Europe Excess Mortality

[Jollygoodfellow]

3 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

My apologies but some of these links run into twenty plus pages and charts. 

No, you misunderstood I think. Im talking about for example OMW post such as "How Warren Buffett and Bill Gates", you get links we don't need to sign up, photos of Gates, etc we don't need and a huge post if you were using a cell phone in the middle of the province you possible can't load because of poor internet. Also using a cell phone to read, if it loads gives you much more to scroll through so people just get fed up and don't read or go elsewhere.

Pasting as plain text also eliminates different Fonts and sizes of text which will keep the post clean and easier to read or quote. 

I can turn off HTML posting permissions which will stop this forever or just delete offending posts as it appears to be happening a lot lately. 

[Snowy79]

9 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

I'm not making an argument for or against vaccines.   The topic was excess deaths and it seems Sweden has done better than others with their overall strategy, based on excess deaths.  I just looked and I think Sweden is about 75% vaccinated.

In the first link you gave, they are trying to use excess deaths in another manner that does not jive with how most excess deaths analysis is done.  As their baseline excess deaths, they use the previous rolling 3 months average excess deaths.  So that includes months where covid was already happening.  There may be some value in the analysis but it is not the normal excess deaths usage.

US CDC and the UK link you provided use the previous 5-6 years as a baseline.  Your second link mentions excess deaths in the title, but those are questions they are answering.  Their answer is similar to what I said:

To calculate excess deaths in a particular year, the data from that year must be compared to the 5-year average. As the first vaccination was administered on 8 December 2020, we do not hold 5 years-worth of information to compare to 2022 deaths by vaccination status data to provide an 'excess deaths' figure. This is the reason that the information you requested regarding excess deaths by vaccination status is not held.

Within that article there is another link:

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/

with good info on excess deaths methodology.

For excess deaths, we compare numbers and rates to a five-year average; this ensures that we are comparing like for like in terms of life expectancy, advances in healthcare, population size and age structure. Averaging over five years removes the fluctuations seen year-on-year. Usually we use the most recent five years, for example we compared deaths in 2020 with the five-year average for 2015 to 2019.

When looking at deaths in 2021 we used the five-year average for 2015 to 2019 again (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison with the number of deaths expected in a normal (non-pandemic) year; an average of 2016 to 2020 would not have been helpful as a comparison.

I have mainly used CDC excess deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

There is another graph that includes Covid deaths on it, I think, but it does not seem to be working right now.  There are a lot of stats on cause of death too.

 

 

There's certainly lots of factors involved in excess deaths but the popular concensus is the majority of excess deaths can be pinned down to the effects of covid, both on the individual and also the health care of a nation. 

I will see if I can dig it out but there is a video that was doing the rounds where the excess deaths in the US and the UK. Two countries with decent vaccination reporting and health care were compared. They charted vaccination rates, covid cases, deaths and hospital waiting times by month then overlayed them. The results showed that deaths increased during covid peaks and were much lower in higher vaccinated areas and areas where the health care system was under strain. This was also mirrored in Sweden at the start. Sweden had some of the highest deaths in the World and a low vaccination rate plus a strained health system at the start. They rushed out their vaccines in response, implemented tighter constraints and got their health care system back on track and excess deaths dropped. You also need to compare the death rates precovid compared to during covid.

[OnMyWay]

48 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

You also need to compare the death rates precovid compared to during covid.

That was my point.

[hk blues]

I'm not particularly invested in this topic but isn't it logic 101 that as people couldn't visit hospitals, doctors, clinics etc for well-nigh 2 years there will be a resultant increase in deaths regardless of any other factors? 

Probably as simple as that.

[Snowy79]

8 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

That was my point.

Also the actual numbers, some excess deaths are only in the hundreds and previous years there were some spikes where deaths were higher but brought down the following year with negative excess deaths. Spain had one major spike that was even pinned down to unusually high temperatures. Nothing to do with covid at all.  

[axedztop]

Thank goodness social media did not exist during the polio, diphtheria, measles, whooping cough, mumps epidemics of the past or many of us would not have been born or would not have survived had we been born.