Slowdown To Hit Rp Exports, Remittances

[Mr Lee]

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/news/news...rts-remittancesCITIGROUP SAYSSlowdown to hit RP exports, remittances By Doris DumlaoPhilippine Daily InquirerFirst Posted 23:23:00 12/14/2008THE GLOBAL economic downturn will likely take its heaviest toll on exports and overseas remittances in the first quarter of next year, US banking giant Citigroup said in its global macroeconomic outlook for 2009."Global capital flows and financial intermediation are likely to be more regulated and liquidity more dear, leading to higher intermediation costs and less investment. Global real interest rates are also likely to end the cycle higher, compounding the headwinds for investment," New York-based Citi economist Don Hanna said.In the case of the Philippines, Citi said the impact on exports and remittances from overseas Filipino workers would start to be felt in the first three months of next year, thus putting more Filipinos out of work.And despite higher deficit spending, Citi expects the country to post a gross domestic product growth of only 3 percent in 2009."Recovery to 4.6 percent in 2010 could materialize from election spending and revived exports," Citi economist for the Philippines Jun Trinidad said.Hanna said the effects of the global recession would further strain emerging markets in 2009, adding that long-term growth and asset appreciation prospects in emerging markets will likely suffer even after the shock of the recession fades."The magnitude of the external shock is exposing selected weaknesses in government, corporate and banking balance sheets," he said.