Marcos govt abandons Sabina (Escoda) Shoal to the Chinese

[Lee]

Quote

 

PRESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has several times promised he "will not lose an inch of 'territory'' to China in the disputed areas of the South China Sea. In just two months, though, the Philippines lost the 2 trillion square inches that make up Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal on July 2 and Escoda (Sabina) Shoal just yesterday morning.

It was a result of Marcos' belligerent stance toward China, in the rather stupid thought that the US would come to the aid of the Philippines.

The US didn't, practically betraying the Philippines, as Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said only a few weeks ago on August 27 that US vessels "escorting' Philippine Coast Guard ships in the disputed areas of the South China Sea "is an entirely reasonable option."

Did Marcos himself order the BRP Teresa Magbanua to turn tail and abandon Sabina Shoal? Or was he so busy with his birthday celebrations, which included a dusk-to-dawn party that had his favorite band Duran Duran of 1980s fame performing for P55 million at the super-exclusive event, that he failed to issue instructions to his military on what to do? However, it is known that he didn't convene the National Security Council to discuss what was a matter of vital importance to the nation. Did Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. agree to hand over Escoda to the Chinese? Or was his vehement disagreement the source of the rumor that he had resigned from the Marcos government and is now sulking somewhere, refusing to talk to media?

Two shoals Marcos recently gave up to China; (inset) closer view of Mischief Reef, a major Chinese fortification near the two shoals.

Told several times by US officials of America's "ironclad" commitment to stand by the Philippines, its Coast Guard's BRP Teresa Magbanua, one of its biggest and newest ships, sailed to the Sabina Shoal on April 7, on the pretext of investigating reports that China was building artificial islands in the area.

It was, in reality, issuing a challenge to China that the shoal is within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and, therefore, according to the administration's grossly wrong interpretation, part of its sovereign territory.

However, China, which calls the area of which Escoda is part of Nansha Qundao, claims it as its outlying archipelago over which it has claimed sovereignty for at least two centuries. Many mostly colonial powers have such outlying archipelagoes — for instance the US claims Hawaiian islands as part of American territory, its outlying archipelago it forcibly grabbed in 1898. It is 2,000 kilometers from is mainland, farther than Nansha Qundao's 1,000 km distance from China.

China, however, for some inexplicable reason, let the Teresa Magbanua remain in the lagoon for four months, demanding every day that it leave the area without doing anything. The Chinese foreign ministry only lodged last August 17 a formal protest over the presence of the BRP Teresa Magbanua at Escoda Shoal, saying that it "seriously infringes on China's sovereignty, violates the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and threatens the peace and stability in the South China Sea."

Helicopter

On August 25, China intercepted fuel and food supplies headed for the vessel by undertaking maneuvers and using water cannons to drive away the boats carrying these supplies. On August 29, the Philippine military instead used a helicopter to drop supplies and fuel on the vessel, which had been going down to dangerous levels. On August 31, Chinese coast guard vessels attempted to push away the Magbanua itself by ramming and propelling it in the direction outside the shoal, a maneuver that didn't work.

That apparently prodded the Chinese to decide on a more forceful move. It told Philippine officials that if it didn't leave, it would tug the vessel out of the shoal. However, Philippine Navy spokesman Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad told media on September 11 that "one of the options is for China to tow the Magbanua out of the shoal," boasting that "there are already contingency plans in place and our Western Command also knows what to do in case this would escalate."

China's vice foreign minister September 11 told his counterpart that China will firmly uphold its sovereignty, if the Philippines does not withdraw the Magbanua from the shoal, which it refers to as Xianbin Reef. Chinese Army Lt. Gen. He Lei also said that day that the "People's Liberation Army will resolutely crush any foreign hostile encroachment" in the South China Sea, obviously referring to the Magbanua "encroaching" Sabina Shoal.

Just the other day, National Security Council assistant director general for communications, Jonathan Malaya, in a press conference said: "As a sovereign nation, the Philippines will resolutely defend its territorial integrity, sovereign rights and jurisdiction." Maybe it was that general's "crushing" talk: The next morning, Magbanua left the shoal, in effect abandoning it to Chinese control.

Occupation

Such physical control by the Chinese is crucial, as international law has viewed what is called "effective occupation" as the most crucial justification for a country's claim of sovereignty over a disputed area.

