SpaceX May Take Astronauts Home in 2025 If Boeing Unfit

[Mike J]

I have been following this since they launched.  The astronauts were supposed to stay 7-10 days, now it may be as late as 2025 for them to return.  Wow, what a FUBAR for Boeing who is already under scrutiny for its airplane issue.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/spacex-may-take-astronauts-home-in-2025-if-boeing-unfit/ar-AA1opi8p?cvid=cbade28b063b4ccf9f65880fe0435945&ei=22

(Bloomberg) -- NASA is working with Elon Musk’s SpaceX on plans to return two astronauts to Earth in the event that they’re unable to travel on the troubled Boeing Co. craft that initially carried them to space.

NASA representatives announced the contingency plan Wednesday, saying astronauts Barry “Butch” Wilmore and Sunita “Suni” Williams could come back to Earth around February 2025 with a two-person crew on SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission. That mission is slated to launch to the International Space Station in September. 

The agency said it needs to make a final decision in mid-August on whether to return the astronauts home on the Boeing spacecraft. The call may ultimately be made by NASA’s Associate Administrator Jim Free or Bill Nelson, the agency’s top official. 

Wilmore and Williams have been living on the International Space Station since June 6, after launching on the inaugural crewed flight of Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner spacecraft. 

The mission is a critical test to determine if the vehicle is safe to regularly carry astronauts to and from orbit. Originally, the two astronauts were supposed to stay on the station for roughly a week, but have now been in orbit for two months.

If NASA decided to go the SpaceX route, Starliner would come home empty prior to Crew-9’s launch.

“Our chances of an uncrewed Starliner return has increased a little bit based on where things have gone over the last week or two,” Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator for space operations, said during a press conference. “That’s why we’re looking more closely at that option, to make sure that we can handle it.”
Related video: NASA faces tight deadline to return stranded astronauts to Earth (WION)
The Northrop Grumman Cygnus cargo spacecraft successfully docked at the

Boeing’s Starliner experienced a number of technical issues while attempting to dock with the space station, including helium leaks and a handful of thrusters that failed and had to be rebooted. NASA has been trying to determine if Starliner is safe to bring Wilmore and Williams home despite the thruster problems. 

“We still believe in Starliner’s capability and its flight rationale,” Boeing said in a statement after NASA’s news conference. “If NASA decides to change the mission, we will take the actions necessary to configure Starliner for an uncrewed return.”

If SpaceX is called upon to return Wilmore and Williams, it will be another embarrassing blow to the Starliner program, which has been plagued with technical issues for much of its development. It would also underscore the government’s dependence on Musk’s company, which has cemented itself as an essential partner of the US space program.

Prior to launching this test flight, Boeing’s Starliner had suffered a botched uncrewed test mission in 2019, as well as significant delays and technical problems that had pushed back the current flight by seven years. Last week, Boeing announced an additional $125 million charge on Starliner, putting its cost overruns at $1.6 billion since 2016.

NASA and Boeing have been running tests and analysis while Starliner is docked with the space station to better understand why the thrusters failed.

The agency announced the results of ground testing at NASA’s White Sands Test Facility in late July, which indicated that overheating of seals made out of Teflon may be to blame for the thruster failures. 

However, NASA is concerned because “we can’t totally prove with certainty what we’re seeing on orbit is exactly what’s been replicated on the ground,” said Steve Stich, program manager for the agency’s Commercial Crew program.

NASA representatives indicated that people within NASA have disagreed over whether Starliner is safe to come home given the uncertainty, prompting an increased focus on the SpaceX contingency plan. One of the biggest concerns is that a combination of the helium leaks and thruster failures might occur as Starliner attempts to take itself out of orbit, leading to some loss of control of the vehicle.

“I think reasonable people could have different views on which path we should take,” Bowersox said.

Over the coming days, NASA and Boeing personnel will collect more data, update software and lay out plans for how to conduct the multiple options for returning Wilmore and Williams. 

Propulsion experts from NASA’s various centers are helping the Starliner teams to go over the data to see if anything has been missed. Once all the data is compiled, the agency will conduct a formal review and make a recommendation.

(Updates with Boeing statement in ninth paragraph.)

[Possum]

I remember when engineers ran Boeing. I also remember when they later started with all the stock buy backs and said "This isn't going to end well."

[Mike J]

What has really "chapped NASA's @ss" is that Boeing is just now saying they stripped out the code that would allow the vehicle to be detached and flown autonomously.   So the option to fly the capsule back to earth without a crew is not available unless Boeing rolls back the code that runs the vehicle.  Apparently Boeing did this without informing NASA.  One has to ask; why did Boeing change something that was working and eliminate the possible of autonomous flight?

