lot lot simpler because freezer trucks, hospital and clinic freezers and even domestic freezers can be used for long term storage of doses.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03248-7

 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by GeoffH

[Old55]

4 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

Moderna (a second western vaccine candidate) have released preliminary results which show an inital 94.5% efficacy rate (that will probably drop to 85% to 90% later with larger numbers but still excellent). 

This is a similar efficay to the Pfizer vaccine efficacy but the Pfizer vaccine candidate needs to be refigerated at -70C (using dry ice or similar) which is difficult for remote areas and third world countries to manage.

The Moderna vaccine can be stored at -20C for 6 months (normal freezer temperature) and about a week at normal refigerator temperatures which will make distribution a lot lot simpler because freezer trucks, hospital and clinic freezers and even domestic freezers can be used for long term storage of doses.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03248-7

 

 

It seems the prefect vaccine for Philippines and other third world countries. Hopefully this can be quickly made in large quantities.  

The State I live in has started a modified lock down once more we are not out of the woods yet. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Old55

[Dave Hounddriver]

55 minutes ago, Old55 said:

The State I live in has started a modified lock down once more we are not out of the woods yet. 

Yep.  Here too, the cases are increasing.  Time for them to get that vaccine distributed and cross our fingers.

I do wonder what the 95% success rate means.  Does it mean that 5% of those who get vaccinated will end up getting Covid anyway?

[scott h]

53 minutes ago, Old55 said:

Hopefully this can be quickly made in large quantities.  

Just getting the vaccine in quantity is only part of the challenge. 

Let me put on my logistic hat. 

110 million people. (give or take)

220 million syringes if two shots needed. 

If needles are reused, how many portable sterilization machines will be  needed?

How many refrigeration vehicles to go to remote areas. 

Transportation, housing, feeding and payroll for vaccination teams.

Development, issuing, tracking and certifying vaccination records.

crowd management and control at vaccination sites.  PNP or army present?

This is going to be a logistical headache beyond imagination lol  

 

[Old55]

10 minutes ago, scott h said:

Just getting the vaccine in quantity is only part of the challenge. 

Let me put on my logistic hat. 

110 million people. (give or take)

220 million syringes if two shots needed. 

If needles are reused, how many portable sterilization machines will be  needed?

How many refrigeration vehicles to go to remote areas. 

Transportation, housing, feeding and payroll for vaccination teams.

Development, issuing, tracking and certifying vaccination records.

crowd management and control at vaccination sites.  PNP or army present?

This is going to be a logistical headache beyond imagination lol  

 

If two thirds of the population were to be inoculated the effect would be worthwhile. I agree with you Scott and I know you were not being negative. No way is Philippines able or willing to provide a dose to every citizen. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Old55

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

I do wonder what the 95% success rate means.  Does it mean that 5% of those who get vaccinated will end up getting Covid anyway?

In this case it means that 'the placebo group' of people (who didn't get the vaccine but were given a 'fake injection' so they wouldn't know) 19 times as many people caught Covid as the number of people in the group of people who were given the vaccine candidate.

However there are preliminary results which give hope that even where a person who has had the vaccine shots gets infected that they will experience a less severe form of Covid (possibly even asymptomatic).  We'll know more about this later (a month maybe?) as the data is analyzed further and more results come in (the trial will continue to be monitored for some time).

Simply put the Moderna vaccine candidate has been shown to reduce your chance of catching Covid by 19 times.

NB if the final efficacy ends up at 90% then it will reduce your chance of catching Covid by 10 times not 19 (still with the probable but not certain at this point effect of reducing the severity if you do catch it).

NB 2 A vaccine doesn't have to be 100% effective to eliminate a virus; for example two doses of the Polio vaccine is only 90% effective and that's been eliminated in most first world countries.

NB 3 The R number comes into play here, if enough people can be immunized (either by catching the virus or be vaccination) that the R number drops below 1 then case numbers will naturally fall and even if the virus is not eliminated community transmission will eventually be at very low levels (that doesn't require universal vaccination, there is some question about how much of the population needs to be vaccinated however).

Edited November 17, 2020 by GeoffH