Possible rental price crash if POGOS are closed.

[Snowy79]

Just reading today that real estate holdings are panicking over President Marcos's administration clamping down on POGOS. 

Some government officials, lawmakers and public interest groups have lobbied the government to kick out all POGOs in the country due to a wave of crimes perpetrated by a few rogue industry players.

If this happens it could affect thousands of landlords and small time investors.  One forecast of price crashes below with a comparison to 2019 prices. I'd already warned a few expats off about buying condos in Manila to rent out due to a surplus in properties, this could kill the market if it comes off. 

 

[OnMyWay]

7 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

Just reading today that real estate holdings are panicking over President Marcos's administration clamping down on POGOS. 

Some government officials, lawmakers and public interest groups have lobbied the government to kick out all POGOs in the country due to a wave of crimes perpetrated by a few rogue industry players.

If this happens it could affect thousands of landlords and small time investors.  One forecast of price crashes below with a comparison to 2019 prices. I'd already warned a few expats off about buying condos in Manila to rent out due to a surplus in properties, this could kill the market if it comes off. 

 

What is the chart?  Per SQM?

I'm following new house prices in Angeles.  They are dropping finally.  On the Angeles Expat group I'm in, I have argued that what goes up must come down, and many (mostly those who own already) say no way, PH property go up forever.  They are dreaming and hoping their investment will hold it's overinflated price / value.

I think the PH housing market will decline.  It is my opinion that PH will follow the U.S. and other Western markets, and lose at least 20% where prices a way too high.  I still follow the San Antonio market.  It was not one of the first to start dropping, but now it is.  I get a daily e-mail with new listings and price declines on the West side of San Antonio.  A few months ago, there would be 5-20 new listings and no price reductions.  Yesterday, 42 new listings and 75 price reduced.  Buyers are gone and sellers are panicking.  Once the downtrend starts, buyers will be on the sidelines.  Nobody wants to get caught holding the bag.

[OnMyWay]

Slightly different topic, but a U.S. example.  I also get Realtor.com e-mail updates for the Stone Oak area of San Antonio.  When I started looking in 2019 you could find nice houses for under 300k near the best schools in San Antonio.  That is my #1 area if we do make the move.  2 months ago, they were still having bidding wars and prices were way overblown.175-200 per sq foot not uncommon and everything was a bidding war.  Now I am getting price decreases all the time.  If I can get 90-100 per sq ft, I might be back in the ball game.  Got this just now.  It is a buyer's market now.  This house has been on the market 46 days.  Still overpriced.

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Edited September 20, 2022 by Jollygoodfellow
Changed to short URL

[Kingpin]

11 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

I'm following new house prices in Angeles.  They are dropping finally.

Which websites? It's not an easy task, there are wide variations between old houses, new houses, inside and outside subdivisions, and then there are lot prices which don't consider increasing build costs.

Something new I've noticed are privately owned lots that cost less than unsold lots from the developer.  This doesn't mean lower than what they paid because the developers steadily and often dramatically increase prices over time, based on some formula known only to them.

 

 

[Snowy79]

11 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

What is the chart?  Per SQM?

I'm following new house prices in Angeles.  They are dropping finally.  On the Angeles Expat group I'm in, I have argued that what goes up must come down, and many (mostly those who own already) say no way, PH property go up forever.  They are dreaming and hoping their investment will hold it's overinflated price / value.

I think the PH housing market will decline.  It is my opinion that PH will follow the U.S. and other Western markets, and lose at least 20% where prices a way too high.  I still follow the San Antonio market.  It was not one of the first to start dropping, but now it is.  I get a daily e-mail with new listings and price declines on the West side of San Antonio.  A few months ago, there would be 5-20 new listings and no price reductions.  Yesterday, 42 new listings and 75 price reduced.  Buyers are gone and sellers are panicking.  Once the downtrend starts, buyers will be on the sidelines.  Nobody wants to get caught holding the bag.

Yes it's per sqm. Something is certainly afoot as more media outlets are talking about the subject. I had seen similar happening in Cambodia where the government clamped down on the Chinese around Sihanoukville and the market crashed. Rumour has it the Cambodian family dynasties have stepped in to fill the void and the POGOS have moved to other cities. I'm sure that would never happen here in the Philippines though. 

I've always recommended people if they are buying a condo just to buy in a large tourist area with limited free land. A decent island ideally. They can't build on what's not there so supply and demand is on your side. Manila especially near the Bay area must have thousands of apartments already sitting empty yet they want crazy prices per sqm and more buildings are going up.  

[OnMyWay]

48 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

Yes it's per sqm. Something is certainly afoot as more media outlets are talking about the subject. I had seen similar happening in Cambodia where the government clamped down on the Chinese around Sihanoukville and the market crashed. Rumour has it the Cambodian family dynasties have stepped in to fill the void and the POGOS have moved to other cities. I'm sure that would never happen here in the Philippines though. 

I've always recommended people if they are buying a condo just to buy in a large tourist area with limited free land. A decent island ideally. They can't build on what's not there so supply and demand is on your side. Manila especially near the Bay area must have thousands of apartments already sitting empty yet they want crazy prices per sqm and more buildings are going up.  

I think I saw the article you read, with the chart.  Also, I was just at Petron and one of the newspapers has the story as front page headline.

[OnMyWay]

1 hour ago, Kingpin said:

Which websites? It's not an easy task, there are wide variations between old houses, new houses, inside and outside subdivisions, and then there are lot prices which don't consider increasing build costs.

Something new I've noticed are privately owned lots that cost less than unsold lots from the developer.  This doesn't mean lower than what they paid because the developers steadily and often dramatically increase prices over time, based on some formula known only to them.

 

 

Mostly this FB group.  There are other FB groups too, and the websites.  I see all the same houses advertised by multiple "realtors".
https://www.facebook.com/groups/423549202190063

Starting to see the spec houses being reduced.  14.5 to 13.5, etc.  They can't hold them forever.

[Snowy79]

5 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

I think I saw the article you read, with the chart.  Also, I was just at Petron and one of the newspapers has the story as front page headline.

It's looking like the Chinese are pushing their luck again. The POGOs have been blamed for the majority of crime increases from drugs to kidnapping and people smuggling, just today the head of the Bureau of Immigration was saying Bictuan is struggling to cope with the amount of foreigners detained. On Friday they detained 91 foreigners in Pasig and another 41 in Angeles City and it looks POGO related.  

[Gas]

23 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

It's looking like the Chinese are pushing their luck again. The POGOs have been blamed for the majority of crime increases from drugs to kidnapping and people smuggling, just today the head of the Bureau of Immigration was saying Bictuan is struggling to cope with the amount of foreigners detained. On Friday they detained 91 foreigners in Pasig and another 41 in Angeles City and it looks POGO related.  

New administration in power, so plenty of reshuffling going on from top to bottom.

Same thing happened in 2016 but calmed down once everyone knew their place. 

 

[BrettGC]

32 minutes ago, Gas said:

New administration in power, so plenty of reshuffling going on from top to bottom.

Same thing happened in 2016 but calmed down once everyone knew their place. 

 

Yep, new officials just flexing to let them know where the gifts need to go.