Further info in this article https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/why-is-boeings-starliner-struggling-to-return-nasa-astronauts-from-the-iss-know-the-reasons-here/articleshow/112355386.cms?from=mdr

<snip>

Software issues hindering autonomous flight
The existing software for Starliner is unable to independently undock from the International Space Station or re-enter Earth's atmosphere, according to sources. An already challenging mission is made even more difficult by this issue. This software problem is causing serious problems for Starliner, which was intended to be a crewed flying test for NASA and Boeing, as reported by Yahoo news.

<end snip>

 

Edited August 8 by Mike J
Added additional article URL

[Old55]

I've learned from a reliable source that there are physical detail parts that require replacement and testing. This would require fairly major work and testing in a factory setting.

Boeing has a new CEO who seems to be a real change. IMO the entire board and top layer of management should be removed. Their replacements should have some engineering background. A fixed salary should be applied without financial incentives especially stock options and the like.

Our Union has started negotiations for a new contract in October of this year. On the good side they are requesting a number of quality changes and improvements. Stupidly asking a ridiculous pay increase. Improving entry level wage for skilled craftsmen would be a huge help. A large number of Machinists I interviewed were substandard so we were constantly short handed.

[OnMyWay]

12 hours ago, Old55 said:

I've learned from a reliable source that there are physical detail parts that require replacement and testing.

The doors?

[Mike J]

Given what is known now, i.e. five of 28 thrusters failed, would NASA have approved the crewed flight to the ISS.  The answer has to be "no way, that propulsion system must be redesigned".  There is no way Boeing will be allowed to go forward in the program without corrective measures to those thrusters.  So logic tells me if NASA would have said no to a launch, how can they yes to bring them back in Starliner.  And, the thruster failures have now been replicated on earth, why did Boeing not find the failures during testing during the build?  Boeing, unfortunately, is looking like a "has been" compared to the company it once was.   

My opinions of course, except the 5 of 28 thruster failures/issues which has been acknowledged by both NASA and Boeing.  And the helium leak.

[Possum]

5 hours ago, Mike J said:

And, the thruster failures have now been replicated on earth, why did Boeing not find the failures during testing during the build?  Boeing, unfortunately, is looking like a "has been" compared to the company it once was.   

Testing is very expensive, that's why. Same reason the 737 MAX relied on a single sensor with no backup for flight control. Boeing then said the new design would not require any simulator training for 737 pilots which saves the airlines money. All Boeing decisions seem to be money first decisions. The CEO who resigned got a $33 million pay day. The new CEO's pay is based 60% on safety and quality, 40% on stock price. But they get away with it partly because they are a major defense contractor that cannot be replaced. Regulatory capture also plays into it. It's sad because Boeing at one time was the gold standard in aircraft.

[Old55]

Possum, you are 100% correct about Boeing upper management. Until the late 90's Boeing was the highest in quality and innovation.

The root cause of this failure is greed and corruption. Quality comes at a price and Boeing Corporate decided 25 years ago to cut costs anyplace they could and QA was hit hard. I saw this with my own eyes every day.

Boeing should scrap Starliner but may be in too deep. Boeing should instead have focused on building the worlds best aircraft. Sadly they have failed in both. 

Edited August 10 by Old55

[Mike J]

15 hours ago, Old55 said:

Boeing should scrap Starliner but may be in too deep

They have already lost $1.6 billion because NASA was smart enough to use a fixed cost contract instead of the "cost plus" contract.  Both NASA and Boeing are caught between a rock and a hard place.  Boeing has a contract to fulfill.  NASA, for safety reasons, is supposed to have two contractors to provide shuttle service to/from the space station.  The space station may be de-orbited before Boeing is ever in position to fulfill their end of the contract.  I do think Boeing would be better off to step away from the Artemis project if possible.  Like you say, they need to get back to what they used to do and that was build the best and safest aircraft in the world.  They need engineers at the top layer of management not accountants. 