While most of the islands and features above the sea, even at high tide in the Spratlys, have been occupied and mostly claimed by the Philippines, China and Vietnam, a few areas had not been actively claimed nor patrolled by these three countries in a way putting these in a sort of limbo in terms of sovereignty. Among these were Scarborough, Sabina (Escoda) and Second Thomas (Ayungin) shoals.

However, the Aquino 3rd administration's moves to actively control Scarborough and the Marcos government's actions on Second Thomas and Sabina shoals prodded China to undertake their own reactive measures to put these firmly under Chinese control.

Before 2012, Filipino fishermen and even vessels of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources could freely enter Scarborough's lagoon. After the 2012 Scarborough stand-off, however, the Chinese barred such vessels from even approaching the shoal. Claiming that the Philippines was plotting to have the Magbanua anchor or even be deliberately grounded in Sabina permanently to symbolize its sovereignty there, just as the Sierra Madre was, the Chinese would likely, from hereon, block any Filipino vessel from entering the area.

On July 2, the Philippines claimed that it had reached an agreement with China, which allowed it to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre with food and other essential supplies for the sustenance of Marines stationed there, except for repair materials. The reality is that the "agreement" was merely the terms of "surrender" for the Philippines of Ayungin shoal, which is the reason the government hasn't released it to the public.

Under this agreement, the PCG and other Philippine government vessels are allowed by the Chinese to approach Ayungin and resupply the Sierra Madre only upon Chinese approval, undertaken only once a month, and with a two-day advance notice. That's a de facto exercise of sovereignty by China.

China's physical control of Sabina and Second Thomas Shoals is extremely bad news for the US. The Second Thomas and Sabina shoals are each bigger than Mischief Reef, which China had transformed in 2012 in retaliation against the suit that the Philippines brought against it into an island fortress complete with ports, airstrips, barracks and communication facilities. Seven of its other reefs were similarly made into islands, on which were built military encampments.

China could claim that the US has been building nine military bases in the Philippines, several of which could be armed with missiles aimed at its facilities in the Spratlys. It could claim that it has the right to defend itself from US aggression by turning Escoda and Sabina shoals into artificial islands through reclamation, on which it will build fortresses similar to those in its other facilities in the Spratlys.

It has the right to do so, China would claim, since legally and in practice, after the Philippines abandoned them, Sabina and Escoda shoals are its sovereign territory, where it has the right to anything it wants.

While China has not issued any statement on Magbanua's withdrawal, Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, as chairman of the National Maritime Council, at noon yesterday issued a statement claiming that the vessel sailed back to its homeport in Palawan "mission accomplished" but had "diminished daily provisions."

"After she has been resupplied and repaired, and her crew recharged, she will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission, along with other PCG and AFP assets, as defenders of our sovereignty," Bersamin said.

What mission did Magbanua "accomplish"? Making us the laughingstock of the world and strengthening China's hold over the shoal?

 

https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/09/16/opinion/columns/marcos-govt-abandons-sabina-escoda-shoal-to-the-chinese/1971720

[Lee]

8 minutes ago, Lee said:

Or was he so busy with his birthday celebrations, which included a dusk-to-dawn party that had his favorite band Duran Duran of 1980s fame performing for P55 million at the super-exclusive event

Nothing says tone deaf like spending almost a million dollars to have a has been band play at your B day bash while Filipinos struggle to get by everyday.

[Old55]

2 hours ago, Lee said:

Nothing says tone deaf like spending almost a million dollars to have a has been band play at your B day bash while Filipinos struggle to get by everyday.

Not at all. Marcos and his cronies are so far removed from the rabble why would they even give a thought about them?

[BrettGC]

6 hours ago, Lee said:

Nothing says tone deaf like spending almost a million dollars to have a has been band play at your B day bash while Filipinos struggle to get by everyday.

 

3 hours ago, Old55 said:

Not at all. Marcos and his cronies are so far removed from the rabble why would they even give a thought about them?

I think his State of the Nation address showed just how out of touch he is particularly in relation to infrastructure outside of class 3 cities and above not on Luzon.  

His band choice says a lot about his taste.  I remember the only thing that interested me about Duran Duran was the uncut version of their "Girls on Film" music video. When you look it up you may or may not thank me (nudity warning). 

