World war 3?

[GeoffH]

I think that Putin is very much a believer in the Salami slice method (as it seems is Xi)... rather than going all in (like Germany and Japan did in WW2) they're content to take a slice now (which riles up the west but not enough to go to war) and then wait a while and grab another slice - Georgia 2014, Ukraine 2022... another ex Soviet state 2030?

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by GeoffH

[scott h]

10 minutes ago, Old55 said:

They took over the Spartly islands by force.

By their mindset the Spartly islands are theirs...(right or wrong that is what THEY believe) they are just reoccupying what they think is theirs.

13 minutes ago, Old55 said:

ccp decides to attack Taiwan

Until last week I would have said that this would be highly unlikely. A lot will depend on how the US acts vs. Russia. If Russia is not slapped down hard, they might just think its worth the risk.

But like how they are dealing with Hong Kong, china is very, very patient and think long term. They could have taken over HK a long time ago, but they waited and waited until they could start imposing their will without a huge international outcry. The same goes with Taiwan, due to the poor Taiwan economy, more and more of the best and brightest are moving to the mainland for good jobs, I bet in 10-20 years, these folks will start to return and the anti-mainland mindset will start to change, like it did in HK.

[Dave Hounddriver]

55 minutes ago, scott h said:

Historically china has not started a war of aggression in 3000 years

From wiki . .   "on 7 October 1950, Chinese troops advanced into eastern Tibet, crossing the border at 5 places. The purpose was not to invade Tibet per se but to capture the Tibetan army in Chamdo, demoralize the Lhasa government, and thus exert powerful pressure to send negotiators to Beijing to sign terms for a handover of Tibet."

IMHO that is similar to what Russia just did and would have a similar effect if done to Taiwan or any other nation (maybe Philippines but maybe all they want are the Spratleys).

[scott h]

5 minutes ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

The purpose

From wiki.....Tibet came under the rule of the Qing dynasty of China in 1720 after the Qing expelled the forces of the Dzungar Khanate.^[17]

IMO they were trying to get bac what they thought was theirs....Like the so called 9 dash line....

[Gator]

4 hours ago, Old55 said:

Is there hope economic sanctions could bring them to reason? It could be in todays interconnected world this may be the case. 

I doubt it - sanctions did little during the Cold War (maybe another one is coming?) and they haven’t stopped Iran (slowed them down perhaps). And who knows what agreements Putin and Xi made during Putins visit to China a few weeks ago. What Russia is denied they can likely obtain directly or indirectly thru China; even if it is by “hook or crook”. 
 

There’s also collateral damage from sanctions to consider. Russia supplies almost 40% of Europes natural gas, with Germany (who’s an ally to the USA) being their biggest customer. Energy prices are already beginning to soar - Brent crude just passed 100$ a barrel and Texas oil is almost there at 96$ a barrel. In addition, many of the natural gas pipelines pass thru the Ukraine. I’m sure some will be either damaged / destroyed by sabotage or as an indirect consequence to the war. 

[earthdome]

1 minute ago, Gator said:

There’s also collateral damage from sanctions to consider. Russia supplies almost 40% of Europes natural gas, with Germany (who’s an ally to the USA) being their biggest customer.

Germany has made this problem worse by going bat s___ crazy green and shutting down their nuclear power plants making them even more dependent on Russia. Say what you want of the French, but at least they realize that energy independence is important and have committed to building a large number of next generation nuclear plants.

[jimeve]

45 minutes ago, earthdome said:

Germany has made this problem worse by going bat s___ crazy green and shutting down their nuclear power plants making them even more dependent on Russia

Germany has shut down half of it's nuclear plants, three still remaining.

Germany shuts down half of its 6 remaining nuclear plants ...

[GeoffH]

13 minutes ago, jimeve said:

Germany has shut down half of it's nuclear plants, three still remaining.

Germany shuts down half of its 6 remaining nuclear plants ...

 

I honestly don't agree with shutting down nuclear plants just to use more gas if a country is genuinely trying to reduce green house gas emmission... it's just counter productive.

[jimeve]

22 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

 

I honestly don't agree with shutting down nuclear plants just to use more gas if a country is genuinely trying to reduce green house gas emmission... it's just counter productive.

I don't agree in shutting down nuclear plants too, yes it's counter productive if not making it worse.

[Gator]

41 minutes ago, GeoffH said:

 

I honestly don't agree with shutting down nuclear plants just to use more gas if a country is genuinely trying to reduce green house gas emmission... it's just counter productive.

Natural - existing in or formed by nature (opposed to artificial)

See dude, nukes are bad cuz they’re not like from nature man! Like duuuude……natural gas is from nature it’s like green energy man. Right up there with solar and wind energy man. Like you need to go smoke some weed, hug a tree, (big word alert!) contemplate and commune with nature dude. 🤣🤣🤣