[Mike J]

SpaceX will bring back the two astronauts.  I think this was the correct decision.  There can be no doubt that NASA will require the thruster issue to be solved prior to any other flights (in my opinion).  Following that logic, the capsule is not safe for to fly with astronauts on board.  Boeing insists it is safe to fly but trust in Boeing is probably at an all time low.  What I found really interesting was that NASA said the astronauts will stay until February, but the article does not mention how they will come home via SpaceX.  Boeing had to strongarm NASA into not saying how the astronauts would return.  Politics at its best and ugliest.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/news/nasa-decision-against-using-a-boeing-capsule-to-bring-astronauts-back-adds-to-company-s-problems/ar-AA1pmVYM?ocid=windirect&cvid=72938ce9203e4590f6035fe212f94173&ei=61

NASA's announcement Saturday that it won't use a troubled Boeing capsule to return two stranded astronauts to Earth is a yet another setback for the struggling company, although the financial damage is likely to be less than the reputational harm.

Once a symbol of American engineering and technological prowess, Boeing has seen its reputation battered since two 737 Max airliners crashed in 2018 and 2019, killing 346 people. The safety of its products came under renewed scrutiny after a panel blew out of a Max during a flight this January.

And now NASA has decided that it is safer to keep the astronauts in space until February rather than risk using the Boeing Starliner capsule that delivered them to the international space station. The capsule has been plagued by problems with its propulsion system.
NASA administrator Bill Nelson said the decision to send the Boeing capsule back to Earth empty "is a result of a commitment to safety.” Boeing had insisted Starliner was safe based on recent tests of thrusters both in space and on the ground.

The space capsule program represents a tiny fraction of Boeing's revenue, but carrying astronauts is a high-profile job — like Boeing's work building Air Force One presidential jets.

“The whole thing is another black eye” for Boeing, aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia said. “It’s going to sting a little longer, but nothing they haven’t dealt with before.”

Boeing has lost more than $25 billion since 2018 as its aircraft-manufacturing business cratered after those crashes. For a time, the defense and space side of the company provided a partial cushion, posting strong profits and steady revenue through 2021.

Since 2022, however, Boeing's defense and space division has stumbled too, losing $6 billion — slightly more than the airplane side of the company in the same period.

The results have been dragged down by several fixed-price contracts for NASA and the Pentagon, including a deal to build new Air Force One presidential jets. Boeing has found itself on the hook as costs for those projects have risen far beyond the company's estimates.

The company recorded a $1 billion loss from fixed-price government contracts in the second quarter alone, but the problem is not new.

“We have a couple of fixed-price development programs we have to just finish and never do them again,” then-CEO David Calhoun said last year. “Never do them again.”

In 2014, NASA awarded Boeing a $4.2 billion fixed-price contract to build a vehicle to carry astronauts to the International Space Station after the retirement of space shuttles, along with a $2.6 billion contract to SpaceX.

Boeing, with more than a century of building airplane and decades as a NASA contractor, was seen as the favorite. But Starliner suffered technical setbacks that caused it to cancel some test launches, fall behind schedule and go over budget. SpaceX won the race to ferry astronauts to the ISS, which it accomplished in 2020.

Boeing was finally ready to carry astronauts this year, and Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams launched aboard Starliner in early June for what was intended to be an 8-day stay in space. But thruster failures and helium leaks led NASA to park the vehicle at the space station while engineers debated how to return them to Earth.

The company said in a regulatory filing that the latest hitch with Starliner caused a $125 million loss through June 30, which pushed cumulative cost overruns on the program to more than $1.5 billion. “Risk remains that we may record additional losses in future periods,” Boeing said.

Aboulafia said Starliner's impact on Boeing business and finances will be modest — “not really a needle-mover.” Even the $4.2 billion, multi-year NASA contract is a relatively small chunk of revenue for Boeing, which reported sales of $78 billion last year.

And Aboulafia believes Boeing will enjoy a grace period with customers like the government now that it is under new leadership, reducing the risk it will lose big contracts. NASA administrator Nelson said Saturday he was “100%" confident that the Starliner will fly with a crew again.

Robert “Kelly” Ortberg replaced Calhoun as CEO this month. Unlike the company's recent chief executives, Ortberg is an outsider who previously led aerospace manufacturer Rockwell Collins, where he developed a reputation for walking among workers on factory floors and building ties to airline and government customers.

“They are transitioning from perhaps the worst executive leadership to some of the best,” Aboulafia said. “Given the regime change underway, I think people are going to give them some slack.”

Boeing's defense division has recently won some huge contracts. It is lined up to provide Apache helicopters to foreign governments, sell 50 F-15 fighter jets to Israel as the bulk of a $20 billion deal, and build prototype surveillance planes for the Air Force under a $2.56 billion contract.

“Those are some strong tailwinds, but it's going to take a while before they get (Boeing's defense and space business) back to profitability,” Aboulafia said.

Edited August 24 by Mike J