[Lee]

With so much musical talent in this country, Bong could have selected a Filipino band to play the Duran Duran covers.

Surely there are musicians/singers in the country that could mimic the bands music and singing with few problems.

Perhaps set up a national contest (with prize money awarded) to find the best of the lot.

I would suggest that there are few people under the age of 40 that have ever heard of DD.

 

Edited Monday at 09:53 AM by Lee

[Snowy79]

I've been watching a few videos on Tik Tok recently and in some of them it certainly looks like the Philippines ships were the ones hitting the Chinese. 

Don't get me wrong there are some definite ones where the Chinese were the aggressors but in others you could see no bow waves on the Chinese vessels or signs of a wash from the rear as the Philippines ships collided. In some pro Philippines videos you could clearly see the footage was manipulated as the Philippines ship had it's port side to the starboard of the Chinese vessel then the video jumped and the ships were facing the opposite way. 

[JJReyes]

Last night the China-Philippines dispute was a featured story on CBS 60 Minutes.  The main focus was whether or not the United States will risk war with China because of their treaty obligations with the Philippines.  In the meantime, the US gave the Philippines a defensive missile system that is capable of hitting Mainland China.  The Chinese are livid.  They are also furious about the new American bases in Northern Luzon, but their main purpose is to protect Taiwan.  

[Possum]

That area of the sea is considered part of the Philippines EEZ and the dispute was settled when China refused to participate in international arbitration concerning the matter. The issue is not the little land there or the fishing it is the oil under the sea there. Ultimately that's what this is about.

Summary:

On July 12, 2016, the arbitral tribunal adjudicating the Philippines’ case against China in the South China Sea ruled overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines, determining that major elements of China’s claim—including its nine-dash line, recent land reclamation activities, and other activities in Philippine waters—were unlawful. Predictably, China reacted negatively to the ruling, maintaining it was “null and void.” China may take assertive and inflammatory steps to defend its position. The extent to which China abides by the ruling in the long term, and to which the international community supports and seeks to enforce the ruling, will have consequences for the utility of international law as a tool to ensure the peaceful, stable, and lawful use of the seas going forward.

https://www.uscc.gov/research/south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling-what-happened-and-whats-next

Edited Monday at 03:17 PM by Possum

[scott h]

8 hours ago, JJReyes said:

The main focus was whether or not the United States will risk war with China because of their treaty obligations with the Philippines

Only if China actually commits an overt act of war. Sinking a ship using offensive weaponry (gunfire, missiles or torpedoes) a laser, water hose or a fender bender won't cut it, no matter what Philippine officials think. The US is really not serious about defending Philippine territorial claims in the WPS. If they were they would have already placed economic sanctions against China and its leaders. The only sanctions in place against China right now reference Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are the first indication of US foreign policy. 

6 hours ago, Possum said:

dispute was settled

It surely has been settled to China's satisfaction. They have already achieved both their strategic and tactical objectives. The tactical by having physical occupation of land features (which would take a Tarawa style operation to remove) in the disputed area as well as positive influence over waterborne movement. Strategical they have achieved Defense in Depth, they have pushed back any potential threat to their "homeland" by several thousand kilometers in the South China sea theater. 

China holds all the cards. There are only two ways for the Philippines to gain control over "their" territory. By offensive military action, and they do not possess that ability. Or by the western countries applying so much economic pressure (boycotts, tariffs, trade embargos) that it drives China to its financial knees, which the west cannot do because it will drive their consumer economies into a depression, and they will be voted out of office, which is the last thing a politician will allow.

So, in my view this is pretty much a done deal and is now just being used as a wag the dog tactic to keep the civilian populace distracted from their real worries. 

[BrettGC]

With regards to treaty obligations, as Scott hinted at, it should be remembered that there's a huge difference between Economic Exclusion Zones (EEZ) and territorial waters.  12 nautical miles for territorial, 200 nautical miles for EEZ.  Soveriegnty hasn't been encroached until they've hit territorial waters.  For the most part, treaties speak in terms of sovereignty or similar.  It's all made more complicated by seafaring laws such as "right of free passage". 

Edited Monday at 10:19 PM by BrettGC